Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

Even though AO is tanking, be weary of the WPO...gets too positive, it'll crank up the pacific jet too much, flooding NA with warmer pacific air. It's often overlooked

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1769860800-rHLkbBnsumcgrb2.png

Say no more. The Eastern half of the US will get rocked again lol.

They definitely will the 7th through 10th timeframe, but after that it’s our time to shine

[Stratton23]

Man i would trade my entire life savings just to have a run like the 6z GFS verify lol, that would be awesome hahaha

[Harp.1]

Man i would trade my entire life savings just to have a run like the 6z GFS verify lol, that would be awesome hahaha

I wonder if that run will ever come back??

[Cpv17]

Man i would trade my entire life savings just to have a run like the 6z GFS verify lol, that would be awesome hahaha

I would literally cry if that happened lol

[cajungal]

Man i would trade my entire life savings just to have a run like the 6z GFS verify lol, that would be awesome hahaha

I would literally cry if that happened lol

Yeah it was also showing similar last week and not 1 snowflake. Carolina’s took it

[Ntxw]

DFW got up to 31F for a high. With clear sunny skies today. Very impressive for no cloud cover or significant ice/snow on the ground.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW got up to 31F for a high. With clear sunny skies today. Very impressive for no cloud cover or significant ice/snow on the ground.

I went running this afternoon, around 3PM, and thought the same thing while running. Bright sun and below freezing.

I was also impressed with how much ice is still on the grass around here, obviously shaded areas have the most, but unshaded grass areas still have some. It's been over a week now.

[Quixotic]

I would 100% take off work, pull the kids out of school, and rent a beach house for this event!

But you’d be stuck in Houston. If I was given a choice of Houston or Amarillo, I’d have to think about it.

Regarding Houston, anything inside of Beltway 8 is run down ghetto trash for the most part, most places outside of that area is pretty nice.

I don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea. Houston has always been in competition with Dallas. My problem with Houston is that every time I go there, I see a wreck happen in front of my eyes. Additionally, it’s ungodly humid. I literally smell oil in the air. The mosquitoes are insane and I literally nearly had a wreck when a dragon fly flew into my car on I10. The zoning laws are nonexistent. Everything looks like a want ad on the freeway. I have family there including my middle son, although he lives in a snobby area.

[Quixotic]

DFW got up to 31F for a high. With clear sunny skies today. Very impressive for no cloud cover or significant ice/snow on the ground.

I went running this afternoon, around 3PM, and thought the same thing while running. Bright sun and below freezing.

I was also impressed with how much ice is still on the grass around here, obviously shaded areas have the most, but unshaded grass areas still have some. It's been over a week now.

My front yard and entryway is a death trap. It was so warm Thursday I was like “no worries” and completely wiped out in the driveway. I’m sure my neighbors across the street saved that Ring video. If it’s melting tomorrow I’m going to finish the job I started Monday.

[Quixotic]

So, my understanding is the NAO isn’t really helpful for our part of the country. After spending decades on an eastern board I realized this, but…..it can lock patterns into place. When an airmass is looking to scoot off to the east, the -NAO prohibits it.

For our part of the country, the -AO is important. It means the air masses must travel south instead of being locked up. -AO all by itself can bring an event ( often memorable ). 09-10 is where we had both the negative NAO and AO. Jackpot.

The PDO to me is the most important. It pulls down cold and it splits the jet so we can get cold and precip. An example would be 13-14 where the NAO was positive and the PDO was negative. We rode the roller coaster of warm one week and winter the next. Any airmass that came down took off to the NE because of the lack of blocking.

Anywho, just my perspective from the central part of the country and isn’t that what we care about? PDO, AO then NAO. I know the MJO is important and it’s the initiative but it’s difficult to project out less than 30 days.

[Harp.1]

I hope there are other signs of winter returning because the ops aren’t seeing it yet. They have really backed off what they were showing a few runs ago. I wish I understood. Who knows??

[Stratton23]

Again the operational runs past 5 days drop off fast in terms of accuracy, they did this with our last outbreak as well, the models picked up on the pattern early , eventually they lost it for a couple of days as they normally do, only to bring back the cold in the medium- short range, when we are talking primarily the AO being the driver of cold in february instead of the EPO, thats definitely going to give the OP models a lot of trouble seeing it. We are looking at potential changes just before valentines day, so like the 12/13th , not a single model can be that accurate with the pattern that far out

[Brazoria979cnty]

I hope there are other signs of winter returning because the ops aren’t seeing it yet. They have really backed off what they were showing a few runs ago. I wish I understood. Who knows??

