Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/2013399026792624234

[Jag95]

12z Canadian showing a very active pattern with a 3rd system after next weekends system https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260119/7129a1afb795780eb29c6865e39804ad.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260119/8a39c754ab3789ec129a9ba5923fa2cd.jpg

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I know it's lala land, but this does seem to have some level of support in some of the other models in varying degrees.

[cycloneye]

CPC with the key messages.

[cycloneye]

@MatthewCappucci
ICE STORM: If you live in the South, now is the time to begin preparing for a very serious ice storm!

It may bring extended disruption. All three of our main weather models continue to coat much of Texas and the South with hazardous and locally crippling ice totals.

WHAT WE KNOW:
– This is a Friday through Sunday event. Lots of us will not be going ANYWHERE this weekend. If you're in the ice zone, it's a good idea to be stocked up on groceries and non-perishables by Wednesday.
– In the ice zone, maximum ice accretions on the order of 0.5 to 1 inches will be possible. It's too early to determine who gets the jackpot, but ice totals like that are very impactful. Power lines will be yanked down by the weight of the ice, leading to extended power outages. Tree limbs will snap and be weighed down.
– An influx of frigid temperatures accompanying the ice storm will increase vulnerability where power outages occur. Please call elderly loved ones/relatives by Thursday morning to ensure they have a plan to remain warm, safe and, if need be, supervised.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW:
– Where the snow/ice and ice/rain lines set up. Until we know the exact position of the cold front, we can't determine who gets what type of precipitation.
– Will Sunday be impacted? We know Friday into Saturday will be very rough. But will a continued overlap of cold air and moisture lead to ongoing issues Sunday?
– Who gets the maximum amount of ice? TBD.

There will be a LOT of forecast adjustments in the days ahead. It's still too early to offer specifics. PLEASE take this seriously though. This system has the potential to be a very, very high-impact one that could grind travel to a halt for days.

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2013591589487288726

[DorkyMcDorkface]

CPC with the key messages.

https://i.imgur.com/9q8aJbe.jpeg

It's been a decade since the DC-BAL metro has seen an MECS/KU crusher, hoping the models continue to stay consistent and we finally score with this one
(Yes I'm aware this is a thread for the Deep South but I thought I'd express my excitement)

[cycloneye]

Snow cutoff will be in Deep South, in other words, you will get ice.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2013612225467162982

[cycloneye]

Look at the totals from 06z GFS of Ice for many in Deep South.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like this system could shut down GA/SC/NC with that much ice and the cold to follow will allow it all to linger.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2013624820873777642

[Jag95]

Well that was an interesting GFS run. It brought the snow line into South AL/MS. Not to the coast, but not that far. Need to watch for a trend or if this is a one-off.

Actually, it did reach the coast over around Panama City.

[Ivanhater]

Well that was an interesting GFS run. It brought the snow line into South AL/MS. Not to the coast, but not that far. Need to watch for a trend or if this is a one-off.

Actually, it did reach the coast over around Panama City.

The models are kicking out the energy coming out of the Southwest later leading to a prolonged event. Definitely keeping an eye on that.

[Jag95]

Well that was an interesting GFS run. It brought the snow line into South AL/MS. Not to the coast, but not that far. Need to watch for a trend or if this is a one-off.

Actually, it did reach the coast over around Panama City.

The models are kicking out the energy coming out of the Southwest later leading to a prolonged event. Definitely keeping an eye on that.

Looks like the heavier snowfall band was also suppressed from TN into Northern AL/MS/GA also. Could be a stronger ridge being detected.

[MississippiWx]

Well that was an interesting GFS run. It brought the snow line into South AL/MS. Not to the coast, but not that far. Need to watch for a trend or if this is a one-off.

Actually, it did reach the coast over around Panama City.

As of now, looks like mostly a cold rain for us here in Southeast MS, South Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Models are depicting a low coming out of the Gulf into South MS/Lower Alabama which fights back the cold air advection. There might be a brief change over to some wintry precipitation on the backside of this. Models are surprisingly consistent with this low placement which gives me more confidence. The fly in the ointment is if the upper low hangs back like the GFS shows and the cold is finally able to push further south and east.

[Ivanhater]

Well that was an interesting GFS run. It brought the snow line into South AL/MS. Not to the coast, but not that far. Need to watch for a trend or if this is a one-off.

Actually, it did reach the coast over around Panama City.

As of now, looks like mostly a cold rain for us here in Southeast MS, South Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Models are depicting a low coming out of the Gulf into South MS/Lower Alabama which fights back the cold air advection. There might be a brief change over to some wintry precipitation on the backside of this. Models are surprisingly consistent with this low placement which gives me more confidence. The fly in the ointment is if the upper low hangs back like the GFS shows and the cold is finally able to push further south and east.

Yep. The models are much less progressive ejecting the system out with the energy hanging back in the southwest

[Jag95]

The 18Z NAM shows the front crossing into the Gulf at 75 hrs while the previous run still had it north of the coast at 84. Wobble watching here lol, but that's an 11F temp difference. The NAM is also way faster with the frontal passage than the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

looks like the high is stronger on the NAM this run.

[Ivanhater]

This looks like a monster high coming down. Makes you wonder if the wintry precip line comes further south

[Jag95]

The GFS shows the 2M freeze line 50 miles to my NW for 42 hours straight with a wedge of warmer air extending from the Gulf to around Montgomery and then dropping back down into southern GA. With a massive arctic ridge to the north. I suppose the Apps could cause that but, weird. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Still 3 days to go to see what this does.

[Powellrm]

The GFS shows the 2M freeze line 50 miles to my NW for 42 hours straight with a wedge of warmer air extending from the Gulf to around Montgomery and then dropping back down into southern GA. With a massive arctic ridge to the north. I suppose the Apps could cause that but, weird. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Still 3 days to go to see what this does.

It’s still a day or so away from having more clarity, but I’m a little surprised on the spread between the GFS and Euro as of Tuesday evening. Very different solutions and timing. Very different outcomes regarding totals, but more importantly the line of freezing rain/ice. Some of the ice totals have been jaw dropping.

I’m in central NC and the only thing I hear people talking about is “we may get a foot or so of snow!” Which is pretty disconcerting considering the potential for incredible ice totals. It’s frustrating that people just share wild outlier precipitation totals online and don’t understand the ice/sleet/freezing rain inclusion.

[Ivanhater]

The 00z Gfs showing that 3rd system the Canadian was hinting at with heavy snow along the Gulf coast late next week