2026 Severe Weather in U.S

[cycloneye]

The number of tornadoes so far as of March 17th is 235 that is above the mean average.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

What was the cause of the bust?

Too much crapvection ahead of the front that muddled up the warm sector. Here in Maryland we had just two TOR (tornado warnings) occur during the early afternoon, and that was it. No real (semi)discrete cells existed to take advantage of the seemingly prime environment. The main QLCS associated with the front is now blowing through my area, so we're officially done now.

I live in Dixie Alley now so I am happy it was a bust lol

[cycloneye]

[TomballEd]

With the temperature anomalies, dewpoints should be above season norms. This might explain tornadoes in the Ohio Valley/Michigan weeks before the more usual start of severe season. Locally in SETX, many potential severe episodes don't happen because higher dewpoint air travelling over the usually cold shelf waters produce low clouds and fog that are slow to burn off such that the cap never breaks.

There may be some morning low clouds and fog but I suspect less than usual. Op GFS and Euro are quite different in timing and strength of a system passing Easter/first few days after. Both suggest best forcing well N of SETX so more morning/early afternoon insolation probably doesn't make a difference (or does it, model does show storms Easter in SETX) but 0Z Euro just screams Easter outbreak in the Southern Plains. Higher than normal dewpoints would just be added fuel.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2038247301840589000

[ElectricStorm]

Friday April 3 is a day to watch for some plains dryline action. A ways out of course, and no highlighted areas on SPC yet, but there seems to be a little more model agreement so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% area added in the next couple days.

Still would like to see a better setup on the GFS but the Euro has looked good for a while and I trust the Euro in general more than the GFS.

Could have some lower end severe days before it as well. Nice to break up this quiet period we've had last couple weeks.