Expert forecasts for the 2026 NATL hurricane season= CSU April forecast=13/6/2 ACE: 90 / TSR=12/5/1 ACE: 66

[Category5Kaiju]

FYI, TSR has officially released their annual ultra-early December outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. They predict 14/7/3 with an ACE of 125. Here's the link to their explanation on what to possibly expect.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2026.pdf

[cycloneye]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.



His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

[DorkyMcDorkface]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I could go off on a tangent over how absurd his reasoning is behind the abnormally warm NATL SST profile in 2023 but I will show restraint for the sake of getting to the point...

Not saying there is zero chance the CanSIPS will verify with its CPAC-based look (we still have the SPB to get past in order to get a clearer picture of how this Niño will evolve) but it's weird he's singling that model out in particular when none of the others have such a depiction at the present time. Not to mention his analogs (1969, 2004 & 2023) just seem far-fetched given they are of varying strengths and flavors; they are the three most active Niño seasons in the modern era so it feels like more than a coincidence he happened to choose them.

[tolakram]

I could go off on a tangent over how absurd his reasoning is behind the abnormally warm NATL SST profile in 2023 but I will show restraint for the sake of getting to the point...

Not saying there is zero chance the CanSIPS will verify with its CPAC-based look (we still have the SPB to get past in order to get a clearer picture of how this Niño will evolve) but it's weird he's singling that model out in particular when none of the others have such a depiction at the present time. Not to mention his analogs (1969, 2004 & 2023) just seem far-fetched given they are of varying strengths and flavors; they are the three most active Niño seasons in the modern era so it feels like more than a coincidence he happened to choose them.

Too late

I think what's interesting about his forecast is the focus on atmospheric linking, or lack thereof. If we have an el nino in ocean temps but the atmosphere is doing something else then a low shear el nino is plausible. I don't agree with the reasoning, and I don't agree with looking at ANY model output this early. Fun to talk about, but as far as I'm concerned the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is still a complete unknown.

[Category5Kaiju]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I understand that many of us are aware that JB's takes can be a hot potato at times, but one thing he raises that intrigues me a bit (and that also has been discussed a month or so ago in the ENSO thread) is the idea that having a warm global background state may possibly help neuter some of the incoming El Nino's detrimental effects on Atlantic activity otherwise.

Of course, this is just a theory, and we need to witness more seasons before firmly concluding anything. However, I think that 2026 will be a good initial litmus test to see how well or how poorly this idea holds up. Assuming we don't get a ridiculously warm Atlantic like we did in 2023 and assuming we don't get as wet of an Africa as we did in 2018, let alone an El Nino that comes in fairly late, will 2026's activity be more in line with the stereotypical El Nino year where activity is scarce and where everything struggles? Or will activity somehow exceed our expectations, even if just slightly? Because if it's the latter despite otherwise fairly unremarkable conditions, then perhaps it may be time to start wondering if RONI will play a bigger role in ENSO-related analyses down the line.

But yeah, his analog years of 1969, 2004, and 2023 are kind of bold to say the least, imho.

[USTropics]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I understand that many of us are aware that JB's takes can be a hot potato at times, but one thing he raises that intrigues me a bit (and that also has been discussed a month or so ago in the ENSO thread) is the idea that having a warm global background state may possibly help neuter some of the incoming El Nino's detrimental effects on Atlantic activity otherwise.

Of course, this is just a theory, and we need to witness more seasons before firmly concluding anything. However, I think that 2026 will be a good initial litmus test to see how well or how poorly this idea holds up. Assuming we don't get a ridiculously warm Atlantic like we did in 2023 and assuming we don't get as wet of an Africa as we did in 2018, let alone an El Nino that comes in fairly late, will 2026's activity be more in line with the stereotypical El Nino year where activity is scarce and where everything struggles? Or will activity somehow exceed our expectations, even if just slightly? Because if it's the latter despite otherwise fairly unremarkable conditions, then perhaps it may be time to start wondering if RONI will play a bigger role in ENSO-related analyses down the line.

But yeah, his analog years of 1969, 2004, and 2023 are kind of bold to say the least, imho.

