2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2024144377422233627

[Dean_175]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

Well, in February, it is essentially always too soon to declare that a strong El Nino is most likely going to develop. In fact, there has never been a year where the NWS announced during the first quarter that a strong El Nino was likely. The ocean is favorable for development of El Nino and it is at the right time in the ENSO cycle for that to occur, but the amplitude is highly dependent on the MJO in spring-early summer. Right now, there is no +ENSO signal already in place, so the Bjerknes ocean/atmospheric feedback mechanism has not even begun. More about the amplitude will be known when the warm SSTAs actually materialize and you see how the atmosphere is responding. It is hard to predict El Nino's development through spring due to the lack of a mature/fully coupled signal and lots of noise (significant MJO variability brought about in part by seasonal maximum in mean total SST). Speculating on the amplitude now is like already calling a baseball game after watching only the first few pitches and saying "the last time our home team played this well, we won significantly!".

[Yellow Evan]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

Probably opens the door for a 2014 type situation where a stronger El Niño is potentially delayed onto the next year but there’s still weaker event also accompanied by a +PMM.

I guess a fail mode like that is still on the table but the subsurface warmth is just so expansive at the moment, it really won't take much of a WWB to get things going.
https://i.ibb.co/k2sPqCLX/armor-subsfc-anom-enso.png

It felt that way in real time in 2014 through April too only for trades to never really establish itself past the dateline until that fall and that winter much like this had a very different NPAC pattern than the years prior, translating to -NPO and +PMM. This year has more South Pacific support than 2014 so far, however. If we get a strong MJO passage over the Pacific next month and extended range guidance shows an El Niño standing wave, it makes a lot less sense as an analog.

[Yellow Evan]

If the expected MJO in march doesn't cooperate, then the strong el niño status may not be in the cards? I guess time will tell.

Well, in February, it is essentially always too soon to declare that a strong El Nino is most likely going to develop. In fact, there has never been a year where the NWS announced during the first quarter that a strong El Nino was likely. The ocean is favorable for development of El Nino and it is at the right time in the ENSO cycle for that to occur, but the amplitude is highly dependent on the MJO in spring-early summer. Right now, there is no +ENSO signal already in place, so the Bjerknes ocean/atmospheric feedback mechanism has not even begun. More about the amplitude will be known when the warm SSTAs actually materialize and you see how the atmosphere is responding. It is hard to predict El Nino's development through spring due to the lack of a mature/fully coupled signal and lots of noise (significant MJO variability brought about in part by seasonal maximum in mean total SST). Speculating on the amplitude now is like already calling a baseball game after watching only the first few pitches and saying "the last time our home team played this well, we won significantly!".

Eh we’re late enough in the game that I think we have a good idea - we’re near the time of year where Bjerknes feedbacks are the weakest because the the zonal temperature gradient is the smallest. Most years that were coming off a -ENSO like this one that featured with similar trade patterns (1982, 1997, 2002, and 2014 all featured WWB activity near 150E in DJF like this year) similar sub-surface (1997, 2002, 2009, 2014 are all roughly the same magnitude to right now), and similar Pacific sea surface temperature configurations including a defined +PMM and low amplitude PDO (1957, 1963, 1968, 1982, 2006 and 2014). Most of the aforementioned years evolved into moderate or stronger events so it’s reasonable to believe 2026 is more likely than not to behave the same way. As for the CPC probabilities, they’ve (or the statistical output they use) had historically been very conservative with predicting high amplitude ENSO events in either direction - them not saying a strong El Niño was likely in 2015 after the record breaking MJO pulse is an example of such. It’s obviously not certain but this is also the most obvious strong El Niño signal since 2015, and probably only exceeded by 2015 in my ~20 years following ENSO.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2024637613492113443

[cycloneye]

Important news from Eric Webb regarding the atmosphere coupling and the comparisons on the pace to 1997 and 2023.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2024809848534085857



@webberweather
The coastal El Niño event is already coupling to the atmosphere, in a suppressed MJO event at that.

Doesn’t take much to push the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the edge and kickstart Bjkernes Feedback in spring when the mean SSTs are higher.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2024818279156498943



@webberweather
This year’s El Niño event is generally keeping pace with 1997 & 2023 so far.


.

[cycloneye]

Niño 1+2 area is cooking. Up to +1.3C

[cycloneye]

Have some breaking news. Officially Niño 1+2 is up to +1.0C and Niño 3.4 is up to -0.5C at the CPC weekly update of 2/23/26.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

MJO will return in early to mid March to the west Pacific, with elements of subsurface nino building we will have to see how much more the next push will effect the thermocline. On the other hand, the atmosphere hasn't yet played ball.

[cycloneye]

MJO will return in early to mid March to the west Pacific, with elements of subsurface nino building we will have to see how much more the next push will effect the thermocline. On the other hand, the atmosphere hasn't yet played ball.

The SOI, a measure of the ENSO atmospheric state, still lags in positive territory.

[cycloneye]

MJO pulse to phase 7 in March. Let's see how it evolves if it does go to that phase.

 https://x.com/wxmann/status/2026092039767474271

[cycloneye]

El Niño delayed?

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026303964220625323



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026319951825408361

[DorkyMcDorkface]

El Niño delayed?

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026303964220625323



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026319951825408361

Could be a case of "delayed, not denied" if it takes a little longer to get going and the atmosphere lags behind a bit. Things are still overwhelmingly in favor of El Niño development at the moment, it would be surprising to see it truly sputter.

[Ntxw]

El Niño delayed?

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026303964220625323



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2026319951825408361

Could be a case of "delayed, not denied" if it takes a little longer to get going and the atmosphere lags behind a bit. Things are still overwhelmingly in favor of El Niño development at the moment, it would be surprising to see it truly sputter.

The RONI and other factors are a result of rapid ocean warming across the globe especially the higher the latitude you go. Any El Nino this day and age will face this hurdle as we've discussed extensively about how the long term averages are not keeping pace. It will be interesting to see the battle between anomalies and actual SST temps across the ENSO region. A warm Pacific profile say like the super 1997 event would be considered a weaker anomaly compared in today's profile.

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

NCEP models are all in on a strong MJO in the WPAC. Euro is still weaker.

[cycloneye]

NCEP models are all in on a strong MJO in the WPAC. Euro is still weaker.

Do you have graphic(s)?

[WaveBreaking]

Seems like the subsurface warm pool for this year is larger and upwelling faster than 2023’s was.





Also it’s even warmer and closer to the surface since February 7th. Idk how the atmosphere side of ENSO is behaving compared to 2023 tho.

[Yellow Evan]

2023 and 1997 had strong MJO pulses a week or two from now in the Pacific. No definitive sign of such yet.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2026989853062144217



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/2027013352409440517