Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
353 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

* Unsettled weather across Puerto Rico today, with periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon hours, leading to localized ponding of water in
urban and low-lying areas.

* More unstable conditions expected from Thursday into Friday across
the islands, as a wetter and more dynamic pattern increases
the potential for widespread showers, thunderstorms, and
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

* Moderate risk of rip currents across northern and exposed
beaches, with hazardous marine conditions promoting life-
threatening currents in the surf zone.

* Variable weather conditions across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
with passing showers at times, but overall limited duration of
rainfall activity.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A fairly active weather pattern was observed overnight, with
persistent showers from Luquillo westward into Morovis. Showers
were strong, especially around 12 AM across Corozal, Morovis,
Naranjito, and along Rio Grande and Canovanas. By 2 AM, showers
had diminished across the interior sections, but were still
spreading northward into Dorado, Toa Alta, Manati, and Vega Baja.
This increase in showers led to rises along small streams across
most of the affected municipalities. Several flood advisories and
warnings were in effect from late night into the early morning
hours. As of 3 AM, the bulk of the showers was affecting
municipalities from Manati eastward into the San Juan area.
Rainfall accumulations were significant across most of the
interior areas; radar estimates ranged from 2 to 5 inches, with
the highest amounts in Corozal, Morovis, and Naranjito, where
estimates reached 9 inches. Overnight temperatures were in the low
60s across the mountain areas, with some upper 50s due to the
persistent shower activity, while coastal areas remained in the
mid-70s.

For today, a similar weather pattern is expected, with a mid-
level closed low promoting instability and favorable conditions
for a convective pattern, leading to the development of strong
showers across the region. At the surface, winds will remain from
the east-southeast in response to a combination of a surface high
pressure extending from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean
and an elongated surface trough. All that, and instability aloft
from a 250 MB +80 knots jet stream will result in another active
day. Therefore, residents and visitors can expect moderate to
strong showers in the northeastern sections in the morning,
followed by deep convection across the northwestern quadrant. With
the heaviest showers, urban flooding is expected along with rapid
rises in small streams across the interior and western PR.

On Thursday into Friday, the overall synoptic pattern is forecast
to transition to a more unstable and dynamically favorable regime
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a deep
upper-level trough interacting with a strengthening subtropical
jet. This interaction will result in a jet streak exceeding 100
knots across the region, enhancing upper-level divergence and
promoting large-scale ascent, which will in turn support a more
active convective pattern across the islands. Model guidance
indicates a notable cooling aloft, with 500 mb temperatures
decreasing to around -9 to -10 °C, contributing to increased
instability, while a deep layer of moisture will be present as
relative humidity values between 850 and 500 mb rise to levels
exceeding two standard deviations above climatological normals,
indicating an anomalously moist column. At the surface,
precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.75 and
1.90 inches, near the 75th percentile for this time of year,
providing sufficient moisture for widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Overall, this combination of strong
upper-level forcing, increased instability, and abundant moisture
will support a wetter and more active weather pattern, with an
increased potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours, along with an
elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding in susceptible
areas.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A mid- to upper-level low will move northeast of the northeastern
Caribbean between Saturday and Sunday. This feature will induce
trade wind perturbations that will periodically move across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, promoting passing showers,
particularly across windward areas. Expect a variable pattern
through the weekend, with a mix of sunshine and brief periods of
showery weather, mainly during the overnight and morning hours as
these disturbances advect across the region. During the afternoon
hours, local effects and sea breeze convergence will support
isolated to scattered convection, mainly across the interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico.

From Monday through midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough
interacting with an approaching frontal boundary will promote a more
unsettled, wetter pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Increasing moisture and instability will support a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy to locally windy
conditions are also possible as winds strengthen behind the frontal
boundary.

Coastal conditions will deteriorate during this period. A long-
period northerly swell arriving late Monday night could produce
dangerous breaking waves and hazardous coastal conditions through at
least midweek, peaking around Tuesday.

The potential impacts for the first part of the holiday week include
urban and small-stream flooding, a limited risk of flash flooding,
isolated thunderstorms with lightning, breezy to windy conditions,
life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and possible coastal
flooding along vulnerable north- and west-facing coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals; however,
VCSH and SHRA will persist along TJSJ until 25/15Z. Brief MVFR to
IFR conditions are anticipated across TJSJ and TJBQ from 25/16Z
to 25/21Z due to passing SHRA, with lower CIGS and reduced
VIS possible. Shower activity developing across the interior and
western mountains will result in cloud coverage affecting FL020 to
FL060. Winds will remain generally from the E to ENE at around
10–15 knots, with higher gusts near shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A weak surface high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will
merge with a stronger high pressure over the north central Atlantic
by the end of the workweek. This will promote light to moderate
trades for the next several days. Seas will remain at 5 feet or less
through the weekend. Late in the weekend and into early next week, a
large swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet across the
Atlantic waters and passages. Also, winds will increase around 20
knots due to an approaching front and stronger surface high pressure
developing over the western Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Mar 25 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through the
weekend across the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and
across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, as rip
currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By
early next week, a large northerly swell and increasing winds will
cause large breaking waves that can lead to high surf conditions and
minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coastlines of the
islands.

[TomballEd]

Saw 100 knot jet streak mentioned. Here in Texas that might suggest severe weather, even hail. I imagine hail is infrequent that far south but does it happen at all?

