Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

looking at the ensembles coming in now, I really dont see much in the way of a warm over the next 2-3 weeks, maybe a brief 1-2 day warmup after this next arctic front this weekend, but overall looks rather chilly these next couple of weeks, and already as we get into february the ensembles show the west coast ridging popping off into alaska again, but also a strong - NAO greenland block developing, in addition the models are trending toward possibly a big trough centered over the central US toward the end of the first week of february , all this to say is that winter is in firm control and looks to stay that way over the next 30-40 days

Agreed, dry cold looks to rule over the next 10 days (++PNA) but the end of week 2 is looking much better as we get the PNA to relax allowing systems to dig into the southwest US. Feb 10-20th is primed for winter weather in the south

PNA in the neutral range tends to be more favorable for the southern plains in these setups
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/pna/box/1769407200-sGvi7DTpHHMgrb2.png

PNA too positive day 10 but relaxes end of week 2
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1769407200/1770271200-9xsyaJdWqbE.png

Great looking 500 mb chart end of week 2
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1769407200/1770789600-iSf7U6I6Y8k.png

We will see for sure. Seems like the theme this winter looks good 2-3 weeks out only to go east again.

[Ntxw]

-EPO reached -390 which is comparable to December 2022's -389. The main difference was there was a Baja low to provide system/moisture.

2026 01 15 -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34
2026 01 17 -335.22
2026 01 18 -380.75
2026 01 19 -390.75
2026 01 20 -347.51
2026 01 21 -313.47
2026 01 22 -294.63
2026 01 23 -274.49

[rwfromkansas]

I bet I hit 29 today. Think we will over perform the forecast. These first warm days often do so.

[Snowman67]

Got down to 22.6 IMBY

[HockeyTx82]

Went from 18 at 8AM to 24 at 11:21AM. I wonder if we'll get above freezing today?

[rwfromkansas]

Think we may even hit 32, it’s warming fast.

[Ntxw]

Went from 18 at 8AM to 24 at 11:21AM. I wonder if we'll get above freezing today?

We will likely hold 26-28 for a while. Upper end would be 30 considering it is still 20s in south central TX. To get above freezing you will likely need to be 30 by 1-2pm. In winter generally peak solar heating is about time time frame near 2-3.

[orangeblood]

Checking in on the power grid this morning....Baseload Power (Nat Gas, Coal, Nuclear) accounting for 89% of power generation with 68% Nat Gas alone. This Historical Arctic Outbreak was a good test of what the Texas Legislature has done over the past 4 years since the 2021 debacle. Bravo to everyone involved in improving our grid!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_lpV1bXwAAI1nc?format=jpg&name=large

Was this really that much of a test? 3 days subfreezing, a solid but not unusual accumulation, and the major metros never reached the single digits. Before this started we knew this wasn’t much of a test of the failure points in 2021. To be honest if there were failures on the power generation side at all during this event, I’d be more skeptical than I already am.

Several January records have been set across the state (coldest time of year) including where a lot of our energy infrastructure originates from (West Texas). Add to the increases in population and infrastructure demand centers (AI Data Centers/Bitcoin Mining etc), I'd say it was a really good test.

[wxman22]

Look at all the snow and sleet on the ground. This was a great winter storm IMO.

[orangeblood]

Euro and CMC down to single digits across the N/2 of North Texas on Saturday morning. Winter has completely flipped in the modeling world...from warmer as we get closer to now colder. Amazing!!

[Ntxw]

Euro and CMC down to single digits across the N/2 of North Texas on Saturday morning. Winter has completely flipped in the modeling world...from warmer as we get closer to now colder. Amazing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1769428800/1769860800-yh19gC7I1OM.png

Dry cold unfortunately. We all had a feeling it would be colder, another 1050s high pressure wasn't just going to be a typical 35/29 type of a day.

Also the cold anomalies are equal or greater than the warm anomalies early month. We'll end up canceling it to near normal with a shot of slightly below normal, amazing! Perhaps we will look back and say it was a winter of ~4 weeks of insane warmth surrounded by cold, since the first half of December was actually well below normal.

[orangeblood]

Euro and CMC down to single digits across the N/2 of North Texas on Saturday morning. Winter has completely flipped in the modeling world...from warmer as we get closer to now colder. Amazing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1769428800/1769860800-yh19gC7I1OM.png

Dry cold unfortunately. We all had a feeling it would be colder, another 1050s high pressure wasn't just going to be a typical 35/29 type of a day.

Also the cold anomalies are equal or greater than the warm anomalies early month. We'll end up canceling it to near normal with a shot of slightly below normal, amazing! Perhaps we will look back and say it was a winter of ~4 weeks of insane warmth in a surrounded by cold.

Almost as if Winter was playing a football game, remarkable halftime adjustments!!

[Iceresistance]

My lowest temperature last night was 2°F

Someone in Kingfisher fell to -11°F

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Euro and CMC down to single digits across the N/2 of North Texas on Saturday morning. Winter has completely flipped in the modeling world...from warmer as we get closer to now colder. Amazing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1769428800/1769860800-yh19gC7I1OM.png

Dry cold unfortunately. We all had a feeling it would be colder, another 1050s high pressure wasn't just going to be a typical 35/29 type of a day.

Also the cold anomalies are equal or greater than the warm anomalies early month. We'll end up canceling it to near normal with a shot of slightly below normal, amazing! Perhaps we will look back and say it was a winter of ~4 weeks of insane warmth surrounded by cold, since the first half of December was actually well below normal.

Hopeful we will get active again sooner rather than later. It is fun tracking potential opportunities

[Ntxw]

What we should watch for is a nosedive of the -AO. Ridge anomalies from Greenland->Davis Straits->Hudson Bay blocking should retrograde by that 2nd week of Feb. With the Pacific remaining favorable. MJO supports it.

[Harp.1]

What we should watch for is a nosedive of the -AO. Ridge anomalies from Greenland->Davis Straits->Hudson Bay blocking should retrograde by that 2nd week of Feb. With the Pacific remaining favorable. MJO supports it.

Would this possibly lead to more southern storms?

[Ntxw]

What we should watch for is a nosedive of the -AO. Ridge anomalies from Greenland->Davis Straits->Hudson Bay blocking should retrograde by that 2nd week of Feb. With the Pacific remaining favorable. MJO supports it.

Would this possibly lead to more southern storms?

Lower heights means a more active storm track across the US. How far south is anyone's guess currently.