2026 Severe Weather in U.S

[cycloneye]

There will be surveys in Alabama to see if there were tornados involved that may haved caused some damage.

 https://x.com/spann/status/2027214495571992651

[cycloneye]

Watch for severe weather after March 4th.

[Iceresistance]

Watch for severe weather after March 4th.

https://i.imgur.com/BlLgKBZ.jpeg

We got a highlighted area of severe weather for March 4th in Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bvYBz.png

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/spann/status/2027736205241041316

[cycloneye]

As of Febuary 27th, the countdown of tornadoes in 2026 is at 75. See at the first post of thread,the graphic that updates every day.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2027938399101833500

[cycloneye]

Tornado shelters.

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/2028523844634382576

[cycloneye]

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
WESTERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from
mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas
to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the
central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more
amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection
will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front
that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in
west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West.

...Central TX to western AR...
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further
boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front
should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by
mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK.
Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough
and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support
increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer
shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the
compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough.
Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear
values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest
relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that
evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At
least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the
mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures
diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and
modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe
threat.

[cycloneye]

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern
Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward
across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the
surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across
north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface
temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support
convective initiation along the front during the mid to late
afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the
front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early
evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
organize along and ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith,
Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear
up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8
C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail,
especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be
discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should
organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage
potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should
persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a
low-level jet strengthens.

[cycloneye]

For day 3.

[cycloneye]

[WaveBreaking]

First Day 1 Outlook with the new graphics.

[ElectricStorm]

20z update introduced the first ever hatched marginal risk

5% hatch area added for parts of KS and northern OK

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mikebettes/status/2029375090966794571

[cycloneye]

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a
north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.

[cycloneye]

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night.

...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]