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

* Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend, bringing
periods of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially during
the afternoon. This may lead to urban and small stream flooding,
along with quick rises in rivers and streams, particularly in
areas that receive repeated rainfall.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms may lead to ponding of water and on roads and in
low-lying areas.

* A moderate risk of rip current will continue across the northern
and eastern beaches. These currents can still pull swimmers
away from shore, even in otherwise calm-looking conditions.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate early next week
as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result in Small
Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements. In addition,
hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions are
expected, and high Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Doppler radar detected shower activity developing over the waters
during the nighttime hours, with some showers occasionally
brushing the windward coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. This activity is associated with well-above-normal
moisture that persists across the region. Blended Total
Precipitable Water (TPW) satelite data indicate values at 120 to
140 percent of normal, indicating a significant positive moisture
anomaly relative to climatology. This above-normal moisture is
also reflected at mid-levels, as indicated by 850-700 mb and
700-500 mb Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW) satellite
data.

Expect showery weather pattern to persist through the morning
hours across eastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the smaller
islands. This will result in ponding of water on roadways and in
poorly-drained areas. Occasionally, these showers may become heavy
for short durations, reducing visibility and creating slippery
road conditions. For this afternoon, another active period is
expected as aboven-normal moisture combines with diurnal heating
and local effects. Under southeasterly steering winds, expect
showers and isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the
interior, eventually moving and redeveloping over the northwestern
quadrant of Puerto Rico. Streamers downstream of El Yunque could
also affect the San Juan metropolitan area.

For the rest of the short-term period, a more unsettled weather
pattern is expected to develop. Currently, a deep-layered trough
is impacting the western Caribbean, particularly over Cuba. This
trough will move eastward and deepen in the vicinity of Puerto
Rico and the USVI, particularly to the north, although the
southern edge of the trough will extend over the area. Model
guidance suggest that this feature will evolve into a cut-off low,
with a 100-knot subtropical jet over the forecast area, which
will enhance divergence and ventilation aloft.

The GFS Galvez-Davison Index indicates the potential for heavy-
producing showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, expect a limited
to elevated flooding threat. Excessive runoff may be particularly
enhanced due to saturated soils fro previous rainfall, further
increasing the flooding risk. Elevated streamflows are also
present and could result in river overflows in watershed basins
receiving the highest rainfall accumulations. Gust wind conditions
capable of blowing around loose objects and tree limbs may also
occur with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms. Landslides
cannot be ruled out in areas of steep terrain.

A gradual decrease in the frequency of showers and thunderstorms
is anticipated on Saturday. This is likely due to the induced
surface trough northeast of Puerto Rico, which will promote
northerly winds and advect a drier airmass over the region. Model
guidance suggests that relative humidities at 850-700 mb and
700-500 mb will plummet to near- or below-normal levels by the
end of the period. As a result a reduction in rainfall activity
will lead to improved weather conditions, with lower flooding
potential across the islands. However, lingering moisture and
local effects could still support isolated showers over the area.



&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A persistent subtropical jet stream will remain over the region
while a series of short-wave troughs pass just north of the area,
providing periods of favorable upper-level support for ascent. At
the surface, a strengthening high pressure system over the western
Atlantic will promote prevailing northeast winds. Winds will start
moderate to fresh on Sunday, then quickly increase to fresh to
strong through midweek, becoming more easterly by late Wednesday
night. Sunday will be relatively drier as a mid-level ridge promotes
subsidence and drier air entrainment, limiting vertical development.
From Monday onward, the ridge weakens, allowing deeper moisture to
spread across the region and resulting in a wetter and more unstable
pattern. Stronger winds will favor frequent passing trade wind
showers throughout the day, with additional convection and possible
afternoon thunderstorms depending on local conditions and available
heating.

Hazard risks are expected to increase through the period, although
some uncertainty remains regarding the exact magnitude and timing of
impacts. Wind impacts will begin on Sunday and become elevated by
midweek, resulting in breezy to windy conditions that may affect
outdoor activities and travel. Although conditions on Sunday will be
relatively drier, localized flooding impacts remain possible.
Flooding risk is expected to increase from Monday onward, supporting
elevated to locally significant impacts, including urban and small-
stream flooding and a limited risk of flash flooding. Thunderstorm
chances will also increase through the period, with lightning and
erratic wind behavior posing additional hazards. Overall, conditions
are expected to transition from relatively low hazard levels on
Sunday to a more active pattern by midweek, with wind, rainfall, and
lightning risks all trending upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across all terminals, however, brief
MVFR/IFR conds are posbl due to reduced VIS/CIGs in SHRA/TSRA,
especially during afternoon hrs. VCSH will affect TIST/TISX, with
VCTS/TSRA posbl across interior and W PR, mainly impacting
TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may result in mtn obsc across
interior PR. Winds may become light/vrb overnight, then increase
after 26/14Z. Sfc winds will be ESE-SE at 8-15 kt with higher gust
near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A surface high pressure will develop over the north central Atlantic
during the next few days, and settle over the Azores late in the
weekend. Meanwhile, a series of weak surface troughs are expected to
linger over the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week,
before another front moves over the local area early next week. This
weather pattern will promote mostly light to moderate east to
southeast trades through early Friday, before turning more east to
northeast for the rest of the period. Stronger winds are expected
with the approaching front.

