2026 ENSO Updates

[Kingarabian]

That GFS hovmoller is likely misleading. GEFS has a stronger WWB than the GFS chart shown, though it has backed off significantly on the strength of the WWB and on the -VP near the dateline since 2 days ago.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TDy8WRgG/gefs-0-N-hov-uanom-2026031012.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/rRTsqtVs/gefs-0-N-hov-uanom-2026030812.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/j9sZTTcC/gefs-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2026030812.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/chvz7SDQ/gefs-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2026031012.png [/url]

Perhaps a difference in climo?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Something to keep in mind wrt the Euro SEAS5 forecast:

[Kingarabian]

Ventrices hovmoller for the GFS showing a late March early April WWB.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Something to keep in mind wrt the Euro SEAS5 forecast:
https://i.imgur.com/2tLMLge.png

This is exactly what I was thinking about. When you factor in the RONI methodology to what the Euro is forecasting, at most it gets to like moderate/borderline strong Nino.

[cycloneye]

+ENSO in the making.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2031873357486944303

[cycloneye]

El Niño watch has been issued

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/2032079168272290150

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2032090736103936033

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2032090736103936033

Thinking this one might have a chance to be stronger than 2023-24 due to a favorable PMM and less competition from the tropical Atlantic and Africa (even if the Euro is too bullish)

[cycloneye]

Maybe 2009 is a good analog for the 2026 NATL season? From Wiki.

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average season, primarily due to the development of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, which increased vertical wind shear and suppressed storm formation. It was the quietest season since 1997, featuring the lowest number of tropical cyclones since that yea

Season Statistics
Total Named Storms: 9
Hurricanes: 3 (Bill, Fred, Ida)
Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 2 (Bill, Fred)
Total Fatalities: 6 direct deaths in the U.S. (9 total)
Total Damage: Approximately $58 million to $77 million (2009 USD)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 52.6, well below the long-term median


Key Storms & Landfalls

Hurricane Bill: The strongest storm of the season, reaching Category 4 intensity with winds of 135 mph. It affected the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and made landfall in Newfoundland, Canada.
Hurricane Fred: A rare major hurricane that formed in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands.
Hurricane Ida: Formed in November and made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane before hitting Alabama as a tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Claudette: The only tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States (Florida Panhandle.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Am I missing something. I read latest cpc and graphs and shows neutral through most 2026.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I just went back and looked at the CPC email that was sent to me today. I opened it up pdf and realized they sent Aug 2025 data. Dont know who updates that site but had me confused

[dexterlabio]

Wasn't 2023 also forecast to be a Super El Niño as well, or at least behind only 1997-1998 and 2015-2016? Didn't really follow what happened that year since many factors were mentioned that supposedly offset its effect on the global climate, but I thought it officially reached the strong threshold based on ONI. But again, many factors were cited that 2023 didn't really feel a strong El Niño year. RONI and PDO were some of these factors.

[Ntxw]

Wasn't 2023 also forecast to be a Super El Niño as well, or at least behind only 1997-1998 and 2015-2016? Didn't really follow what happened that year since many factors were mentioned that supposedly offset its effect on the global climate, but I thought it officially reached the strong threshold based on ONI. But again, many factors were cited that 2023 didn't really feel a strong El Niño year. RONI and PDO were some of these factors.

RONI will be lower more than likely due to global ocean warming unevenly (more over the eastern IO-Maritime continent and WPAC etc than CPAC-EPAC) and these differences have effects on the walker circulation, thus atmospheric response. That said, 2023 was sort of the El Nino that 'had to be' rather than regime shift because the cold enso state was very strong and durable i.e bathtub water sloshing, rubber-band effect? It didn't feature the full characterizations of a traditional El Nino with competing influences from other parts of the world. So far, at least, the initial indicators lead this potential event into more of a regime change El Nino we would typically expect. Spring barrier though, I'd give it another 2 months at least.

[cycloneye]

If you believe CFSv2, El Niño will be a one year thing. After reaching the peak, it starts to go down in November. As we know, is the spring barrier period so let's not take this to the bank.

[cycloneye]

The image tells the whole story about ENSO.

[chaser1]

If you believe CFSv2, El Niño will be a one year thing. After reaching the peak, it starts to go down in November. As we know, is the spring barrier period so let's not take this to the bank.

https://i.imgur.com/qviq4gp.png

Sorry, too late LMAO. I just went ahead and made a "deposit". Doesn't mean there won't be another Andrew...... Odds would suggest that would occur elsewhere however. N.E. GOM and the N.C. Outer Banks would be where I'd be looking. Otherwise, Bermuda might again be under the gun. Might be a weird year with 2-4 majors, yet an otherwise low impact - low quantity - low hurricane to T.S. ratio. Thats what I'm beginning to sniff out thus far.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

If you believe CFSv2, El Niño will be a one year thing. After reaching the peak, it starts to go down in November. As we know, is the spring barrier period so let's not take this to the bank.

https://i.imgur.com/qviq4gp.png

I'd bet on that being the case. It's more difficult to get a multi-year Niño event than it is La Niña, let alone one of this magnitude. Just recently we've already had a triple-dip Niña to open up the decade and are coming off a weaker double-dip event (by RONI standards anyway). But it is pre-SPB and this impending Niño is just starting to emerge, so we'll get to that when the time comes...

[OURAGAN]

The SOI does not cooperate.



[img]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/img]

[cycloneye]

The SOI does not cooperate.

https://i.imgur.com/yVqUCnt.jpeg

[url]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/url]

The SOI aside from being noisy is only looking for one flavor of ENSO. If you don't already have a basin-wide mode in place, it't not going to respond.
An East Pacific El Niño often times won't trip the SOI but doesn't mean El Niño isn't developing or not going to happen. Not totally unheard of for even a strong El Niño to have little SOI response until the summer. Even "super Nino" like 1982 had very little SOI help until May or June.