SIO: GEZANI - Tropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

90S INVEST 260201 0000 12.6S 67.2E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS CONTINUING
TO CONSOLIDATE. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED ZONE 10-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1007 hPa.

Position on February 4 at 4 p.m. local time: 11.6 South / 63.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1340 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2010 km to the sector: EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered 700 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and shows signs of slow intensification.

This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength starting Thursday evening, followed by more rapid intensification beginning Friday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED ZONE 10-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.

Position on February 5 at 10 a.m. local time: 13.5 South / 61.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1050 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1800 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered approximately 400 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and is showing signs of slow intensification.

This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength by Friday, followed by more rapid intensification starting Saturday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.

Position on February 5 at 4 p.m. local time: 14.1 South / 61.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 970 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1760 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a tropical disturbance and is located approximately 320 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.

The system's intensification may be slightly slower than initially anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions between now and Friday. The moderate tropical storm stage is therefore delayed until Friday evening. It is expected to pass near Saint Brandon around Saturday morning.

- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status starting Sunday. The system is then expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday. It is important to note that considerable uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the system.

Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:

- For Reunion Island:

No influence from this system is expected until Saturday inclusive. From Sunday onwards, and especially on Monday, this system may influence weather conditions in Réunion in terms of wind, sea state, and rainfall. However, given the uncertainties associated with the still distant forecast (4-day forecast), it is far too early to determine the extent of this influence.

- For Mayotte:

No influence is expected on Mayotte in the next 5 days regarding this system.

Information for other areas of the basin:

No influence from this system is expected over the next 3 days on other inhabited areas of the basin.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low-pressure system over the next few days:

Tropical Depression

Center positioned on 06/02 at 16:00 local time, by 15.6 South / 59.9 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

Center positioned on 07/02 at 16pm local time, by 16.9 South / 59.2 East.

Tropical Cyclone

Center positioned on 08/02 at 16:00 local time, by 17.9 South / 57.8 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

Center positioned on 09/02 at 16:00 local time, by 18.3 South / 54.6 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

Center positioned on 10/02 at 4 PM local time, at 19.0 South / 50.7 East

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 10-2025-2026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.

Position on February 6 at 04:00 local time: 15.0 South / 60.7 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 840 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1690 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 has transitioned to a tropical depression this night and is located approximately 190 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.

- There is little change to the official forecast compared to previous networks.

The system is slowly moving south-southwest until Saturday evening. Its development is slow during this period, in an environment that remains partially favorable. The moderate tropical storm stage is thus delayed until Friday night into Saturday, during which it is expected to pass near Saint Brandon.

- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status from Monday. The system should then pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday.

-It is important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the phenomenon.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 10-2025-2026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.

Position on February 6 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.0 South / 60.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 725 km to the NORTHEAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1650 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical Depression system #10-20252026 remains a tropical depression near the Saint Brandon archipelago. It continues to move south-southwest.

- Over the next 48 hours, this system is not expected to undergo significant intensification and will evolve slowly off the coast of Mauritius. From the end of the weekend, as it moves westward, it could experience a phase of intensification as it approaches Madagascar.

- Given the current low intensity of the system and the numerous sources of uncertainty, it is not certain that it will reach the stage of a moderate tropical storm. These forecasts may change

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 10-2025-2026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.

Position on February 7 at 04:00 local time: 17.8 South / 58.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 485 km to the Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1570 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is located a little less than 300 km north-northeast of Mauritius. It has experienced a slight, temporary increase in intensity, returning to Tropical Depression status.

Over the next 36 to 48 hours, this system is not expected to undergo significant intensification while moving slowly off the north coast of Mauritius. From the end of the weekend, and especially on Monday, as it moves westward, it could experience a more significant intensification phase. According to the current forecast, it could make landfall in Madagascar between Tuesday and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

[Ulf]

Both Meteo France and models were very bullish just a couple days ago. But now, it looks like Madagascar might just dodge a bullet on this one. We will see.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 10-2025-2026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.

Position on February 7 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.4 South / 58.2 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 390 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1530 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is located just under 200 km north-northeast of Mauritius. Its intensity remains unchanged, leaving it at the stage of a Tropical Depression.

- Over the next 36 hours, this system is not expected to experience significant intensification while evolving slowly off the north coast of Mauritius and Reunion Island, exhibiting an erratic trajectory.