Seas will remain at 5 feet or less through the weekend. Marine
conditions will gradually deteriorate early next week, as a large
swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet and spread across
the local Atlantic waters and passages for most of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Thu Mar 26 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through the
weekend across the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and
across the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, as rip
currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.
Across the southern and western beaches of PR, the risk will remain
low through the period. However, by early next week, a large
northerly swell and increasing winds will cause large breaking waves
that can lead to high surf conditions and minor coastal flooding, as
well as life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic coastlines
of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Saw 100 knot jet streak mentioned. Here in Texas that might suggest severe weather, even hail. I imagine hail is infrequent that far south but does it happen at all?

Sometimes hail falls especially in the mountains with a strong thunderstorm.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
133 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

* An unsettled and wet weather pattern driven by a trough will
continue across the region, with the most active period expected
today and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

* This may lead to urban and small stream flooding, along with quick
river rises and streams in areas receiving repeated rainfall.
Landslides and rockfall are also possible with this setup. Some
thunderstorms may reach near-severe strength, producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and pea-sized hail.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms may result in ponding of water on roads and in low-
lying areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result in
Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements, with hazardous
breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions possible. High Surf
Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

Early in the night, the most active portion of the trough was
located north of Puerto Rico, accompanied by a line of strong
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms were evident in GOES-19 infrared
imagery and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data. Most of
the activity remained over Atlantic waters, although some brushed
the northern narrow strip of Puerto Rico. Expect this pattern to
persist for the rest of the night into the morning hours.

As previously discussed, a wet and unsettled weather pattern is
expected today though at least Saturday, with today and tonight
being the most active period as the trough deepens into a cutoff low
at upper levels. The most active portion of the trough is still
expected to remain to the north. However, the subtropical jet will
intensify into a 90-100-knot jet streak near or over the forecast
area, enhancing divergence and ventilation aloft. Cold air advection
at mid-levels will result in 500 mb temperatures dropping to
between -8 to -10 Celsius, prompting steeper lapse rates across
the area.

These favorable dynamics will combine with well above-normal column
moisture. Therfore, expect another active day, particularly in the
afternoon, as favorable dynamics and above-normal moisture interacts
with diurnal heating and local effects. Elevated streamflows and
saturated soils from previous rainfall will increase the risk of
flooding. According to model guidance, largest rainfall
accumulations are expected over interior and western/northwestern
Puerto Rico this afternoon under a southeasterly wind flow. At
coastal areas, particularly along rivers such as Rio Culebrina,
Guanajibo, Anasco, Manati and others, overflow is possible due to
excess runoff from earlier rainfall. This could impact roads and low-
water crossings may become impassable, especially at night when
flood hazards are more difficult to recognize. Landslides and
rockfall are also possible with this setup. Given the favorable
upper-level dynamics, some thunderstorms may reach near-severe
strength, producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and pea-sized
hail, particularly in the mountains.

By tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will depend on the
position of the trough relative to the overall wind pattern. Model
guidance suggest winds will back from east-southeast to east -
northeast during the night. This could result in more erratic shower
and thunderstorm movement and may also lead to the development of
convergence zones across the area. Most of the activity is still
expected to remain over Atlantic waters. However, special attention
should be given this evening as conditions evolve, particularly
across the northeastern portion of the CWA.

Saturday looked to be transitioning day in previous model cycles.
However, the latest model guidance indicates drier air filtering
in later than previously suggested, arriving during the evening
and nighttime hours.As a result, another active afternoon is
expected with activity focused more over interior and southwestern
Puerto RIco. From Saturday through Sunday, drier air will
gradually move in, leading to a reduction in rainfall activity and
improved weather conditions, along with a lower flooding
potential across the islands. However, lingering moisture and
local effects could still support isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the area.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A persistent subtropical jet will remain over the region, supporting
period of favorable conditions as embedded disturbances pass nearby.
At the surface, a strengthening high over the western-central North
Atlantic will promote breeze to windy northeast flow early in the
week, briefly shifting more east to east-northeast before a surface
trough develops to the northeast. Moisture will increase rapidly
after early Monday, with precipitable water values rising to well
above normal and remaining elevated through the period. Despite some
lingering mid-level dryness early on, conditions will support daily
shower and thunderstorm development, along with increasing trade wind
shower activity.

Hazard risks will increase through the period as a wetter and more
unstable pattern becomes established. Flooding impacts will become
more likely from Monday onward, particularly in urban and poorly-
drained areas, and may be exacerbated over saturated soils. Breezy
to windy conditions will persist, and thunderstorms may produce
lightning and locally erratic winds. Confidence is medium in an
active pattern, and uncertainty remains in the timing and intensity
of embedded features that may enhance rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A trough will promote SHRA/TSRA resulting in MVFR/IFR conds at times
due to reduced VIS/CIGs in SHRA/TSRA. Mostly VCSH/VCTS will affect
TIST/TISX, with VCTS/TSRA posbl across interior and W/NW PR, mainly
impacting TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may result in mtn obsc
across interior PR. Winds may become light/vrb overnight with higher
gusts near SHRA/TSRA, then increase after 27/14Z. Sfc winds will be
ESE-SE at 8-15 kt with higher gust near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A surface high pressure will develop over the north central Atlantic
during the next few days, and settle over the Azores late in the
weekend. Meanwhile, a series of weak surface troughs are expected to
linger over the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week,
before another front approaches the region early next week. This
weather pattern will promote mostly light to moderate east to
southeast trades through early tomorrow, before turning more east to
northeast for the rest of the period. Stronger winds are expected
with the approaching front, becoming moderate to locally fresh. Seas
will remain between 3 and 5 feet through the weekend.

Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate by Monday, as a large
swell is forecast to build seas up to 10 feet and spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages for most of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A low to moderate risk of rip currents continues across the beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, expected to persist this
weekend. Although there isn't a high risk, beachgoers must exercise
caution, as life-threatening rip currents are still possible along
beaches under a moderate risk. The beach forecast remains on track
for the first part of the week. A large swell is expected to arrive
and spread across the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
by Monday night into early Tuesday. From the latest model guidance,
seas up to 10 feet and periods between 11 and 12 seconds are likely
to produce large breaking waves along north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These breaking waves could result
in life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions, while
coastal flood conditions cannot be ruled out. Residents and visitors
are encouraged to continue to stay informed and updated with the
latest beach forecast.

Besides rip currents, beachgoers are encouraged to stay weather
alert for the rest of the afternoon and tomorrow Friday due to
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over coastal areas of
northwestern Puerto Rico likely to produce lightning.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
424 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

* A wet and unsettled weather pattern will persist across the
region today, with the most active period expected during the
afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are likely, particularly across interior and western/southwestern
Puerto Rico.

* This may lead to urban and small stream flooding, along with quick
river rises, especially in areas that have received recent
rainfall. The strongest thunderstorms may also produce gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected, with periods of ponding of water on
roads and in low-lying areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives. This will likely result
in Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements, with
hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions possible.
High Surf Advisories cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

A fairly active afternoon and evening was observed across Puerto
Rico on Friday, with several Flood Advisories, Flash Flood Warnings,
and Flood Warnings issued. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding
reports, mostly over portions of Puerto Rico, including reports of
the Rio Culebrinas out of its banks. By early in the night,
thunderstorm activity gradually diminished, transitioning into more
stratified rainfall as the most active convection shifted away from
the region.

The overall pattern has not changed much, with a wet and unsettled
weather pattern expected to persist. For today, winds will gradually
shift from east-southeast to east-northeast to northeast, promoting
a more focused area of convection across interior and southwestern
Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Although slight warming
aloft will result in somewhat reduced instability compared to
previous days, conditions will remain favorable for shower and
thunderstorm development. In addition, the 90-100 kt subtropical jet
will remain better positioned aloft, enhancing upper-level
ventilation and potentially adding intensity to thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. Given recent rainfall, soils remain
saturated, and streamflows are elevated. Therefore, any additional
rainfall will increase the risk of urban and small stream flooding,
as well as rapid river rises. Flooding impacts could develop
quickly, particularly across interior and western/southwestern
Puerto Rico. Landslides and rockfalls will also remain possible in
areas of steep terrain.

By Sunday, conditions are expected to improve as drier air filters
into the region. Model guidance indicates 700-500 mb relative
humidity values decreasing from well above normal levels, previously
exceeding two standard deviations above climatology, to below
normal levels. This will result in a reduction in shower and
thunderstorm activity, making Sunday the driest day of the period.
However, isolated afternoon convection cannot be ruled out,
particularly across western/southwestern Puerto Rico.

On Monday, moisture will increase once again, with precipitable
water values rising to near or above normal levels and mid-level
moisture rebounding to around 40-60 percent. Under a
northeasterly wind flow and continued troughiness aloft, another
round of afternoon convection is expected. Activity is expected to
be less widespread compared to previous days, but localized heavy
rainfall will still be possible. Overall, despite a brief
improvement on Sunday, the combination of saturated soils,
elevated rivers, and additional rounds of convection will continue
to pose a flooding risk through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong low to mid level high pressure will maintain a strong
northeasterly wind flow through much of the workweek. The steering
flow is expected to be at 15 to 25 kts. At the upper level, the jet
stream will maintain speeds of nearly 80 knots. Under the low level
winds, weak disturbances will stream at times across the islands.
This will maintain the probability of precipitation on the medium
and high side. In general, showery weather will persist for most of
the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Then, in the afternoon,
diurnal heating will trigger showers and thunderstorm along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. Because the winds are expected to
be strong, the risk of flooding will be mostly limited. Impacts may
include hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and
ponding of water. In the west, urban and small stream flooding could
still occur, although not widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across most terminals. Sct SHRA ovr
lcl waters and btw terminals may cause brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS. Aft
28/16z, SHRA/TSRA incr across PR, mainly affecting interior/W & S
terminals (TJBQ/TJPS) with TEMPO MVFR/IFR conds. VCTS exp at
TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ, with PROB30 TSRA at TJBQ/TJPS. USVI (TIST/TISX), VFR
prevails with VCSH and brief MVFR psbl. Winds lgt/VRB bcmg E-NE
8-14 kt aft 14z, with higher gusts near TSRA and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026

A mid to upper-level trough will continue to promote unstable
weather across the region today, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A surface inverted trough northeast of the area will
maintain light to moderate east-northeast winds this afternoon,
increasing to moderate to fresh on Sunday and resulting in choppy
seas. A cold front will approach from the western Atlantic early next
week, followed by stronger winds for the rest of the week. In
addition, a long- period northerly swell will build across the local
waters beginning late Monday night, leading to hazardous marine
conditions through at least Thursday. These conditions will be
dangerous for small craft operators.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 417 AM AST Sat Mar 28 2026


Today, a moderate risk of rip currents persists along the north-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
while south-facing beaches and Vieques will experience a low risk.
Beachgoers should continue to exercise caution as a moderate risk
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zones.

