Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Tireman4]

Travis Herzog..ABC 13..Houston Pro Met

A “warm nose” of air about a mile above the ground (where temperatures are still above 50°) has so far spared the city of Houston from any major problems. How do we know this warmer air aloft is helping keep us above freezing? Because in many places along the HWY 59 corridor it got below freezing, and then when the thunderstorms blew in, the temperature warmed up a few degrees as the rain was falling.

Now that the precipitation is departing, the freeze line will try to move back in. Elevated roadways (like the big flyovers and connector ramps) may still freeze over where temperatures fall into the 20s because the humidity is so high and moisture remains on the ground. This is called a “flash freeze.” Surface streets should stay fine in many places south and east of Houston, but use caution on the roadways. I would recommend using DriveTexas.org to check up on frozen roadways and road closures if you venture out.

Regardless of what happens to roadways in your neck of the woods, a hard freeze is coming the next two nights, and that’s when you’ll need to protect your pipes.

All things considered, Houston is about in the best position you could have hoped for at this time, and our team will continue to monitor things for you throughout the day and night.

[TxHunter66]

Lite flurries here in Weatherford. Definitely not les. We had 3" of sleet and frozen mix. A friend of mine 10 miles east, had less. The way the band were trianing I can see why.

[iorange55]

OK snowfall busting kind of sucks, but that was more of a ratio issue than anything else. Unfortunately, that can happen when it's as cold as it is (you end up with sugary / sandy snow that's very inefficient for accumulation). Yes, it still ended up being an unusual amount fo snowfall for the region, but that shouldn't preclude having a post-mortem discussion about how the event performed vs. predictions / expectations.

As far as DFW, I'm glad things busted. In fact, it seems Plano happens to be within the precip minimum across the whole Metroplex, as there's still plenty of grass tips visible with maybe about 1/2" of sleet on the ground at best. Aside from the fact that we virtually missed out on freezing rain, the shower-y / streaky natue of the forcing locally kept other impacts (I.E. power outages, heavy accumulation, drifting, etc.) and final frozen/freezing totals in check. Travel is still trecherous, but certainly not the apocalyptic outcome that many on social media and even some mets were hyping up.

And really, the outcome for DFW shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The models for at least 48 hours before the onset were already steadfast on the surface temps dropping below freezing slower than projected Saturday morning, the warm nose aloft being quite deep/stubbron and there being a massive dry slot. If one chose to ignore it, that's on them for being (with all due respect) delusional.

With all of that being said, the focus now shifts to having to survive this god awful polar airmass for the next 48 hours, and possibly some mood flakes (LES) before we warm back up to still unseasonably cold but more manageable temps and head into another dry/boring period...

I’m not sure I’d call this forecast a “bust” unless you were strictly paying attention to social media hype amateurs. NWS had a pretty good read on this situation, and I firmly disagree that temps on Saturday morning contributed to any so-called bust.

Also, as for down here in Austin, you might say it was a “bust” when it comes to us getting sleet instead of freezing rain, but that’s incredibly difficult to predict. Also, we only got sleet because the temps were colder than forecast.

I think given the uncertainty, putting out an ice storm warning was the right call, seeing as how this could have been crippling if all the precip that fell overnight was freezing rain.

Sometimes I feel we get too caught up on the hype forecasts, and then are quick to call things a bust because they don’t align with them.

[jaguars_22]

No luck for next weekends system! All rain which we need! We really need a flood here… most of the cold will probably start going east of us from now on…

It still was pretty cool seeing lightning and hearing thunder during a sleet shower around 5am

[wxman22]

More snow showers are developing to the west of us, Lubbock is reporting snow. May get another round of snow in a couple of hours here if it holds together.

[jasons2k]

Well gang, I busted this one. I'm having a crow buffet here today. I thought I would hit freezing here yesterday about 6PM before the overnight precip. moved-in.

Well, at 3AM it was thundering and raining cats and dogs, and still hovering at 33 degrees.I had .62" overnight but only a thin layer of ice stuck around. We dodged a bullet here.

Now it's 27, cold, gray, and windy.

[Cpv17]

No luck for next weekends system! All rain which we need! We really need a flood here… most of the cold will probably start going east of us from now on…

It still was pretty cool seeing lightning and hearing thunder during a sleet shower around 5am

Nah, next weekend still looks very cold for us.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw or orangeblood, do yall still like the mid February timeframe for maybe another cold stormier pattern here? Just curious.

Second week of Feb looks like January of last year. AO nosedive and SPV look has been hinting at it since early January, along with the weeklies. Not saying we see snow in the gulf (longer wavelengths), but you roll the dice in a similar pattern with shorter wavelengths Feb version.

[GeauxTigers]

More snow showers are developing to the west of us, Lubbock is reporting snow. May get another round of snow in a couple of hours here if it holds together.

Hopefully we get some of that here.

[Gotwood]

Ntxw or orangeblood, do yall still like the mid February timeframe for maybe another cold stormier pattern here? Just curious.

Second week of Feb looks like January of last year. AO nosedive and SPV look has been hinting at it since early January, along with the weeklies. Not saying we see snow in the gulf (longer wavelengths), but you roll the dice in a similar pattern with shorter wavelengths Feb version.

https://i.imgur.com/IEnHs4L.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/O44EPQT.gif

I can do with out that one. What a waste of cold that was for the metroplex. If it isn’t going to precipitate that cold can stay north.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw or orangeblood, do yall still like the mid February timeframe for maybe another cold stormier pattern here? Just curious.

