2026 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Is open)

[cycloneye]

I know the interest or enthusiastic view is not too high for this 2026 NATL season because of the negative factors mainly +ENSO, but common, only 14 participants in 3 days? If you are a vivid tropical weather follower, you look at things no matter if the panoramic view is not positive or viceversa. Come and participate even if the season looks bleak. Still expect 100+.

[Ulf]

10/5/2 ACE 80 Preliminary

Predicting that this would be the first season to be below average on all metrics since 2015. And hoping that it would also be a quiet one where the 2 majors will be fish storms.

[jconsor]

I think the significant atmospheric coupling of the El Nino will be later and more bumpy than implied by most of the seasonal models, due to the background -IPO state (warmth in the NW Pacific from off Japan to south of AK and also in SW Pacific east of New Zealand) encouraging low pressure/convection near the Maritime Continent and making it harder for solid WWBs to propagate eastward.

Another factor I think that may make this season different than a typical stronger El Nino is the likelihood of a strong WAM and Atlantic Nino by this summer. The persistent -VP over the eastern Atlantic and west Africa since March and expected to persist next 4-6 weeks IMHO is a tipoff of both of the above (strong WAM and Atlantic Nino development).

Finally, I would expect significant MDR warming (relative to normal) in the next few months given the above trends.

Top analog years right now are 1951, 1963, 1969, 2002, 2009, 2015 (but weighting the first three more because of the WAM factor).

So my outlook is 12/7/4, ACE of 110.

[cycloneye]

We are up to 16 in 5 days.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

We are up to 16 in 5 days.

Lack of enthusiasm will do that