Texas Winter 2025-2026

[bubba hotep]

La Nina winters are usually tough for Texas b/c of the tendency for everything to be positively tilted. We typically see winter weather during La Nina winters associated with a big cold outbreak. This weekend and next weekend have seasonal cold air that could have produced with an active storm track. Then, the weekend after appears to have another seasonal cold front, and some EPS members show an associated storm.

[Stratton23]

Just for fun purposes lol but the GFS has a 1056 MB high coming out of canada at the end of its run, i wish

[Cpv17]

Just give me some rain. Winter weather would just be icing on the cake.

[Gotwood]

This thread will make it to 100 pages just because of hopes and dreams haha.

In all seriousness February is always our month I won’t lose hope until then.

[Ntxw]

Today might mark the unofficial death of the texas 2025-2026 winter thread lol

Been a few years but I don't recall Winter 2020-2021 being all that cold until suddenly it was. I don't want it that cold, nor was the freezing mist and drizzle an acceptable substitute for snow. That said, Euro weeklies look normal to above normal after this week. But until El Nino starts to build I'll be alert to low precip but very cold weather later this winter.

2020-2021 and 2024-2025 were similar in some ways. The 'El Ninos' before them (they both are first year Ninas btw) did not behave like your traditional Nino (2019 and 2023). And both feature odd +PNA/-EPO with active storm tracks along the STJ throughout winter...in a Nina.. and behaved somewhat more of a Nino in some aspects (perhaps delayed by not denied +ENSO?). 2020-2021 had threats of snow from Oklahoma and central Texas Dec and Jan and last year January did also. They showed their hands early with similar features.

[Stratton23]

GFS is try to create a link between the greenland block and the alaskan ridge in the medium range, ridhe bridge over the top pattern, interesting

[Golfisnoteasy75]

GFS is try to create a link between the greenland block and the alaskan ridge in the medium range, ridhe bridge over the top pattern, interesting

We will see if the mjo makes a difference when it gets to phase 7, and hopefully it can go the extra mile through 8,1 and 2. Here's hoping at least

[Stratton23]

lol wtf, the euro and the GFS want to bring the entire lobe of the PV over to north america in late january, thats crazy, pretty unlikely to happen, but if you want something to talk about in a boring, stagnant pattern we are in, that would definitely spark some discussion lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

lol wtf, the euro and the GFS want to bring the entire lobe of the PV over to north america in late january, thats crazy, pretty unlikely to happen, but if you want something to talk about in a boring, stagnant pattern we are in, that would definitely spark some discussion lol

Interesting indeed. I feel like when you have a trough dig really far into the SE and bomb out towards Nova Scotia, it has a high chance of creating blocking near Greenland. We are also approaching a situation where we should have a -EPO, so voila, if you have both of those going on, the PV has to go somewhere!

[txtwister78]

Our "problem" this winter among a few other factors has been the +PNA influence. We've had plenty of cold in the high latitudes to work with courtesy of the PV but too much ridging out west has shoved much of it into the eastern US.

Need to get that to a neutral or slightly negative territory. Some signs that may change late month but we've seen that movie before only for that to change in the other direction.

[Stratton23]

Yeah that + PNA has been a killer, hopefully we get some changes, but the GFS and Euro continue to show a very favorable PV setup for north america for late January. Asia gets torched on these runs as both models have a large stretch or nearly the whole lobe at to 10 MB level is on our side of the planet, you get a more cooperative PNA, and it could be rather interesting

[Brent]

The Euro appears to have a little snow at least in Oklahoma and North Texas on Saturday

Also there is some noise at the very end of the month already but it's so far out

[Ntxw]

To add the Alaska region hasn't really changed yet but it's supposed to change by mid-month which is in a couple of days roughly around the 15th so let's hope that it does happen. Transition periods can be tough for models so I wouldn't put too much money beyond a few days. Still nothing bitter cold in our horizon but I wouldn't cancel winter either. MJO is also going to be in 6 for another 7 to 8 days.

