Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Well Ponder ISD just closed rest of the week, 5 days no school.

I just drove to the dentist 15 min away and the untreated roads are still sleet/ice packed. My AWD got me through it, but my gosh, it's amazing how much stuff fell.

It's really crazy to see the impact here especially when we fell way short of the model forecasts haha. I think when it's been this cold it doesn't really matter how much snow we got(because we were all snow here unlike DFW)

It's like spring break in January though. Theres spots in my shady apartment complex that based off the last few years probably isn't gonna melt til we get close to 60 which who knows when that happens(Right in front of the north facing office is a spot I've shocked people with before haha). Pretty amazing

[bubba hotep]

Frigging Frisco ISD closed again. The roads aren’t THAT bad.

Parking lots and sidewalks around the schools. Nothing was treated, and a lot of school access points are pretty shaded. I expect everything to be closed again on Friday, just to play it safe.

[Quixotic]

Frigging Frisco ISD closed again. The roads aren’t THAT bad.

Parking lots and sidewalks around the schools. Nothing was treated, and a lot of school access points are pretty shaded. I expect everything to be closed again on Friday, just to play it safe.

They need to realize that’s my daycare.

[Quixotic]

Frigging Frisco ISD closed again. The roads aren’t THAT bad.

Parking lots and sidewalks around the schools. Nothing was treated, and a lot of school access points are pretty shaded. I expect everything to be closed again on Friday, just to play it safe.

They need to realize that’s my daycare.

I mean I’m retired/self-employed but it’s every 10 minutes: “Dad, can so-and-so come over?” “Dad, we are going down to the park to sled” “Dad, it’s too cold on our hands. Any ideas?” “Dad, so-and-so went into the pond on his sled.” “Dad, we are going to shoot fireworks in the back yard.”……..I’m trying to unravel a complex companies finances with multiple shells while I’m getting all of this.

[HockeyTx82]

With that front coming in tomorrow we may not have much more melting and a hard freeze over the weekend. It may be Monday and we still have a lot of stuff around here, that'll be over a week (7 days)

Did anyone have on their Bingo card to have this kind of an impact this long into the week?

[Gotwood]

It cooled off quick already upper 20s.

[HockeyTx82]

I'm watching Fox Weather, never have and I've never seen a dissection of the models regarding the "Benchmark" for a nor'easter storm. Reminds me of the Weather Channel long time ago.

[Ptarmigan]

18z GFS, yes I know it's 300+ hours out but another piece. Look at that -AO.

https://i.imgur.com/gbMlHws.png

https://i.imgur.com/JNy4toh.png

If that was to happen, it would be on par with late January 1989 in Alaska. The pressure was 1078.6 millibars. That same cold caused the February 1989 Freeze in America.

Alaska's Cold Spell of January, 1989
https://www.gi.alaska.edu/alaska-scienc ... nuary-1989

World and U.S. High Barometric Pressure Records
https://glenallenweather.com/ex9/barome ... ecords.pdf

Early February Freeze Of 1989
https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/onlin ... ta8925.pdf

[Brent]

Yeah I'm not buying much of a warmup the cold is gonna reload in February no matter what the GFS says

The GFS last week numerous times said I would barely get any snow too last weekend so consider the source

[orangeblood]

As has been discussed earlier, still not sold on mid to late month reload of cold into the southern US yet. Don't like what I'm seeing from the EPO and WPO combo. Need it more negative to get enough sustained cold particularly as climatology begins working against us as we progress towards back part of winter. Just look at Euro ENS Temp Forecast end of week 2 - our source region in NW Canada is still torching, not good. As we are model watching, need to start seeing more of an EPO tank forecasted over the next few days for mid month, clock is ticking!!!!!

Euro ENS EPO Forecast


GEFS AI EPO Forecast

[Cpv17]

As has been discussed earlier, still not sold on mid to late month reload of cold into the southern US yet. Don't like what I'm seeing from the EPO and WPO combo. Need it more negative to get enough sustained cold particularly as climatology begins working against us as we progress towards back part of winter. Just look at Euro ENS Temp Forecast end of week 2 - our source region in NW Canada is still torching, not good. As we are model watching, need to start seeing more of an EPO tank forecasted over the next few days for mid month, clock is ticking!!!!!

Euro ENS EPO Forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1769644800-l9eMCmRXA2Mgrb2.png

GEFS AI EPO Forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-ai-all-avg/epo/box/1769666400-7UMZvz2WVpQgrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1769644800/1770940800-5ZL6jsd3xtQ.png

Yep, exactly why I mentioned I was concerned about the EPO yesterday.

