Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

From Reed Timmer

https://i.postimg.cc/k5VpGsDR/640878327-1531270551688964-1619315185491519589-n.jpg

Yup! He sees it also. Cold pushes going up against a warm sector with that airmass clash in between. Active period potential ahead as ensembles show into March (hint and not just for N TX either ).

Would rather not have the severe weather with it but man we need the rain anyway we can get it.

[wxman22]

Good job to the Euro AI for sniffing the upcoming pattern out early. I also noticed that the models have several of the shortwaves coming in negatively tilted next week.That can make a big difference. We’ve been getting so many positively tilted troughs over the last several years due to La Niña. I suspect we we’ll see more negatively tilted troughs as we transition to El Niño.

A battleground setup.

[Stratton23]

No!!!! It can rain any other day, not during spring break

[txtwister78]

Good job to the Euro AI for sniffing the upcoming pattern out early. I also noticed that the models have several of the shortwaves coming in negatively tilted next week.That can make a big difference. We’ve been getting so many positively tilted troughs over the last several years due to La Niña. I suspect we we’ll see more negatively tilted troughs as we transition to El Niño.

A battleground setup.

https://i.postimg.cc/0yLgkBPs/IMG-0670.png

Great point here. Trough orientation matters a great deal not only with the amount of moisture you have available to work with but also with the potential severe weather risk associated and so absolutely a critical component to the type of airmass/dynamics in place.

[TomballEd]

No!!!! It can rain any other day, not during spring break

When I was a student in Austin it seemed like Spring Break started each year as cool and cloudy. Bad time for the SPI crowd, the sea water temps are about as low as they'll be all year.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd yeah i was down in galveston last weekend, those sea temps are definitely still pretty cold lol, though its funny even when the sea surface temperatures eventually get into the mid 80’s in summer, the water still feels cold even those the actual temperature is warm

[Iceresistance]

I've already started posting in the Texas Spring thread since the Meteorological spring starts in a week

[Stratton23]

I think winter may have several more punches through early april before all is set and done for good, likely going to be seeing a near if not complete zonal wind reversal at all levels of the stratosphere which should lead to a SSWE or split PV in the next 7 days, while we are likely past any severe cold, this strat warm is likely going to result in some chilly weather ( at least according to march standards ) from mid march to early april across a good chunk of the US, ensembles are starting to elude to this with high latitude blocking returning, could be a chilly and pretty wet period ahead

[wxman22]

[mmmmsnouts]

I think winter may have several more punches through early april before all is set and done for good, likely going to be seeing a near if not complete zonal wind reversal at all levels of the stratosphere which should lead to a SSWE or split PV in the next 7 days, while we are likely past any severe cold, this strat warm is likely going to result in some chilly weather ( at least according to march standards ) from mid march to early april across a good chunk of the US, ensembles are starting to elude to this with high latitude blocking returning, could be a chilly and pretty wet period ahead

These proclamations are reminding me of the old joke about economists correctly predicting 14 of the last 3 recessions.

[Stratton23]

Im not proclaiming anything lol, just giving my opinion on what i think is going to play out after looking at the zonal wind maps, but it does seem very likely that at least a split PV is going to occur within the next week, whether or not that has any impacts down here remains to be seen in march, wouldn’t surprise me at all to say a late season freeze or two

[Ptarmigan]

No!!!! It can rain any other day, not during spring break

I understand. We need rain for sure.

[rwfromkansas]

Very dense fog, yet NWS asleep this morning I guess for DFW. Thicker than many days they issued advisories.

[Ntxw]

+7-8F for February. +5 in December and neutral Jan which was saved by the second half, otherwise this winter would have been in the running for warmest if not top 3. You really can't win statiscally calling for a below normal winter.

I love cold just as much as the next person but it's becoming increasingly difficult to make seasonal calls for it.

[Stratton23]

And that stat is why i plan on moving to Alaska sometime in the future, im over these warm winters down here, its becoming a massive joke

[snownado]

Despite the roller coaster January with the arctic air outbreak & winter storm, this winter is still on track for a top 5 warmest (if not top 3) for DFW.

Just as well, this February will be the 2nd warmest on record (only behind 2017).

[snownado]

+7-8F for February. +5 in December and neutral Jan which was saved by the second half, otherwise this winter would have been in the running for warmest if not top 3. You really can't win statiscally calling for a below normal winter.

I love cold just as much as the next person but it's becoming increasingly difficult to make seasonal calls for it.

I don't think it's too far fetched to say these kinds of winters are becoming the new norm.

Warm/dry overall, but with increasingly more extreme arctic air outbreaks for several-day periods

[Tejas89]

No doubt our winters aren’t what they used to be and seem to be accelerating to extreme warmth over even “normal” days. We just don’t get the frequency of cool pacific fronts or true arctic air that we used to.

La Niña, El Niño, La nada… it doesn’t seem to matter.

Long dry periods punctuated by deluges is also a signature of the overall trends.

[txtwister78]

+7-8F for February. +5 in December and neutral Jan which was saved by the second half, otherwise this winter would have been in the running for warmest if not top 3. You really can't win statiscally calling for a below normal winter.

I love cold just as much as the next person but it's becoming increasingly difficult to make seasonal calls for it.

I don't think it's too far fetched to say these kidns of winters are becoming the new norm.

Warm/dry overall, but with increasingly more extreme arctic air outbreaks for several-day periods

We've had I believe only one El Nino in the past 5 years and so granted while all are not the same, the general pattern throughout those winters is dry and warmer overall as La Nina's tend to be across Texas mixed in with a few cold outbreaks (some severe).

All that to say I don't think it's necessarily the new norm despite the majority of our winters during the last 5 years having been under La Nina cycles.

[South Texas Storms]

+7-8F for February. +5 in December and neutral Jan which was saved by the second half, otherwise this winter would have been in the running for warmest if not top 3. You really can't win statiscally calling for a below normal winter.

I love cold just as much as the next person but it's becoming increasingly difficult to make seasonal calls for it.

I don't think it's too far fetched to say these kidns of winters are becoming the new norm.

Warm/dry overall, but with increasingly more extreme arctic air outbreaks for several-day periods

We've had I believe only one El Nino in the past 5 years and so granted while all are not the same, the general pattern throughout those winters is dry and warmer overall as La Nina's tend to be across Texas mixed in with a few cold outbreaks (some severe).

All that to say I don't think it's necessarily the new norm despite the majority of our winters during the last 5 years having been under La Nina cycles.

Agreed. I'm not ready to say the past few winters are our new pattern for future winters since we've been locked mostly in a La Nina pattern lately. Let's see how our winters look when El Nino returns...likely later this year and continuing through next winter.