weeniepatrol wrote:gib wrote:Pardon the interruption, but what exactly is "weenie cope"? Zonacane's post seemed innocuous enough, so the response feels unexpected and suggests I'm ignorant of something. Anyone want to educate an increasingly aging fool? haha
The almost reflexive response of “it only takes one” to the notion of data supporting a below average season is cope because of the contrast relative to if we were expecting an above average season (with an anticipation to track). It attempts to diminish the impact to hobbyists of a quiet season, but falls flat because most everyone here already understands the concept intuitively. Everyone understands that just one system can make or break a whole season. It doesn’t change what the data actually currently supports: a quieter season than most recent years. Whether one significant system makes the season memorable or not, it still means fewer tracking opportunities than otherwise, that is unless you’re a pacific fan.
In other words, I think it’s a great point to mention when interacting with the general public, whom doesn’t understand these things the way we do. But when your audience is more so dedicated hobbyists on a forum, it’s restating what we already know, and doesn’t change the fundamental point.
Well said. Wx-invested folks all know the "it only takes one" motto inside and out; a layperson, however, may (for understandable reasons) think that below-average = impactless. But of course, not all below-average seasons are the same. Sure, some indeed do nothing and are otherwise boring to track. But then there are the select few, like 1965, 1977, 1983, or 1992 that brings one memorable, powerful storm and nothing else otherwise. Or, maybe it's two memorable storms. Like 1979 or 2002.
I understand that many of us are eager to track storms (not necessarily impacts, of course) and may, in certain ways, be discouraged by a below-average outlook. Or at least, something less than above-average. However, I personally think that this arguably will make tracking the 2026 season much more interesting. When and where in the basin will favorable pockets arise during the season? Will any storms be able to take advantage of such? Which areas will be at-risk? Surely we'll see activity at some point in the season.
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