[orangeblood]

As has been discussed earlier, still not sold on mid to late month reload of cold into the southern US yet. Don't like what I'm seeing from the EPO and WPO combo. Need it more negative to get enough sustained cold particularly as climatology begins working against us as we progress towards back part of winter. Just look at Euro ENS Temp Forecast end of week 2 - our source region in NW Canada is still torching, not good. As we are model watching, need to start seeing more of an EPO tank forecasted over the next few days for mid month, clock is ticking!!!!!

Euro ENS EPO Forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1769644800-l9eMCmRXA2Mgrb2.png

GEFS AI EPO Forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-ai-all-avg/epo/box/1769666400-7UMZvz2WVpQgrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1769644800/1770940800-5ZL6jsd3xtQ.png

Yep, exactly why I mentioned I was concerned about the EPO yesterday.

The Negative AO can only get you so far, usually need more teleconnections to line up this far south for winter precip

[orangeblood]

Also, what a depressing Precip Anomaly forecast for the US over the next 2 weeks. The dry pattern is relentless!!!



Here's the last 6 months across the US

[Ntxw]

We are now going into the period models are likely to show warmth. Aleutian low.

As for the guidance after this weekend's front we will be entering a period of change again. Warmer source region, not much will happen in the modeling world. For the next 1-2 weeks ensembles is the only game in town. We'll likely revisit 'interesting' OP runs maybe post Feb ~5th.

20th of January

We will lose some cold source air up in Canada most of the continent will actually be very warm due to the Pacific flow coming in with the Aleution low. However cross polar flow sets up after that and it is likely in the second week of February and beyond that we will have a fresh cold source with blocking over the top to really deliver.

See you all after the 5th!

[Texas Snowman]

We’re still buried up here in Grayson County. If we get nothing else this winter season, we’ll remember this winter storm for years to come.

There are numerous buildings, roofs, awnings, carports, horse facilities and marina stall collapses. I think it’s the equivalent or even worse than the December 2013 sleet storm. And that (sleet storm) was as bad as I’ve seen in my 60 years of life and 46 years of living in Grayson County.

So far, our kids in Denison have missed four days of school this go around and tomorrow is dependent on a LOT of melting today. Back in the 2013 storm, they missed five days (Wednesday through Friday and also Monday and Tuesday).

Our KXII Channel 12 met Steve LaNore said there was 4-6 inches of sleet across the county. My yard, street and roof confirm that and are still covered in a heavy layer of sleet this morning and we’re on Day 6.

Friends say the roads are awful and this morning is the worst one yet. Denison PD reported a big backup on Hwy. 75 this morning (for miles according to social media) and streets in town remain very hazardous.

Pretty but dangerous and deadly too.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/video/news/local/why-parts-of-north-texas-are-still-buried-under-ice-and-snow/3975159/

[Stratton23]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

[orangeblood]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO



Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

[rwfromkansas]

I will say the teleconnection forecasts do change so in a week it may look better. Honestly I can’t afford another week off with deadlines but I would love just 6 inches of snow. Lol.

[Ntxw]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1768392000-xhvR9D6TE14grb2.png

Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

While I agree the -EPO is a great indicator, it is not always the case. Feb 2021 did not have a major dive before, during, or after.

Code: Select all

2021 01 01  144.10
2021 01 02  282.21
2021 01 03  318.06
2021 01 04  267.71
2021 01 05  273.33
2021 01 06  261.38
2021 01 07  162.70
2021 01 08   87.99
2021 01 09   46.86
2021 01 10  170.47
2021 01 11  239.72
2021 01 12  247.57
2021 01 13  214.15
2021 01 14   88.49
2021 01 15  151.49
2021 01 16   86.89
2021 01 17   58.29
2021 01 18  -48.06
2021 01 19    0.37
2021 01 20  -14.91
2021 01 21  -75.51
2021 01 22  -79.36
2021 01 23   -4.28
2021 01 24   42.98
2021 01 25   36.78
2021 01 26   15.97
2021 01 27  -49.46
2021 01 28   21.72
2021 01 29  183.50
2021 01 30  134.96
2021 01 31  -73.45
2021 02 01 -153.06
2021 02 02  -88.37
2021 02 03  -18.42
2021 02 04  -42.89
2021 02 05 -110.34
2021 02 06  -98.65
2021 02 07  -34.26
2021 02 08  -22.86
2021 02 09  -33.24
2021 02 10  -61.17
2021 02 11  -44.40
2021 02 12   -8.26
2021 02 13   24.49
2021 02 14   97.49
2021 02 15  179.46
2021 02 16  169.60
2021 02 17  111.90
2021 02 18  162.43
2021 02 19  205.77

[Stratton23]

orangeblood oh no doubt the EPO is a big player , but at least it is negative, wouldn’t take much to push it more negative, but i mean we are talking the 2nd week of february and these telconnection maps change daily, I guess we will see, but i find it hard to believe that we wont get cold with a persistent strong - AO coupled with a complete Split of the PV which may or may not end up turning into a SSWE