So I'll preface this with I think JB does have some decent takes on climate patterns, when they are scientifically backed. The geothermal tangent he's been going down for the past 2-3 years is just so off based though, it's borderline conspiracy theory. Let's do some napkin math real quick for this:

Let's go with what he is suggesting, that we have a temperature change (ΔT) of 5°C just from geothermal inputs. We'll set up an equation to find out how much energy we need to do this:

Q = rho * H * Cp * ΔT, where

rho is density of seawater (1025 kg m^-3)
H is column height of water layer (we'll generously say 50-m mixed layer, it's probably deeper than this though)
Cp is specific heat of seawater (approx 4.0 * 10^3 J kg^-1 K^-1)
ΔT = 5 K

That means
Q = 1025 * 50 * 4 * 10^3 * 5 = 1025000000 (or 1.025 * 10^9 J m^-2)

If we want to convert that to a flux over time, we have this simplified equation:
F = Q/t, where

t = 2 months (~60 days is 5.2 * 10^6 seconds)

So we have:
F = (1.025 * 10^9)/(5.2 * 10^6) = 200 W m^-2

For context, the TOTAL warming from solar input (minus turbulent losses) is about 100 W m^-2. Furthermore, literature states that geothermal input globally is on the magnitude of 0.1 - 0.3 W m^-2

So the math is not even in the same universe, let alone ballpark for his theory on geothermal input. It would be double solar input, and no way that is happening. The seismic activity for that would be astronomical, and definitely would be picked up by our monitoring devices.

So disregarding all that geothermal input nonsense, the only takeaway from his 'forecast' is exactly like you alluded to. As far as his analogs, we would need to see the Atlantic ocean temperatures match the El Nino surface temperatures in the Pacific. In that way, competing SST-boundary layer fluxes would not allow for mass subsidence dump in the Atlantic (i.e, competing rising motion, making subseasonal propagation patterns like MJO being the 'swing vote').

It's still very early in the game to even look at this data (i.e., need to wait until spring predicability barrier to assess this), but there is little model support at this time to back up his claim.

[cycloneye]

April 9th is the date when CSU will release it's first 2026 forecast.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2034717131225670032

[wxman57]

I'm thinking normal to a little below normal. Moderate El Nino and the EC is forecasting very high shear in the Caribbean and MDR. Might not be good for the Gulf coast, though, as storms may develop as waves near the northern Yucatan. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre April 7th.

[cycloneye]

Crownweather services has it's first forecast for this upcomming season.

- SUMMARY: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.
- THE NUMBERS: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.
- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.
The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.
- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.
- MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS SEASON MAY OCCUR DURING MAY, JUNE & JULY: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.
This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.
- AREAS OF CONCERN THIS SEASON: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
Another area that I have some concerns in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.
I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
FINALLY, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

[CyclonicFury]

Crownweather services has it's first forecast for this upcomming season.

- SUMMARY: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.
- THE NUMBERS: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.
- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.
The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.
- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.
- MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS SEASON MAY OCCUR DURING MAY, JUNE & JULY: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.
This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.
- AREAS OF CONCERN THIS SEASON: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
Another area that I have some concerns in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.
I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
FINALLY, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

I'd agree on the general range for the numbers, but I don't really agree on a majority of activity being in May-July. Aside from much of the 2010s, May activity isn't very common, and June tends to be quiet during Niños as CAG favors the EPAC more. July during Niños can be more active than usual due to MCS activity off the United States east coast and northern Gulf.

Only 1997 really had a majority of its activity that early, with 5 of its 8 storms forming before August 1. 2002 had only one storm before August, 2009 had none. 2015 had 8 of its 11 storms form after July. 2018, though I doubt 2026 will be as busy as that year since the Niño will likely be stronger, had 12 of its 15 storms form after July.

I would still expect the peak of activity to be around late August to mid-September, which would be significantly earlier than the last two years.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Crownweather services has it's first forecast for this upcomming season.

- SUMMARY: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.
- THE NUMBERS: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.
- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.
The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.
- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.
- MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS SEASON MAY OCCUR DURING MAY, JUNE & JULY: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.
This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.
- AREAS OF CONCERN THIS SEASON: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
Another area that I have some concerns in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.
I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
FINALLY, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

I believe that we're gonna have an average early season with 2-3 storms forming before August (depending on whether or not we get a May storm), and then I believe there will be at least a 3-4 week time period in Late August and early September in which the Atlantic will be favorable enough to squeeze a few storms out during it's peak. And then afterwards, I expect the late season to be pretty lackluster to completely dead, especially once we get into November as I've noticed that in the past few Nino years, Novembers tend to be pretty dead. I am surprised that this forecast calls for an active early season, especially since I've seen people say that it is possible that we don't start until July this year. I do think the chance is there for a May storm, but that's a wait and see situation since May only happens once every few years or so.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Crownweather services has it's first forecast for this upcomming season.

