2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Today the main newspaper in Puerto Rico has a extensive report about the incomming El Niño. The main enfasis is the less storms on hurricane season, the dry periods in Caribbean and the warm sst's in MDR or not too warm. Ernesto Morales from the NWS San Juan said that we have to watch those temperatures in the MDR for any possible formation east of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Big WWB comming from GFS / ECMWF and their ensembles.

GFS



GEFS



ECMWF



EPS

[dexterlabio]

I believe SOI is more of "indicative" than "predictive." But if we are really going to have a basin-wide strong El Niño by JJA, we should at least start seeing very negative daily SOI values around April or May.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Interesting that both the GEFS and EPS extended stall the MJO out in Phase 8 long term.

[Kingarabian]

Could trigger a CPAC->120W WWB in April with that setup
Would guarantee a JAS El Nino if that occurs.

[Long John]

Could trigger a CPAC->120W WWB in April with that setup
Would guarantee a JAS El Nino if that occurs.

or this is the beginning of another El Nino bust ?

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.5ºC
Niño 3= 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2= 1.2ºC

[Kingarabian]

Could trigger a CPAC->120W WWB in April with that setup
Would guarantee a JAS El Nino if that occurs.

or this is the beginning of another El Nino bust ?

El Nino is very likely this year. The timing and strength is still unknown.

Good arguments for simple warm neutral that becomes a weak El Nino in the fall or an El Nino in place for JAS that becomes moderate in the fall.

IMO a Super El Nino that the models are currently suggesting is not likely this year.

[cycloneye]

Could trigger a CPAC->120W WWB in April with that setup
Would guarantee a JAS El Nino if that occurs.

or this is the beginning of another El Nino bust ?

El Nino is very likely this year. The timing and strength is still unknown.

Good arguments for simple warm neutral that becomes a weak El Nino in the fall or an El Nino in place for JAS that becomes moderate in the fall.

IMO a Super El Nino that the models are currently suggesting is not likely this year.

If what you are describing happens, then the NATL basin will be more interesting to track and the 2026 Storm2k numbers poll may have the members posting higher numbers than anticipated, but is still very early and the Spring Barrier is here.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Since we're talking about MJO and El Nino bust, here are the MJO charts during March from the past super el nino events. Both 1997 and 2015 had very strong MJO activity that made it's way into the Pacific during March, which obviously triggered major WWBs that helped speed up El Nino development and get it to super strength. Compare that to what this year's MJO looks like so far and what is expected for the rest of the month:





Yea... definitely much more underwhelming than what we saw in the past 2 super nino events. Both of them had a VERY strong MJO pulse that moved into Phase 7 by the time we got to mid-month, while this year, the MJO moving through barely amplified, and stalling into Phase 8 and 1 which is the Atlantic. I rather wait a few more weeks to see how things evolve because all of this could change, but I feel like the recent hype about us getting a super nino and maybe even a strong nino is being overdone. The latest weekly Nino 3.4 index is still at -0.5 even though daily plots like CRW indicate we are already heading into warm neutral. Now I don't think we will have an El Nino bust this year in terms of us not getting a El Nino at all like 2014, but I am starting to wonder whether or not this event is being overhyped.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/201501.phase.90days.gif?1773685457872
https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/199701.phase.90days.gif?1773685457872

Since we're talking about MJO and El Nino bust, here are the MJO charts during March from the past super el nino events. Both 1997 and 2015 had very strong MJO activity that made it's way into the Pacific during March, which obviously triggered major WWBs that helped speed up El Nino development and get it to super strength. Compare that to what this year's MJO looks like so far and what is expected for the rest of the month:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif?1773685457872
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/mjo/img/EMON.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/mjo/img/GMON.png

Yea... definitely much more underwhelming than what we saw in the past 2 super nino events. Both of them had a VERY strong MJO pulse that moved into Phase 7 by the time we got to mid-month, while this year, the MJO moving through barely amplified, and stalling into Phase 8 and 1 which is the Atlantic. I rather wait a few more weeks to see how things evolve because all of this could change, but I feel like the recent hype about us getting a super nino and maybe even a strong nino is being overdone. The latest weekly Nino 3.4 index is still at -0.5 even though daily plots like CRW indicate we are already heading into warm neutral. Now I don't think we will have an El Nino bust this year in terms of us not getting a El Nino at all like 2014, but I am starting to wonder whether or not this event is being overhyped.

Curious if you think something like the CanSIPS is more likely with its moderate CP-based look? I'm not sure how believable it is since it's alone in this depiction, although for all we know it could end up scoring a coup. We're still not past the spring predictability barrier so I guess an end result like this is still on the table.

[mixedDanilo.E]

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/201501.phase.90days.gif?1773685457872
https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/199701.phase.90days.gif?1773685457872

Since we're talking about MJO and El Nino bust, here are the MJO charts during March from the past super el nino events. Both 1997 and 2015 had very strong MJO activity that made it's way into the Pacific during March, which obviously triggered major WWBs that helped speed up El Nino development and get it to super strength. Compare that to what this year's MJO looks like so far and what is expected for the rest of the month:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif?1773685457872
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/mjo/img/EMON.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/mjo/img/GMON.png

Yea... definitely much more underwhelming than what we saw in the past 2 super nino events. Both of them had a VERY strong MJO pulse that moved into Phase 7 by the time we got to mid-month, while this year, the MJO moving through barely amplified, and stalling into Phase 8 and 1 which is the Atlantic. I rather wait a few more weeks to see how things evolve because all of this could change, but I feel like the recent hype about us getting a super nino and maybe even a strong nino is being overdone. The latest weekly Nino 3.4 index is still at -0.5 even though daily plots like CRW indicate we are already heading into warm neutral. Now I don't think we will have an El Nino bust this year in terms of us not getting a El Nino at all like 2014, but I am starting to wonder whether or not this event is being overhyped.

Curious if you think something like the CanSIPS is more likely with its moderate CP-based look? I'm not sure how believable it is since it's alone in this depiction, although for all we know it could end up scoring a coup. We're still not past the spring predictability barrier so I guess an end result like this is still on the table.
https://i.imgur.com/zHrv3et.png

Perhaps... right now i'm in wait and see mode until May honestly. But maybe the CanSIPS is onto something in showing a weaker and more modoki solution that the rest of the models. But Climate models have been all over the place especially last year, which is why I am in wait and see mode right now.

[cycloneye]

The hovmollers have a different picture than RMM.