Beach conditions are expected to worsen early next week. The arrival
of a long-period northerly swell, combined with strengthening winds
from late Monday night through the rest of the week, will likely
lead to a high risk of rip currents along exposed coastlines.
Hazardous surf and life-threatening rip currents are anticipated,
especially along north-facing beaches.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

* A drier and generally fair weather pattern will prevail today,
with limited shower activity and mostly fair weather conditions
across Puerto Rico.

* Moisture will gradually increase starting Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest, leading to a return of
more frequent showers and afternoon convection, especially
across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly passing showers are
expected through Monday, followed by a noticeable increase in
shower activity by Tuesday as deeper moisture spreads into the
area.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate early
next week as a northerly swell arrives and winds increase. This
will likely result in Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current
Statements, with hazardous breaking waves and dangerous surf
conditions possible.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

A drier and generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail
across the region today as a relatively dry air mass filters in
under an east-northeasterly wind flow. Model guidance indicates
precipitable water values near to slightly below climatological
normals, supporting limited shower development. Any activity that
forms will be brief and primarily affect windward areas during the
morning, followed by isolated convection across interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Overall, rainfall
coverage and intensity will remain minimal. Temperatures will stay
seasonable to slightly cool, especially across higher elevations.

By Monday, conditions begin to transition as moisture gradually
increases across the region ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. This change is accompanied by a tightening pressure
gradient between a building surface high over the western Atlantic,
in the wake of the boundary, and the frontal boundary to the
northwest. As a result, 925 mb winds increase notably, promoting a
stronger east-northeasterly flow across the local area. This
enhanced low-level flow will advect patches of moisture into the
region, with precipitable water values rising to near or above
normal levels, and 700-500 mb relative humidity increasing to nearly
two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Expect
more frequent passing showers across windward areas during the
morning, followed by increased afternoon convection across interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico. While instability remains modest, the
combination of moisture and stronger low-level winds will support
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary draws closer to the region, further
tightening the pressure gradient and maintaining elevated low-level
winds. Moisture content continues to increase, with precipitable
water values exceeding climatological thresholds and deep-layer
humidity becoming more favorable for widespread cloud development.
This will lead to a more active weather pattern, with scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across the
Atlantic waters and spreading into the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. Afternoon convection across interior and
western/southwestern Puerto Rico will become slightly more
widespread, supported by local effects and a lingering troughiness
aloft. The combination of stronger winds and higher moisture content
may result in periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Given
antecedent conditions, there will be an elevated risk of localized
flooding, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained locations, and
along rivers and streams. Nevertheless, faster steering winds will
help limit rainfall accumulations as showers move more quickly
across the region.

In summary, a relatively dry and generally fair weather pattern
today will give way to a progressively more unsettled regime by
early next week, driven by increasing moisture, strengthening low-
level winds associated with a tightening pressure gradient, and the
approach of a frontal boundary.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

High pressure centered well north in the Atlantic and an induced
surface trough northeast of the islands will maintain a strong
northeasterly wind flow through the end of the week. As the surface
trough moves north of the island on Friday and the weekend, the
winds will shift from the southeast. It will be breezy through at
least Thursday, with speeds of 15 to 20 knots. On Wednesday and
Thursday, under the northeasterly wind flow, the surface trough will
push a drier air mass above the 700 mb-layer into the northeastern
Caribbean. As a result, precipitable water values will drop to near
normal values for this time of the year. On these days, the focus of
rain should be in the northeast and the Virgin Islands early in the
day, followed by stronger showers in the afternoon for the interior
and southwest. The atmosphere does not look particularly favorable
for heavy rainfall accumulations, although the mid-levels will be
cool enough for at least for isolated lightning each afternoon.

Moving into the end of the week and the weekend, a new upper level
low will dig from the southeastern United States. For Friday and
Saturday, the latest guidance show a vorticity maximum at the upper
levels, with some low level convergence too. However, some dry
intrusion persist in the mid-levels. Since the winds will shift
from the southeast, diurnal heating is expected to be stronger.
Therefore, there is a medium chance that showers may grow enough to
break through the drier air, and reaching the favorable conditions
aloft. For now, the forecast call for stronger thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours, but moderate rainfall accumulations, focused along
the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected across all TAF sites thru the pd. Sfc
winds generally light/VRB ovrnght, bcmg E-ENE 8-12 kt aft 29/13Z,
with ocnl higher gusts. Limited SHRA activity expected due to
drier airmass, though brief -SHRA psbl ovr windward areas btwn
29/12-16Z. Aftn convection may support iso SHRA ovr interior/west
PR, but impacts to TAF sites expected to remain minimal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

A surface inverted trough located northeast of the local islands
will sustain light to moderate east-northeast winds early today, but
winds will be increasing to moderate to fresh by the afternoon,
resulting in choppy seas. Additionally, winds will pick up after a
cold front moves toward the region from the Western Atlantic by
Monday. Furthermore, another long-period northerly swell will create
hazardous marine conditions, expected to last through the entire
week. These conditions will be dangerous for small craft
operators.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 433 AM AST Sun Mar 29 2026

