Texas Winter 2025-2026

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TomballEd
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5141 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:04 am

Plain rain here and the back edge of the precip is approaching. Not far away DW Hooks is at 32F.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5142 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:11 am

Just took the dogs out and their reaction was the same as mine upon encountering outside conditions … WTH?!

We ended up with somewhere between 1/2” and 1” of sleet with a layer of freezing rain on top. Extremely hazardous outside! Spectrum Internet is down but we do have power.

And it’s 17°
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5143 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:14 am

As usual with winter storms in this part of the country, 9 out of 10 times low level dense cold usually wins (faster than models forecast) and an upper level warm nose is not going to erode and cool down quicker than modeled. Overall, this was an enjoyable storm to track and really unique - teens and heavy sleet is extremely rare. Also, as far as modeling goes - Euro nailed the upper levels way in advance but was really poor with surface temps as the event got closer; GFS was almost the opposite. Both models have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. Now onto the next one......
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5144 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:27 am

It looks like the sun's about to come out, I guess there's a break in the clouds? Will that jeopardize the high temperature today?

Otherwise, whatever fell in my front yard, it's a solid sheet when I walk on it. It doesn't make a single footprint.

11F with a near or just below 0 windchill.
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TomballEd
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5145 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:35 am

Rain just ended, must have hit freezing, small patches of ice on parts of the car. Most of the car is just wet. The freezing line got here right as the rain ended.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5146 Postby BAY29 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 8:57 am

TomballEd wrote:Rain just ended, must have hit freezing, small patches of ice on parts of the car. Most of the car is just wet. The freezing line got here right as the rain ended.

Same here. I hope we get our chance soon.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5147 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:01 am

Looking at radar overnight a great band of snow came through Abilene on the way to DFW….then evaporated.

Of course.

My grass is covered mostly so I will take it even though it’s almost all sleet. Still looks pretty.

Didn’t measure yet but will in a bit. Now some more is coming in from Midland. But I’m sure it will evaporate like the other final batch, so this is it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5148 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:01 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:It looks like the sun's about to come out, I guess there's a break in the clouds? Will that jeopardize the high temperature today?

Otherwise, whatever fell in my front yard, it's a solid sheet when I walk on it. It doesn't make a single footprint.

11F with a near or just below 0 windchill.


Just a temporary break in the clouds, should cloud back up the remainder of the day as a S/W moves across before clearing at sunset. Allowing for max radiational cooling under clear skies and a fresh Arctic HP overnight :cold:
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Tejas89
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5149 Postby Tejas89 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:08 am

Decent snow mass in west Texas moving toward Abilene, and El Paso radar is still alight this morning. Not sure if anything holds together for NTX today, just an observation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5150 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:08 am

orangeblood wrote:As usual with winter storms in this part of the country, 9 out of 10 times low level dense cold usually wins (faster than models forecast) and an upper level warm nose is not going to erode and cool down quicker than modeled. Overall, this was an enjoyable storm to track and really unique - teens and heavy sleet is extremely rare. Also, as far as modeling goes - Euro nailed the upper levels way in advance but was really poor with surface temps as the event got closer; GFS was almost the opposite. Both models have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. Now onto the next one......


I talked to an NWS forecaster one time about forecasting wintry weather in the South. He said he had worked in several different areas in the country and trying to forecast wintry precipitation (types and amounts) in the South was the toughest job he experienced.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5151 Postby GeauxTigers » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:12 am

Sun is actually coming out here in Tioga (south Grayson county). Was not expecting to see sun so early today. Weather channel app shows cloudy all day. Are we expected to see sun all day today? Will that start the melting even though we are at 10 degrees here?
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5152 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:13 am

So some rules we seem to have:
1) Low-level cold air wins
2) Upper warmth is hard to erode
3) The back tends to come through faster than expected
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5153 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:14 am

We got a lot of snow here on top of all the sleet it looks like a winter wonderland!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5154 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:22 am

Image
Image
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5155 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:27 am

Portastorm wrote:
orangeblood wrote:As usual with winter storms in this part of the country, 9 out of 10 times low level dense cold usually wins (faster than models forecast) and an upper level warm nose is not going to erode and cool down quicker than modeled. Overall, this was an enjoyable storm to track and really unique - teens and heavy sleet is extremely rare. Also, as far as modeling goes - Euro nailed the upper levels way in advance but was really poor with surface temps as the event got closer; GFS was almost the opposite. Both models have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. Now onto the next one......


I talked to an NWS forecaster one time about forecasting wintry weather in the South. He said he had worked in several different areas in the country and trying to forecast wintry precipitation (types and amounts) in the South was the toughest job he experienced.


Oh I don't doubt that. It got to the point with Facebook I just stopped reading comments because everyone and their grandma had something to say about the fact we didn't get 2 feet of snow

We don't have that problem in any other season. It's definitely the worst part of winter threats here to me especially one like this that was hyped up as the coming apocalypse all week
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5156 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:30 am

Sun shining bright for a few hours, looks like clouds come back in later, hopefully with that last batch of snow if we are lucky.
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cstrunk
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5157 Postby cstrunk » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:38 am

rwfromkansas wrote:So some rules we seem to have:
1) Low-level cold air wins
2) Upper warmth is hard to erode
3) The back tends to come through faster than expected


4) Modeled QPF is likely way too high.

I haven't ventured outside yet but it looks like in Longview we ended with less than 0.1" freezing rain and 1.5"-2" sleet. I think we had 0.1" or 0.2" of rain Friday. The NWS Longview reporting station shows 1.05" of rain equivalent.

That's about half what was modeled all week by global models and hi-res models. And I'm only looking at local observations but that sounds like a common theme from Oklahoma through Texas.
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snownado
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5158 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:38 am

GeauxTigers wrote:Sun is actually coming out here in Tioga (south Grayson county). Was not expecting to see sun so early today. Weather channel app shows cloudy all day. Are we expected to see sun all day today? Will that start the melting even though we are at 10 degrees here?


Dry slotting.

Wrap around moisture & clouds will move back in.
Last edited by snownado on Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5159 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:39 am

Temp still falling. 26.8 imby
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5160 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:40 am

The snow end was definitely disappointing, but overall plenty of sleet here. Think Im good on sleet for the next decade. Slippery and skate-able! Now lets see how low temps will go, singles?
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