Second week of Feb looks like January of last year. AO nosedive and SPV look has been hinting at it since early January, along with the weeklies. Not saying we see snow in the gulf (longer wavelengths), but you roll the dice in a similar pattern with shorter wavelengths Feb version.

https://i.imgur.com/IEnHs4L.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/O44EPQT.gif

I can do with out that one. What a waste of cold that was for the metroplex. If it isn’t going to precipitate that cold can stay north.

You also had similar patterns in 1978 and 2010 (nino a GOA trough pattern though) with the shorter wavelengths that was wave over wave of snow. I wasn't saying that last year is going to repeat, you set the board and re-roll in similar patterns. It's difficult to pinpoint this far out where systems will set up.

[Stratton23]

Im seeing a major or complete split of the PV, looks like a big SSW possibly, either way id pretty much expect winter to have staying power through early march , maybe a brief thaw out early february, but with that vortex split, it could potentially be a wild 2nd of february and beyond

[snownado]

OK snowfall busting kind of sucks, but that was more of a ratio issue than anything else. Unfortunately, that can happen when it's as cold as it is (you end up with sugary / sandy snow that's very inefficient for accumulation). Yes, it still ended up being an unusual amount fo snowfall for the region, but that shouldn't preclude having a post-mortem discussion about how the event performed vs. predictions / expectations.

As far as DFW, I'm glad things busted. In fact, it seems Plano happens to be within the precip minimum across the whole Metroplex, as there's still plenty of grass tips visible with maybe about 1/2" of sleet on the ground at best. Aside from the fact that we virtually missed out on freezing rain, the shower-y / streaky natue of the forcing locally kept other impacts (I.E. power outages, heavy accumulation, drifting, etc.) and final frozen/freezing totals in check. Travel is still trecherous, but certainly not the apocalyptic outcome that many on social media and even some mets were hyping up.

And really, the outcome for DFW shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The models for at least 48 hours before the onset were already steadfast on the surface temps dropping below freezing slower than projected Saturday morning, the warm nose aloft being quite deep/stubbron and there being a massive dry slot. If one chose to ignore it, that's on them for being (with all due respect) delusional.

With all of that being said, the focus now shifts to having to survive this god awful polar airmass for the next 48 hours, and possibly some mood flakes (LES) before we warm back up to still unseasonably cold but more manageable temps and head into another dry/boring period...

I’m not sure I’d call this forecast a “bust” unless you were strictly paying attention to social media hype amateurs. NWS had a pretty good read on this situation, and I firmly disagree that temps on Saturday morning contributed to any so-called bust.

Even going strictly by predictions, the forecast was for 0.25" - 0.50" of freezing rain. That didn't happen and was a bust (no debate). And that is in large part because the temps struggle to fall below freezing while the precipitationw as liquid overnight Friday into Saturday.

The sleet, I'll grant you, is a bit more debatable. Model consensus was for *SEVERAL* inches of sleet (all of the images were posted throughout this thread), which didn't happen. The NWS also originally called for 2-4" as of Thursday afternoon. The storm total map from Fox 4 only shows a general 1-2" of sleet across the Metroplex (which is arguably still overdone in some areas). But to the NWS's credit, they did correct their forecast totals to 1-2" of sleet by Friday morning.

It's ok to admit the event underachieved while also admitting it was still impactful / unusual for this region. Both things are true.

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw or orangeblood, do yall still like the mid February timeframe for maybe another cold stormier pattern here? Just curious.

February will for sure see a transition to a wetter pattern. The key will be to work out the timing of the cold.

[Iceresistance]

Got a serious problem, I have no heat, the heater failed earlier this morning.

That sucks.

It just started working again, answered prayer!

[Gotwood]

Sun coming out melting the roof going to have some nice icicles

[bubba hotep]

12z models are in pretty good agreement that an impulse will drive snow showers towards North Texas later today. Amounts vary by model, but it looks like some areas could see measurable snowfall between this and LES.

[Gotwood]

Second week of Feb looks like January of last year. AO nosedive and SPV look has been hinting at it since early January, along with the weeklies. Not saying we see snow in the gulf (longer wavelengths), but you roll the dice in a similar pattern with shorter wavelengths Feb version.

https://i.imgur.com/IEnHs4L.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/O44EPQT.gif

I can do with out that one. What a waste of cold that was for the metroplex. If it isn’t going to precipitate that cold can stay north.

You also had similar patterns in 1978 and 2010 (nino a GOA trough pattern though) with the shorter wavelengths that was wave over wave of snow. I wasn't saying that last year is going to repeat, you set the board and re-roll in similar patterns. It's difficult to pinpoint this far out where systems will set up.

That sounds better.

[Cpv17]

Ntxw or orangeblood, do yall still like the mid February timeframe for maybe another cold stormier pattern here? Just curious.

Second week of Feb looks like January of last year. AO nosedive and SPV look has been hinting at it since early January, along with the weeklies. Not saying we see snow in the gulf (longer wavelengths), but you roll the dice in a similar pattern with shorter wavelengths Feb version.

https://i.imgur.com/IEnHs4L.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/O44EPQT.gif

I can do with out that one. What a waste of cold that was for the metroplex. If it isn’t going to precipitate that cold can stay north.

Man, I’ll take the cold with our without precipitation. Extreme events excite me either way. Obviously, extreme cold with precipitation is the pinnacle, but I’ll take extremely cold temperatures anytime.

[wxman22]

It wasn't a bust up here at all. Norman and the local mets were pretty on point with their forecast. I'm glad we don't have to worry about the Ozarks/Ouachita Shadow here, or the UHI affect.