- On Monday, as it moves west, it could experience a more significant intensification phase and then, according to the current forecast, it could land on Madagascar between Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Given the current low intensity of the system and the uncertainties, these forecasts may change.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.5S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION KEEPING THE LLC COVERED FROM VIEW. A TIMELY 070511Z ASCAT-
B PARTIAL PASS REVEALED THE LLC TO BE HIGHLY ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH SURPRISINGLY LIGHT WINDS CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). MAXIMUM WINDS OF
JUST 25 KNOTS WERE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC, THOUGH
IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT MORE ELEVATED WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH THE ASCAT MISSED.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
VORTEX REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICALLY TILTED, WHICH IS KEEPING A
LID ON DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
90S WILL TURN WESTWARD IMMINENTLY, AND TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND AND PROLONG THE DEVELOPMENTAL PERIOD BEYOND
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1007 hPa.

Position on February 7 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.5 South / 57.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 340 km to the NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1470 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- System No. 10-20252026 is located just under 200 km north of Mauritius and is beginning to weaken. Its intensity has decreased, leaving it at the stage of a Tropical Disturbance.

- Over the next 36 hours, this system is expected to maintain its low intensity while evolving slowly off the north coast of Mauritius and Reunion Island, exhibiting an erratic trajectory.

- On Monday, as it moves west, it could experience a more significant intensification phase and then, according to the current forecast, it could land on Madagascar between the end of Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[Ulf]

The fact that it remains uncertain if this system will develop at all before reaching Madagascar despite being in favorable condition is puzzling to say the least.

[cycloneye]

-------------------------------------------------

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 8 at 04:00 local time: 18.0 South / 57.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 355 km to the NORTH-NORTHEAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1410 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: NORTHEAST, at 4 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical storm system #10-20252026 intensified last night, reaching moderate levels. It has now been named GEZANI. It remains located just over 200 km north of Mauritius and is moving slowly.

- Over the next 24 hours, this system is expected to evolve slowly off the north coast of Mauritius without marked intensification.

By Monday, it should move decidedly westward, intensifying steadily and even rapidly. The east coast of Madagascar should then experience the landfall of a mature system (cyclone or intense cyclone) on Tuesday or the following night. A re-emergence and further intensification in the Mozambique Channel could occur in the second half of the week.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1004 hPa.

Position on February 8 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.1 South / 56.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 330 km to the NORTH-NORTHEAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1370 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI was downgraded this morning to a tropical depression. It is located approximately 180 km northwest of Mauritius and is moving slowly.

- Over the next 12 hours, this system is expected to evolve slowly off the north coast of Mauritius without marked intensification.

Starting tonight, it is expected to move sharply westward, intensifying steadily and even rapidly. The east coast of Madagascar should therefore experience the landfall of a mature system (cyclone or intense cyclone) on Tuesday or the following night. A re-emergence and further intensification in the Mozambique Channel could occur in the second half of the week.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1003 hPa.

Position on February 8 at 10 p.m. local time: 17.9 South / 55.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 330 km to the NORTH sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1280 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical depression Gezani is located more than 300 km north of Reunion Island and has resumed a more pronounced west-northwestward movement.

- On this westward direction, Gezani should intensify steadily before reaching the east coast of Madagascar.

Gezani is expected to make landfall in Madagascar as a cyclone, possibly even an intense cyclone, on Tuesday or the following night. It could re-emerge and intensify in the Mozambique Channel later in the week.

- In the longer term, a landing on the Mozambican coast remains very uncertain.

Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:

- For Reunion Island:

The system's influence will remain very limited until it moves away completely. For more information, you can consult our latest bulletins at: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- For Mayotte:

No impact is expected on this system in the next 5 days.

Information for other areas of the basin:

- For Madagascar (particularly the coast of Toamasina Province):

In connection with the possible landfall of this system at a mature stage, the east coast could experience a rapid deterioration in weather conditions starting late Monday night into Tuesday, accompanied by heavy rainfall and strong winds. These conditions will be more pronounced, with very heavy rainfall, destructive winds, and dangerous sea conditions and a risk of coastal flooding possible near the landfall area, the location of which remains uncertain. Residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national weather service.

- For Madagascar (crossing the land: Toamasina province, north of Antananarivo and south of Mahajanga):

As the weather system crosses Madagascar between Tuesday and Wednesday, it will bring deteriorating weather conditions inland. Heavy downpours and strong winds are possible. Residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 9 at 04:00 local time: 18.0 South / 55.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 315 km to the NORTH sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1240 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- Gezani, currently at the stage of a moderate tropical storm, continues to intensify as it moves away from the Mascarene Islands on a westward trajectory.

- On this westward direction, Gezani is expected to intensify steadily before reaching the east coast of Madagascar.

Gezani is expected to make landfall in Madagascar as a cyclone, possibly even an intense cyclone, on Tuesday or the following night. It could re-emerge and intensify in the Mozambique Channel later in the week.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2020776657913848009