2026 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Last season this basin was very active with 18/10/3 and it occured without having El Niño. The 2026 season will have positive ENSO, but the unknown is how strong El Niño may be by the summer and fall. It looks like the season will have plenty of activity regardless if ENSO is between warm Neutral and El Niño. Below is the list of names and there are some familiar and well remembered.

Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odalys
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

[Yellow Evan]

There have been some changes in the Pacific SST configuration. We’ve seen some erosion in the -ENSO base state since the NHEM monsoon system shut down, with MJO largely avoiding the Indian Ocean and we’ve also seen the WPAC warm pool expand eastward. The subtropics and extratropics have also taken on a SST configuration of an EOF2 Victoria Mode typically seen in the winter before El Niño onset, with a +PMM becoming quite distinct in recent weeks. This does remind me a bit of the North Pacific evolution during 2013-14 winter given this and the incoming mid latitude pattern for January but it’s hard to say anything definitive at this stage other than +ENSO of some flavor is likely and in turn at least an average Pacific tropics.