Today, the moderate risk of rip currents continues along the
northwest, north, and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra.
Also, across the U.S. Islands tonight. This means that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zones, as a result
beachgoers should exercise caution. From Monday night into the rest
of the week, beach conditions are anticipated to become hazardous
due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined with
increasing winds. Life-threatening rip currents will be likely in
the surf zones and dangerous surf conditions along the north-facing
exposed coastlines cannot be ruled out. Residents and visitors are
urged to monitor the forecast and alerts over the coming days.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions are ongoing across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and will persist, creating
hazardous conditions across exposed areas and driving overall
impacts.

* Marine conditions are deteriorating across the local waters due
to increasing winds, with hazardous conditions for small craft
already developing. Conditions will worsen further starting
Monday night as a northerly swell arrives.

* Life-threatening rip current conditions will develop starting
tonight along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands and continue through midweek.

* Localized flooding is possible across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands due to frequent trade wind showers and afternoon
convection, particularly in urban areas, poorly drained
locations, interior and western Puerto Rico, and any areas with
saturated soils.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Overnight, an increase in trade wind showers was observed moving
inland from the Atlantic waters, with some reaching interior
portions of Puerto Rico due to strong steering winds. These
showers produced isolated rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50
inches. Overnight low temperatures dropped into the mid 50s
across higher elevations and mid 60s across lower elevations,
reflecting slightly cooler-than-normal conditions that are
expected to continue over the next few days. Breezy to locally
windy northeasterly winds will persist across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by a strong surface high pressure over
the western Atlantic. This pattern will continue to support
frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours across windward areas. Aloft, a jet stream and
a weak shortwave trough north of the region may help support
slightly deeper moisture and limited instability starting Tuesday.

Moisture will vary from time to time, with periods of drier and
wetter air moving across the region. By Tuesday, a patch of higher
moisture, possibly linked to remnants of a frontal boundary to
the north, will move across the area, allowing for more active
shower development. Afternoon heating will help showers grow over
land, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico,
following a typical pattern of morning showers in windward areas
and afternoon activity inland.

The main hazards will be localized flooding and breezy to windy
conditions. While showers will move quickly, recent rainfall may
have left soils sensitive, increasing the risk of ponding of water
and minor flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams. This
risk will be higher in areas that receive frequent trade wind
showers or repeated afternoon activity, particularly across
interior and west to southwestern Puerto Rico. In addition, breezy
to locally strong winds may result in occasional non-thunderstorm
wind impacts, especially across exposed coastal areas and higher
elevations. Lightning risk will remain limited, although a few
thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Tuesday. Overall, impacts
are expected to be localized rather than widespread.


&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 153 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

An induced surface trough northeast of the region along with a high
pressure system well north of the region will maintain a breezy flow
from the northeast, around 15 knots on Thursday. Passing showers
will continue to move along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico in the morning, followed by afternoon convection along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. As the trough moves just north of
the region, the winds will shift from the southeast by Friday and
the weekend. Aloft, a short wave trough arrives on Friday, which
usually will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development.
However, it looks like that upper level clouds will move from the
southwest as well. If the day stays cloudy, then it will shut down
the diurnal heating mechanism, preventing heavy rain from
developing. Since this is an evolving scenario, the confidence is
low to medium at this time. Similar conditions will prevail on
Saturday, with the influence of the upper level trough and high
clouds moving from the southwest. By Sunday and Monday, there
could 153be breaks in the cloud layer, which should allow for
more warming and thunderstorms in the afternoon for western Puerto
Rico. For these days, the risk of flooding will be elevated, with
urban and small stream flooding likely.

By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to warm up too,
so highs could climb to the low 90s for most coastal areas in Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

Trade wind SHRA will mv acrs most terminals thru 30/13–14Z,
bringing brief MVFR conds, mainly at TJSJ/TIST, while VCSH at
TISX/TJPS. Aft 30/17Z, SHRA/isol TSRA will dvlp over land,
affecting SW PR (TJPS) with brief MVFR/IFR conds. Aft 30/22Z, SHRA
redevelop ovr windward terminals. NE winds 8–12 kt with occnl
gusts at USVI terminals, incr after sunrise to 16–20 kt with
gusts up to 26–30 kt, higher near SHRA/TSRA, causing ocnl turb and
brief ops impacts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A surface trough north of the region will maintain moderate to
locally fresh northeasterly winds across the local waters today,
promoting choppy seas. An approaching frontal boundary from the
western Atlantic will interact with available moisture, leading to
increasing shower activity, particularly from late Monday into
Tuesday. A long-period northerly swell combined with strengthening
winds will result in deteriorating marine conditions beginning late
Monday night and continuing through much of the Spring Break week.
Hazardous seas are expected, with conditions becoming dangerous for
small craft operators.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Mar 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, while a
low risk will persist along south-facing beaches.

Conditions are expected to worsen from this evening through at least
Friday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined
with breezy to windy trade winds. This combination is likely to
create life-threatening rip currents and dangerous high-surf
conditions along the north-facing exposed coastlines.

