SPAC: MAILA - Post-Tropical

[sasha_B]

6z GFS takes Maila to 921 hPa with surface winds just over 115 kt at +72h, though as is often the case with lower-resolution model outputs the wind-pressure relationship doesn't quite add up - a 115 kt storm would be unlikely to attain that depth at ～10°S, and a 921 hPa cyclone would likely produce winds closer to 130 kt. Either way, that sort of solution would land Maila among the strongest and most intense storms of the year so far.

Worth noting that the GFS remains the top end of the guidance envelope, though. HAFS shows Maila peaking closer to 100 kt; HWRF scarcely gets above 90 kt; AI-GFS shows steady weakening (???) over the next 96h, and the Euro shows a fairly steady state in the short-term, with serious intensification only beginning once the storm starts to accelerate southwest towards Australia beyond the 96-hour range.

Maila is clearly intensifying right now, though, so I'm not going to lend too much weight to the lower-end model solutions. Fwiw the JTWC doesn't seem to have done so, either - their forecast peak as of 15z is 110 kt at +36 hours.

[sasha_B]

Warm spot / possible eye starting to take shape near Cyclone Maila's center on IR as of 1830z. CI 5.0 per JTWC's 1730z satellite bulletin (no eye pattern; T5.0 for LLC embedded in B). That said, there's still a substantial asymmetry/weakness in the CDO (warm swath in the west and NW quadrants), so it's not clear that this feature will be persistent or stable. 18z fix is a rather conservative 80 kt/970 hPa, but I suppose JTWC has to factor in the objective estimates, which have been stuck below T4.0 for more than 12h despite a clear developing trend. As with Vaianu, ADT does not seem to be handling this cyclone well; they're now more than a full T# lower than subjective estimates for both storms.

12z GFS continues to forecast a peak depth of <930 hPa. Other models remain much less bullish.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_au/status/2040896332282335475

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2040922123418378359

[Hurricanehink]

The Trobriand Islands off eastern Papua New Guinea has a population of about 60,000. I can’t imagine the rainfall they’re about to receive over the coming days.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

At 10:00 pm AEST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 9.9 degrees South, 155.4 degrees East, 505 kilometres west of Honiara and 910 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea. The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days, but confidence is increasing in Maila moving towards the Far North Queensland coast later in the week, potentially crossing the coast on the weekend.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour

Location
within 35 kilometres of 9.8 degrees South, 156.0 degrees East, 440 kilometres west of Honiara and 970 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea. The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days, but confidence is increasing in Maila moving towards the Far North Queensland coast later in the week, potentially crossing the coast on the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila in the Solomon Sea to move towards the Far North Queensland coast on the weekend.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
None.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 10:00 am Australian Eastern Standard Time
At 10:00 am AEST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 10.0 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East, 410 kilometres west of Honiara and 1010 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
southeast at 7 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea. The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far North Queensland coast, potentially crossing the coast on the weekend or early next week.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

30P MAILA 260407 1200 9.7S 156.3E SHEM 110 953

[Hurricane2022]

30P MAILA 260407 1200 9.7S 156.3E SHEM 110 953

Seems quite a bit conservative to me. I would go with 120 - 125 kts.

[sasha_B]

30P MAILA 260407 1200 9.7S 156.3E SHEM 110 953

Seems quite a bit conservative to me. I would go with 120 - 125 kts.

Agreed. There's a consensus of T6.5 between objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates, and there has been for several hours now. I'd place Maila's current intensity at 125 kt and between 928～933 hPa (derived from CKZ, assuming forward velocity of <5 kt ).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

At 10:00 pm AEST

Intensity
category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 9.8 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East, 405 kilometres west of Honiara and 1000 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
slow moving

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea. The steering influences are nearly balanced and Maila is expected to remain slow moving tonight before it begins turning west southwest during Wednesday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula during the weekend or early next week.

[cycloneye]

30P MAILA 260407 1800 9.5S 156.0E SHEM 125 930

[cycloneye]

After that 125kt peak, it is slowly weakening.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila at 110 knots in the Solomon Sea. Maila has moved slowly during the past several hours, with recent motion towards the north-northwest. Position is based on animated EIR imagery with good confidence, with a well-defined eye remaining evident. Maila has undergone a period of rapid intensification, increasing by around 40 knots in the past 24 hours. Over the last few hours, however, Maila has shown some signs of slight weakening, with narrowing of the cold dense overcast on the eastern side of the system and brief elongation of the eye, suggesting short-term structural fluctuations. Intensity is assessed at 110 knots based on a synthesis of recent Dvorak analysis and objective guidance.

[cycloneye]

At 4:00 pm AEST

Intensity
category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 8.7 degrees South, 155.8 degrees East, 465 kilometres west of Honiara and 960 kilometres east of Port Moresby

Movement
north at 6 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea. Steering influences are weak, and Maila is expected to remain slow-moving in the Solomon Sea and well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days.

Over the weekend, Maila is forecast to move into the Coral Sea and track towards the Far North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula early next week.