Haven't people on here told you a million times to stop looking at the ops runs and yet you still do it..we have alot of people in here that know what they are talking about and yet you do the opposite lol stop! Relax and ignore the ops

[Harp.1]

I hope there are other signs of winter returning because the ops aren’t seeing it yet. They have really backed off what they were showing a few runs ago. I wish I understood. Who knows??

Haven't people on here told you a million times to stop looking at the ops runs and yet you still do it..we have alot of people in here that know what they are talking about and yet you do the opposite lol stop! Relax and ignore the ops

Read my statement again. I know dat, Edith.

[orangeblood]

Again the operational runs past 5 days drop off fast in terms of accuracy, they did this with our last outbreak as well, the models picked up on the pattern early , eventually they lost it for a couple of days as they normally do, only to bring back the cold in the medium- short range, when we are talking primarily the AO being the driver of cold in february instead of the EPO, thats definitely going to give the OP models a lot of trouble seeing it. We are looking at potential changes just before valentines day, so like the 12/13th , not a single model can be that accurate with the pattern that far out

Losing the AO now...trending positive towards mid-month is what's happening. And frankly, doesn't appear to go nearly as low as was forecast a few days ago. The AO forecast trending positive implies the ensemble expects limited/weak downward coupling from the stratosphere to the troposphere, or other tropospheric forcings (e.g., Pacific patterns, ENSO remnants) overriding it to favor a stronger, more zonal jet stream (flooding the country with Pacific air). This is not the trend you want to see and explains partly why the Ops are losing it.

The Clock is Ticking!!!

[Gotwood]

Again the operational runs past 5 days drop off fast in terms of accuracy, they did this with our last outbreak as well, the models picked up on the pattern early , eventually they lost it for a couple of days as they normally do, only to bring back the cold in the medium- short range, when we are talking primarily the AO being the driver of cold in february instead of the EPO, thats definitely going to give the OP models a lot of trouble seeing it. We are looking at potential changes just before valentines day, so like the 12/13th , not a single model can be that accurate with the pattern that far out

Losing the AO now...trending positive towards mid-month is what's happening. And frankly, doesn't appear to go nearly as low as was forecast a few days ago. The AO forecast trending positive implies the ensemble expects limited/weak downward coupling from the stratosphere to the troposphere, or other tropospheric forcings (e.g., Pacific patterns, ENSO remnants) overriding it to favor a stronger, more zonal jet stream (flooding the country with Pacific air). This is not the trend you want to see and explains partly why the Ops are losing it.

The Clock is Ticking!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/ao/box/1769904000-y6cujbmNU7kgrb2.png

Everything seems to be hinging on whether the PV splits or not.

[Yukon Cornelius]

16 this morning to almost 60 this afternoon. Crazy.

[Harp.1]

Everyone needs to read Larry Cosgrove’s latest blog. He’s on Facebook

[bubba hotep]

Again the operational runs past 5 days drop off fast in terms of accuracy, they did this with our last outbreak as well, the models picked up on the pattern early , eventually they lost it for a couple of days as they normally do, only to bring back the cold in the medium- short range, when we are talking primarily the AO being the driver of cold in february instead of the EPO, thats definitely going to give the OP models a lot of trouble seeing it. We are looking at potential changes just before valentines day, so like the 12/13th , not a single model can be that accurate with the pattern that far out

Losing the AO now...trending positive towards mid-month is what's happening. And frankly, doesn't appear to go nearly as low as was forecast a few days ago. The AO forecast trending positive implies the ensemble expects limited/weak downward coupling from the stratosphere to the troposphere, or other tropospheric forcings (e.g., Pacific patterns, ENSO remnants) overriding it to favor a stronger, more zonal jet stream (flooding the country with Pacific air). This is not the trend you want to see and explains partly why the Ops are losing it.

The Clock is Ticking!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/ao/box/1769904000-y6cujbmNU7kgrb2.png

Everything seems to be hinging on whether the PV splits or not.

I've learned over the years to never hang your hopes on a PV split lol

One thing I did notice with the 00z ensembles was the lack of any significant Northern Hemisphere cold in the long-range means. To me, this typically points towards a battle between extreme cold and extreme warm clusters.

[Stratton23]

Que the “ winters over “ comments