Beachgoers should exercise caution and remain aware of changing
marine conditions. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local
safety guidance.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

* Hazardous beach conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents and
dangerous surf are expected along north- and east-facing
beaches.

* Passing showers overnight and in the morning, with afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms over western to southwestern
Puerto Rico. Localized flooding is possible; lower risk across
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly in the afternoon,
producing lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist, especially in
coastal and exposed areas, supporting fast-moving showers.

* These conditions may affect outdoor and holiday activities. Plan
accordingly and stay weather-aware.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

Overnight, breezy conditions persisted across the region, with
winds easing slightly from daytime peaks but still ranging around
10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts across the most exposed northern
and eastern areas of Puerto Rico and across the U.S. Virgin
Islands. These winds supported the continued movement of passing
showers inland and, at times, across the entire islands. Some of
these showers produced moderate rainfall, with the highest amounts
observed across northeastern Puerto Rico, including the Sierra de
Luquillo. Additional lighter accumulations were noted across the
interior and southern sections. Temperatures were slightly cooler
than previous nights.

A strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic will
continue to drive breezy conditions and maintain the current trade
wind pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds
will gradually shift from the northeast to the east by Thursday,
and eventually east-southeast by late Thursday night. Moisture
will fluctuate early, with a brief drier period today, then
increase again from midweek onward. By Wednesday into Thursday, a
more humid and less stable pattern is expected as an upper-level
trough moves near the region. This will support periods of
passing showers, along with afternoon development over interior
and western Puerto Rico.

During this ongoing holiday week, periods of showers and breezy
conditions may lead to interruptions in outdoor activities across
the islands. Showers will be more frequent across northeastern
Puerto Rico during the overnight and morning hours, and across the
interior and southwestern areas during the afternoon. While
showers will move quickly, repeated activity may result in
localized flooding in urban areas, roadways, and poor drainage
locations, especially by midweek as moisture increases. A few
thunderstorms are possible today, mainly across interior and
western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will persist, especially across exposed coastal areas
and higher elevations, which may affect outdoor comfort. Residents
and visitors should remain aware of changing weather conditions
while planning outdoor and holiday-related activities.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

From Friday into Saturday, an evolving pattern under the influence
of an induced surface trough and a shortwave trough will enhance a
more unstable weather pattern across the islands. At the surface,
the induced surface trough, in combination with a surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic, will promote a northeasterly
wind flow across the area, rapidly shifting to the east-southeast
early Friday as the surface perturbation moves west of the region.
At the upper levels, a shortwave trough will move across the region,
favoring enhanced instability and thunderstorm development. This
pattern will support a high chance of showers across the area;
however, the forecast will be largely dependent on surface
conditions at the time. According to global model guidance and
relative humidity values, a deep upper-level cloud layer may inhibit
the diurnal heating trigger. If sufficient heating does not develop,
widespread shower activity is not anticipated; however, some well-
developed showers are still expected across the northwestern section
and the San Juan Metropolitan area. On Sunday, global model guidance
from the GFS and ECMWF continues to suggest precipitable water
values up to 1.7 inches, which remains near the 75th percentile for
this time of year, consistent with relative humidity values between
850 and 500 mb.

By Monday onward, the main surface weather pattern will be driven by
a broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, resulting
in a tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing winds. Under
this pattern, global model guidance suggests an increase in low-
level moisture across the Caribbean moving into the local islands.
The GFS indicates precipitable water values up to 1.9 inches, which
remains around the 75th percentile through the rest of the period.
Under this setup, reduced upper-level dynamics will limit upper-
level cloudiness, allowing the diurnal heating process to become
more effective. Under this scenario, afternoon convection is likely
to become more widespread and better organized, particularly across
western and interior Puerto Rico, where local effects will enhance
shower and thunderstorm development. This increase in convective
activity, combined with warm and moist conditions, will elevate the
risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in areas that
experience repeated rainfall. In addition, temperatures are expected
to trend above normal, with coastal highs reaching the low 90s,
further supporting instability and convective potential each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

SHRA will affect most terminals exposed to the north and across
the islands with MVFR conds (cigs 2–3 kft, vsby 3–5 SM) and brief
IFR (cigs <2 kft, vsby ≤3 SM) possible. TJPS less impacted early
but SHRA/VCTS expected aft 31/17Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conds.
SHRA will redevelop ovr windward terminals aft 31/22Z. NE winds
10–15 kt overnight, incr to 15–20 kt with gusts 25–30 kt aft
sunrise, then decreasing slightly overnight but remaining gusty,
esp near SHRA/TSRA. Brief operational impacts likely due to
reduced cigs/vsby and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

A broad and strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic
will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region,
supporting moderate to locally strong northeasterly winds. A long-
period northerly swell will spread across the regional waters
today, with additional pulses expected over the next few days. The
combination of these winds and building swell will result in
hazardous marine conditions, with choppy to rough seas across the
local waters and Small Craft Advisories in effect. Periods of
frequent showers, and possibly isolated thunderstorms, will also
move across the waters, locally reducing visibility and producing
brief higher winds and rougher seas. Overall, hazardous marine
conditions are expected to persist through much of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 AM AST Tue Mar 31 2026

A high risk of rip currents is in effect this morning along all
north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra,
as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. This risk will expand
to Vieques and other exposed areas tonight as the swell continues
to spread across the region. A low to moderate risk will persist
along the remaining beaches, where rip currents are still
possible.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for these same beaches, with
conditions expected to expand to Culebra and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands tonight. Dangerous surf will create life-
threatening rip currents and hazardous shoreline conditions,
including strong breaking waves and wave run-up that can sweep
people off rocks or the shoreline.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected to persist through most,
if not all, of the week and into the weekend.

Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water and use caution
near the shoreline at affected beaches, as conditions can be
dangerous even for those not entering the water.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

* Dangerous rip currents continue along north- and east-facing
beaches. Stay out of the water. Rough surf persists through this
afternoon.

* Hazardous seas will continue for small craft through at least
Friday night and likely into the weekend.

* Showers move across windward areas overnight and in the
morning, then focus over southwestern Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. Brief heavy rain may cause localized flooding, with
lightning and gusty winds possible.

* Winds remain strong, around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts,
especially near showers and in exposed areas.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

A strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic will
maintain breezy trade winds across the region through the rest of
the workweek. Sustained winds will generally range between 15 and
20 mph, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph, and locally higher gusts
possible near showers and across exposed areas. Moisture will
remain near seasonal levels today, supporting passing showers
across windward areas through the morning hours, followed by the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
far southwestern sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

A wetter pattern will gradually develop from late tonight onward
as a band of above-normal moisture moves in from the northeast and
spreads across the local islands. Moisture will become deeper and
more established by Thursday night into Friday, resulting in more
frequent passing showers across eastern and northern Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by enhanced afternoon
convection over portions of western Puerto Rico. The lack of a
well-defined trade wind cap, combined with nearby upper-level
troughiness, will favor more efficient shower development,
although thunderstorm activity should remain isolated.

The highest rainfall totals each day will remain localized and
primarily driven by diurnal heating, terrain effects, and low-
level convergence. As winds gradually veer from the northeast to
the east and eventually east-southeast, the area of greatest
activity is expected to shift from the far southwestern portions
of Puerto Rico today toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by Friday.

The main concern through the short-term period will be the
increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding, especially in urban areas, roads, and poor drainage
locations from late Thursday through Friday, when the deepest
moisture is expected. While showers will generally move quickly,
repeated activity over the same areas may lead to rainfall
accumulations of around 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible, particularly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
by late in the week. The strongest winds are expected late
Thursday into Friday, especially across exposed coastal areas,
higher elevations, and surrounding waters.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

For the beginning of the long-term period, a weather pattern
influenced by an induced surface trough and an upper-level shortwave
trough is expected. This combination will lead to increasingly
unstable conditions across the islands. As the disturbance moves
west of the region, its interaction with a high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic will promote an east-southeasterly wind flow.

The upper-level trough will enhance instability and support
thunderstorm development, resulting in a high probability of
showers. However, a deep upper-level cloud layer may limit daytime
heating, potentially reducing widespread activity. Even so,
localized, well-developed showers are expected, especially across
northwestern areas and the San Juan metro region. By Sunday,
precipitable water values are forecast to reach around 1.7 inches,
near the 75th percentile for this time of year. A limited to
elevated flood risk will persist each afternoon. As a result,
similar conditions are expected on Sunday, as the upper-level trough
continues to influence the region along with periods of enhanced
cloud cover. During this time, a limited to elevated flood risk will
persist each afternoon.

From Monday through Wednesday, the surface pattern will become
dominated by a broad high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic,
resulting in southeasterly winds. During this period, increasing low-
level moisture from the Caribbean will spread across the islands,
with precipitable water values rising to around 1.9 inches and
remaining near the 75th percentile, based on climatological data for
this time of the year. With weaker upper-level dynamics, cloud cover
aloft will be less extensive, allowing for more effective daytime
heating. As a result, afternoon convection is expected to become
more widespread and better organized, particularly across western
and interior Puerto Rico, where local effects will enhance shower
and thunderstorm development. This pattern, combined with warm and
humid conditions, will increase the risk of urban and small stream

flooding.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

SHRA will affect mainly windward terminals overnight into 01/14Z
with periods of MVFR (cigs 2–3 kft, vsby 3–5 SM). TJPS less
impacted early, but SHRA possible aft 01/17Z with brief MVFR
conditions. SHRA redevelop ovr windward terminals aft 01/22Z. NE
winds 10–15 kt overnight, incr to 15–20 kt with gusts 25–30 kt aft
sunrise, remaining breezy and gusty.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the week under a
strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds and a persistent northerly swell will maintain
choppy to rough seas across regional waters, with conditions
continuing even as winds shift easterly. Frequent trade wind
showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages,
with isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the Caribbean
waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for northern and
exposed waters through at least Saturday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Apr 1 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will persist across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through the rest of the workweek and
possibly into the weekend. A long-period northerly swell will
continue to impact exposed coastlines, resulting in a high risk of
rip currents, dangerous surf, beach erosion, and large breaking
waves. The most hazardous conditions are expected along north-
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and
Vieques, as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon, with a high
risk of rip currents continuing beyond that period through at
least Friday night.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to stay out of the water and
exercise caution near the shoreline, as breaking waves and wave
run-up can sweep people off rocks and beaches—even those not
entering the water are at risk. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk
of rip currents will persist; however, hazardous conditions can
still occur. Swim only near lifeguards and follow local safety
guidance.