[Wthrfan]

To add to the winter gloom...In the last 28 days, OKC has as many days with highs above 70 than freezing lows. I have lived here for 25 years and don't recall a winter with this kind of sustained warmth. Larry Cosgrove still believes there will be some changes the last week of January heading into February though! Crossing my fingers!

[Brent]

To add to the winter gloom...In the last 28 days, OKC has as many days with highs above 70 than freezing lows. I have lived here for 25 years and don't recall a winter with this kind of sustained warmth. Larry Cosgrove still believes there will be some changes the last week of January heading into February though! Crossing my fingers!

Oh I have no doubt the last month has blown away any record anyone can find here... It's been beyond ridiculous. I really am banking on the end of the month and February to do something and yes I've seen a lot of people talking about it already. To go a week straight without a freeze in January here I couldn't even find that in the hottest January on record. I think it's unprecedented

I just can't imagine nothing happening the rest of the winter up here... But then again I never imagined it would be 87 2 days after Christmas either... Or pretty much how sustained it's been since so I mean we're already in uncharted waters at this point. I mean we broke the all time record for December by SEVEN degrees!

[Wthrfan]

To add to the winter gloom...In the last 28 days, OKC has as many days with highs above 70 than freezing lows. I have lived here for 25 years and don't recall a winter with this kind of sustained warmth. Larry Cosgrove still believes there will be some changes the last week of January heading into February though! Crossing my fingers!

Oh I have no doubt the last month has blown away any record anyone can find here... It's been beyond ridiculous. I really am banking on the end of the month and February to do something and yes I've seen a lot of people talking about it already. To go a week straight without a freeze in January here I couldn't even find that in the hottest January on record. I think it's unprecedented

I just can't imagine nothing happening the rest of the winter up here... But then again I never imagined it would be 87 2 days after Christmas either... Or pretty much how sustained it's been since so I mean we're already in uncharted waters at this point. I mean we broke the all time record for December by SEVEN degrees!

I know, crazy right? Welp, at least we are a little better off than our friends in Texas. All my family is in Dallas and Austin and they are beyond tired of this!

[Brent]

To add to the winter gloom...In the last 28 days, OKC has as many days with highs above 70 than freezing lows. I have lived here for 25 years and don't recall a winter with this kind of sustained warmth. Larry Cosgrove still believes there will be some changes the last week of January heading into February though! Crossing my fingers!

Oh I have no doubt the last month has blown away any record anyone can find here... It's been beyond ridiculous. I really am banking on the end of the month and February to do something and yes I've seen a lot of people talking about it already. To go a week straight without a freeze in January here I couldn't even find that in the hottest January on record. I think it's unprecedented

I just can't imagine nothing happening the rest of the winter up here... But then again I never imagined it would be 87 2 days after Christmas either... Or pretty much how sustained it's been since so I mean we're already in uncharted waters at this point. I mean we broke the all time record for December by SEVEN degrees!

I know, crazy right? Welp, at least we are a little better off than our friends in Texas. All my family is in Dallas and Austin and they are beyond tired of this!

Yeah technically I did see 5 minutes of flakes here the bar is very low this year

[wxman57]

What!!!???? Recent runs of the GFS have DROPPED its forecast of a winter storm across Texas next weekend in favor of mild, dry weather as had been predicted by the ECMWF? I'm in complete shock!

[orangeblood]

To add the Alaska region hasn't really changed yet but it's supposed to change by mid-month which is in a couple of days roughly around the 15th so let's hope that it does happen. Transition periods can be tough for models so I wouldn't put too much money beyond a few days. Still nothing bitter cold in our horizon but I wouldn't cancel winter either. MJO is also going to be in 6 for another 7 to 8 days.

Regardless of temp pattern, the most concerning part to me is how dry of global pattern this is becoming for the US country wide. Major issues for the country if this drags out too long! Hopefully, this WWB in the pacific is the cattle prod we need get us out of this

[Stratton23]

Ive been in Texas for 22 of my 25 years, and this is quite possibly the most miserable, boring winter ive ever experienced, heck i feel for those like Brent who havent seen much action, i mean granted we dont see that wintry stuff down here often, but this winter has been about as bad as watching the live action the last airbender movie, hopefully late january something changes, because this just sucks, cant sugar coat it at all