2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

The deep water heat content is very warm.

[cycloneye]

CPC 3/23/26 weekly update has niño 3.4 at -0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 +1.2ºC

[Kingarabian]

Per the CFS, it has a combination of a slow moving MJO in phase 7/8 and an equatorial Rossby wave that is aiding and prolonging this WWB event.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2035526071064662360

[cycloneye]

Boom.

[WaveBreaking]

There’s a burst of TC activity in both the WPAC and the SPAC at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs that coincides with a WWB.
Let’s see if this sticks around or is just a one-off thing.

[Yellow Evan]

Been on guidance for a few days now and probably needed for super scenarios to verify.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow: Been on guidance for a few days now and probably needed for super scenarios to verify.

Operational GFS showing it in the longer range:

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2036526247702921371

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS both have twin systems in the 16 day range. Let's see if it sticks.

[Yellow Evan]

Google Deep Mind FVN3 has slowly been picking up on the twins, but more bullish on the SPAC side.

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Odds for a super El Niño would get a boost if twin tropical cyclones form in the West Pacific during April.

The circulation around these storms would cause another vigorous westerly wind burst, sending yet more warm ocean water toward the east.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2036812849843196070

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

[Iceresistance]

That's one crazy upwelling event:

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmZZ4.png

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
The upcoming westerly wind burst (WWB) over the West/Central Pacific has a lot of similarity to the April 1997 event that helped push that year's El Niño to extreme values. This doesn't guarantee we'll get a 1997 repeat this year, but it is a good indicator that a strong El Niño is possible, even likely.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2037143694827036961

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2037160582139482213

[Kingarabian]

That's one crazy upwelling event:
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmZZ4.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmZZ4.png

Pretty shallow over those parts. It'll fluctuate a little more

[Kingarabian]

Models also finally showing pressure near Tahiti dropping for most of April. That should tank the SOI if it happens.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That's one crazy upwelling event:
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmZZ4.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmZZ4.png

Maybe a response to trades being a bit stronger out there in the short term and providing a bit of a reversal of some of the singificant warming the 1+2 region experienced, but what really matters is the noticeable warming of the 3.4 region on that map.

[Ntxw]

April is definitely looking like the springboard month for El Nino. -SOI coming, potential twin cyclones, and continued westerly wind bursts of significant magnitudes right at the time when you look for signs on the other side of the spring barrier. It would take a monumental bust of epic proportions, but looking like the most impactful Nino of this decade potentially.

[cycloneye]

The models continue bullish on the duo on boths sides of equator that will give a big boost to El Niño prospects.