Texas Spring 2026

[Cpv17]

CB all around yesterday, essentially no rain except for random very fat raindrops. There were a couple of severe warnings in nearby counties, almost wondering if random hail stones blew out from the storms NW of here and melted on the way down.

Idk about you, but I keep getting a bunch of small rain events at my house. A quarter inch here and a half inch there. All the heavy stuff keeps missing me. I’ve still managed to pick up 4” this month so I’m not complaining much.

6.48" at my home in Cypress near 529/99 in the last 10 days. MUCH needed, but a break from the heavier rains would be nice.

Latest drought update still has me in an extreme drought in central Wharton County. I need a lot more.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 dont think that drought outlook includes rain from the last 2 days, updated outlook comes out next week, should look different

[ElectricStorm]

Surprised today is only a single hatch. EF3+ tornadoes are absolutely possible with any storm that can fire off the dryline and become sustained. Feels like the perfect day for a low probability CIG2 but I guess not

[wxman22]

Very impressive parameters here today with CAPE values of 3500-4000j/kg and a strong low level jet in place. Thank goodness there is not a strong system or disturbance to break the cap locally.The cap can still break but the chances are low.Some CAMS do show the cap breaking though.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 dont think that drought outlook includes rain from the last 2 days, updated outlook comes out next week, should look different

We got 1.50” Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Not sure if that will count towards it. Maybe around half an inch after that.

[Brent]

Quite a tornado in Enid and around Vance AFB around 8pm last night. Might be the tornado of the year so far

Amazingly despite rumors no deaths so far

[rwfromkansas]

Guess the site is working for a brief period today.

The Enid tornado was amazing. Sad for the damage though.

Looks like DFW won’t get anything at least this weekend. More likely far NE.

Dryline too far east this time.

[TomballEd]

Quite a tornado in Enid and around Vance AFB around 8pm last night. Might be the tornado of the year so far

Amazingly despite rumors no deaths so far

I was watching Ryan Hall until he started describing local TV news showing the tornado so I went to one of the TV station YouTube channels. Dang but OKC TV does tornadoes right, always have chasers on the big ones.

NE Texas in Enhanced, MBY is in a Marginal but has SIG 1 hail. HGX discussion mentions it, most storms will be N/NE of SETX but any storm that can get going is a potential hailer.

CAMs look mostly dry but the 12Z HRRR actually busts out a storm in Harris County.. NAM forecast sounding, near 40 knots deep shear, 8* lapse rates and over 3000 J/Kg forecast CAPE would probably be good for SIG 1 hail. I can use the rain. We have 4 (soon 5) cars, I park my 2015 outside because it is a 2015. Hail dimples I can live with, windshield damage is no bueno

[Brent]

Probably ef4 in Enid amazing nobody was killed

I should mention it missed the highest population. The AFB is on the south side of the city

[wxman22]

Enhanced risk issued in the ArkLaTex today…

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A band of mainly sub-severe thunderstorms ongoing this morning from
eastern OK into AR and southern MO is being aided by southwesterly
warm/moist advection at low levels. With time, this forcing should
weaken, and a decrease in convective intensity should continue
through late morning. Outflow from this convection is forecast to
extend from south-central/southeast OK into AR this afternoon, and
should serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorms later
today. Daytime heating of a moist airmass already present across
much of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley
will aid in the development of moderate to strong instability by mid
afternoon along/south of the residual outflow and east of a surface
dryline extending from northeast to south-central TX. The greatest
instability should exist across southeast OK/northeast TX, where
steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still exist. A weak surface
low should also be in place across northeast TX by mid to late
afternoon.

Large-scale forcing aloft will remain fairly nebulous/weak across
the southern Plains this afternoon, as a prominent/closed
upper-level low remains centered over south-central Canada. Still,
multiple robust thunderstorms should develop by 19-22Z across
southeast OK along/near the residual outflow boundary as MLCIN
becomes minimal with robust diurnal heating, and as westerly
mid/upper-level flow modestly strengthens across the ArkLaTex
through early evening. This convection will become organized and
likely supercellular given the presence of around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail (potentially up to
1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these
cells initially. Lower confidence in convective initiation exists
with southwestward extent along the dryline in TX, but at least a
conditional/low threat for severe hail remains apparent.

With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind
threat as convection spreads east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex
through the evening. One or more clusters may also redevelop along
the outflow from ongoing convection across the lower MS Valley this
afternoon, with a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds.
Low-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong (15-25 kt at 850
mb), but ample instability and the presence of locally backed
near-surface winds near the outflow boundary may support enough 0-1
km SRH for a few tornadoes, especially across southeast OK into the
ArkLaTex with any persistent supercells. An Enhanced Risk has been
introduced across this region given increased confidence in multiple
supercells with significant severe hail potential developing through
the afternoon/evening.

[wxman22]

Probably ef4 in Enid amazing nobody was killed

I should mention it missed the highest population. The AFB is on the south side of the city

That tornado was incredible to see live on air yesterday.

[rwfromkansas]

Further north, Kansas had smaller tornadoes, and one hit Lake Kahola, a small lake where my brother lives on the weekends. I think it missed their cabin, and luckily it was narrow...

[wxman22]

Yesterday and today are examples of what I meant by smaller scale events that you get during El Niño’s in the southern plains. You get enhanced corridors of severe weather in localized to regional areas. Even without having the support of a strong cyclone. The disturbances moving along the jet along with high CAPE can be enough to give you robust severe weather this time of year.

[txtwister78]

Yesterday and today are examples of what I meant by smaller scale events that you get during El Niño’s in the southern plains. You get enhanced corridors of severe weather in localized to regional areas. Even without having the support of a strong cyclone. The disturbances moving along the jet along with high CAPE can be enough to give you robust severe weather this time of year.

Actually not that unusual with these dryline setups. While drylines on their own tend to be inefficient makers of widespread thunderstorms however when they develop (obviously with other parameters in place) they can become super charged quickly.

What you had yesterday was more of an example of what we see in late May or early June as dryline activity typically becomes more featured.

Obviously as we make the transition to el nino (not quite there just yet) the pattern in general remains more active anyway even in neutral across the southern plains with greater frequency.

[Stratton23]

Severe threat looks conditional today, lots of cloud cover in place with a strong cap, maybe 1-2 isolated cells pop up, but i dont see much happening

[rwfromkansas]

You would think that cold fronts coming down could mean severe weather, but apparently not. Monday looks big across the Midwest again, though. Hard to complain about missing out on this after getting a new roof last year, but it would be nice to have something to watch at least nearby on Radarscope.

[cstrunk]

Latest HRRR runs show isolated supercell development just east of Dallas. Supercells are already forming farther north in south central OK. More development is likely in SE OK near the Red River. All activity should generally move east or southeast (especially when rooted in the warm sector with a greater hail/tornado potential).

[Ntxw]

Contrary to last weekend, this weekend will be hotter. Cooler by later into next week. This will all but seal April as yet another well above normal month (3F-5F range, but not top 5 at least.) It will likely be wetter than normal for most.

The upper echelon of El Ninos ('82, '97, '15) were all below to well below normal in May. Will we get a below normal month finally or is that now a pipe dream? I've been wrong every time I try to predict a below normal month essentially but am hopeful.

[wxman22]

Severe threat looks conditional today, lots of cloud cover in place with a strong cap, maybe 1-2 isolated cells pop up, but i dont see much happening

Yeah for SE Texas but It doesn’t look conditional in the ArkLaTex today if the CAMs are correct.

[wxman22]

45% added for Hail.