- SUMMARY: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.
- THE NUMBERS: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.
- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.
The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.
- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.
- MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS SEASON MAY OCCUR DURING MAY, JUNE & JULY: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.
This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.
- AREAS OF CONCERN THIS SEASON: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
Another area that I have some concerns in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.
I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
FINALLY, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

I believe that we're gonna have an average early season with 2-3 storms forming before August (depending on whether or not we get a May storm), and then I believe there will be at least a 3-4 week time period in Late August and early September in which the Atlantic will be favorable enough to squeeze a few storms out during it's peak. And then afterwards, I expect the late season to be pretty lackluster to completely dead, especially once we get into November as I've noticed that in the past few Nino years, Novembers tend to be pretty dead. I am surprised that this forecast calls for an active early season, especially since I've seen people say that it is possible that we don't start until July this year. I do think the chance is there for a May storm, but that's a wait and see situation since May only happens once every few years or so.

I think it'll be difficult to avoid a below average (hard not to envision it with what could be an impending Super Niño the likes of 1982-83/1997-98/2015-16) but to what extent remains to be seen. Compared to 2023 there's a lot more stacked against the NATL this year (an even stronger Niño, +PMM, cooler MDR/deep tropics). If we get a system or two that finds a window of favorability to become an MH out in the open Atlantic that could be the difference between, say, 40 ACE and 60 ACE. I think 70 is the ceiling though, and that might be generous.

I know there were also brief musings of an Atlantic Niño potentially forming but somehow I doubt that will make much of a difference in these circumstances.

[Steve]

Accuweather
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... er/1875776



11-16 NS
4-7 H
2-4 MH
3-5 Direct US Impacts

[CyclonicFury]

Although I wouldn't go as far to call myself an "expert" even though I have a met degree, I have released my preliminary 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on my blog. Like many on here, I expect a below average season. I expect a significantly stronger Nino than 2018, without Atlantic warmth to counteract the Nino like 2023. My full thoughts are here:
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/

[cycloneye]

WeatherTiger has his first forecast and has a 55% chance to be below normal. Here is the whole outlook.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ason-first

[LarryWx]

Makes sense: this is still not that quiet though

From JB:

April 5, 2026

The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season

Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105

The closest analog is 2015

[CyclonicFury]

University of Arizona's forecast is out...they went against the grain with 20-9-4 with 155 ACE
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf

[cycloneye]

Wow, they rely on the Atlantic Niño to be out there.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow....that UA forecast was something I did NOT expect at all. Here's UA's track record btw (2019 was their first year of issuing seasonal predictions, and they did so in June; otherwise, these are how their April numbers held up against the actual numbers).

2019: 16/8/3 (Actual was 18/6/3)

2020: 19/10/5 (Actual was 30/14/7)

2021: 18/8/4 (Actual was 21/7/4)

2022: 14/7/3 (Actual was 14/8/2)

2023: 19/9/5 (Actual was 20/7/3)

2024: 21/11/5 (Actual was 18/11/5)

2025: 15/7/3 (Actual was 13/5/4)


As you can see, UA's NS count normally has had a margin of error of 3 storms, with 2020 being an outlier (in terms of underestimation) and 2022 being spot-on. Hurricane-wise, the margin of error has been 2 storms, with 2020 being an outlier again (in terms of underestimation) and 2024 being spot-on. Major hurricane-wise, the margin of error has been 2 storms, with 2019, 2021, and 2024 being spot-on.

Overall, I'd argue that UA has an extremely good prediction record. Now, I will admit that their 20/9/4 prediction (and even when considering their past margin of error, 17/7/2 at the low-end) is....quite something else , especially considering factors such as the developing, strong El Nino in the Pacific and some of the lackluster precipitation plots for peak season. We'll have to see if UA's analyses on future Atlantic basin conditions, such as tropical warming, do indeed pan out.

I think this prediction will go down in two ways. Either, it turns out to be a "what-the-heck-were-they-thinking" prediction that gets laughed at and overshadowed by the below-average ones that turn out to be correct in the end. Or, UA will receive the last laugh themselves, and their prediction that the Atlantic won't be as inhospitable as once thought turns out to be true (a la 2023, when they were one of the very few agencies that, early-on, predicted high levels of activity despite the incoming El Nino).

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Wow, they rely on the Atlantic Niño to be out there.

Heavily so. Honestly it's possible it may give activity a bit of a boost given it can increase general background vorticity for waves in the MDR (if the MDR itself is at least decently warm anyway), but like, in the end I find it difficult to believe it will prove a significant countermeasure to the glaring elephant in the room occuring on the other side of the globe...