Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

[orangeblood]

looking at the ensembles coming in now, I really dont see much in the way of a warm over the next 2-3 weeks, maybe a brief 1-2 day warmup after this next arctic front this weekend, but overall looks rather chilly these next couple of weeks, and already as we get into february the ensembles show the west coast ridging popping off into alaska again, but also a strong - NAO greenland block developing, in addition the models are trending toward possibly a big trough centered over the central US toward the end of the first week of february , all this to say is that winter is in firm control and looks to stay that way over the next 30-40 days

Agreed, dry cold looks to rule over the next 10 days (++PNA) but the end of week 2 is looking much better as we get the PNA to relax allowing systems to dig into the southwest US. Feb 10-20th is primed for winter weather in the south

PNA in the neutral range tends to be more favorable for the southern plains in these setups


PNA too positive day 10 but relaxes end of week 2


Great looking 500 mb chart end of week 2

[Fifty Rock]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

[orangeblood]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

[HockeyTx82]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

I have a weather station that I can track the temperature on. I never got any colder than that, it did to maybe 12 but that was about it.

[Ntxw]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

I had a feeling it could happen because the Panhandle was the same as our temp with that upper level shortwave bringing clouds and some snow up there last night. Winds also didn't die down. The same could happen tonight. It will keep daytime temps lower, but not able to dive at night, there are pieces of energy continuing to round the trough through the weekend.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler set the record low max yesterday. If it drops to 12 before midnight tonight it will set the record low for today and tomorrow. Late Jan record values are surprisingly warm so no surprise they are getting broken with this spell. Some records are at risk next weekend as well.

[orangeblood]

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

I had a feeling it could happen because the Panhandle was the same as our temp with that upper level shortwave bringing clouds and some snow up there last night. Winds also didn't die down. The same could happen tonight. It will keep daytime temps lower, but not able to dive at night, there are pieces of energy continuing to round the trough through the weekend.

Latest GFS confirming PV split at around day 12 with almost an immediate propagation towards the Troposphere...as you've been hinting at, this back half of winter is looking really interesting

[snownado]

Thank you everyone for the likes and well wishes about my in laws.

Interestingly enough it looks like I only got down to 13 this morning, far cry from the single digit numbers they were calling for.

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

^^^Thank goodness for that!!!

[snownado]

I bet you were there at some point overnight. We got down to 3.8 degrees and it’s been a steady rise to 14 degrees now.

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

I had a feeling it could happen because the Panhandle was the same as our temp with that upper level shortwave bringing clouds and some snow up there last night. Winds also didn't die down. The same could happen tonight. It will keep daytime temps lower, but not able to dive at night, there are pieces of energy continuing to round the trough through the weekend.

.

We should see full sunshine by late morning / early afternoon, which should help temps get into the mid/upper 20s.

There should also be much more clearing tonight, but at the same time, WAA will already be under way (which will also keep radiational cooling in check).

[Ntxw]

North Texas got too cloudy with this small S/W moving through, didn't maximize radiational cooling effects before sunrise. Kept temps 5-6 deg warmer than forecast

I had a feeling it could happen because the Panhandle was the same as our temp with that upper level shortwave bringing clouds and some snow up there last night. Winds also didn't die down. The same could happen tonight. It will keep daytime temps lower, but not able to dive at night, there are pieces of energy continuing to round the trough through the weekend.

.

We should see full sunshine by late morning / early afternoon, which should help temps get into the mid/upper 20s.

There should also be much more clearing tonight, but at the same time, WAA will already be under way (which will also keep radiational cooling in check).

Clouds should be rolling in tonight from the west/southwest.

[Ntxw]

Latest GFS confirming PV split at around day 12 with almost an immediate propagation towards the Troposphere...as you've been hinting at, this back half of winter is looking really interesting
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_g39zAW4AEmEhb?format=jpg&name=medium

I've been zoning in starting the second week of Feb for awhile and still think that's when the pattern is ripe, first week source region isn't cold enough. The SPV potential reversal will probably reinforce it more towards the end of Feb and into March but the AO will already be very negative by then. Likely a few winter storms in there.

[orangeblood]

Checking in on the power grid this morning....Baseload Power (Nat Gas, Coal, Nuclear) accounting for 89% of power generation with 68% Nat Gas alone. This Historical Arctic Outbreak was a good test of what the Texas Legislature has done over the past 4 years since the 2021 debacle. Bravo to everyone involved in improving our grid!

[wxman22]

We got down to 5 degrees here. Clouds kept the temp from dropping below zero.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I love that the WARMEST days over the next two weeks are what we would consider an average winter day (highs and lows).

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 13, so 2 degrees warmer than yesterday but impressive cold still, just not 9.

[Wthrfan]

We got down to 5 degrees here. Clouds kept the temp from dropping below zero.

Got down to 4 at my house. Friday night the forecast was for -5 Sunday night. Glad the clouds moved in a bit.

[Wthrfan]

You know this storm might not have broken records here like people expected or hoped for but wow...to be on the higher end of storms and be this cold is really something. There's already places below zero in the state before 9pm. This is pretty crazy ngl

I bet the schools will be closed or virtual most of the week because our warmest high showing up is 33 and I mean it's gonna be in a mess in the neighborhoods and wherever it's shady all week because it never warms up enough

According to TWC, OKC is suppose to hit the low 40s Wed. and Thursday but fall back below freezing Friday and Saturday. Took awhile for winter to get here, but I like what I'm seeing from mid-February on.

[HockeyTx82]

Sun is really coming out, I'm up to 20 already.

[cheezyWXguy]

Checking in on the power grid this morning....Baseload Power (Nat Gas, Coal, Nuclear) accounting for 89% of power generation with 68% Nat Gas alone. This Historical Arctic Outbreak was a good test of what the Texas Legislature has done over the past 4 years since the 2021 debacle. Bravo to everyone involved in improving our grid!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_lpV1bXwAAI1nc?format=jpg&name=large

Was this really that much of a test? 3 days subfreezing, a solid but not unusual accumulation, and the major metros never reached the single digits. Before this started we knew this wasn’t much of a test of the failure points in 2021. To be honest if there were failures on the power generation side at all during this event, I’d be more skeptical than I already am.