Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Lagreeneyes03]

Seems so strange to me that with such a heat wave coming, nary a rain/severe threat, but I guess since there's no big temp gradient; cold/hot line not much to see.

6Z Euro suggests a weak boundary is in Oklahoma at 6 days, not as obvious on GFS. Moisture is there but almost summer time high heights would be a big negative for storms.

Wild to think about a cap in December. But then again, 10 years ago was tragic.

[Stratton23]

Baby steps on ensembles but things are starting to trend in the right direction, north pacific blocking is trending closer to Alaska, ensembles starting to finally shift the west coast trough east somewhat, - AO and - NAO are becoming established on ensembles, PNA weakens to more weak negative- neutral, ive been preaching a pattern change around or just before new years on here for the past several days, looks like my idea will be put to the test, hopefully im right

[rwfromkansas]

Interesting video on 1977 and 1978 winters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM&t=2s

I do hope we start to see some change. Some hopeful signs, it just seems to move slowly once a pattern is stuck.

[wxman22]

FYI Starting today the AI GFS is now freely available to the public. It has a nice front on New Years. I’m sure it will change in the next run lol
Link Below


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=18

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Baby steps on ensembles but things are starting to trend in the right direction, north pacific blocking is trending closer to Alaska, ensembles starting to finally shift the west coast trough east somewhat, - AO and - NAO are becoming established on ensembles, PNA weakens to more weak negative- neutral, ive been preaching a pattern change around or just before new years on here for the past several days, looks like my idea will be put to the test, hopefully im right

Definitely looks warm around Christmas. Been looking that way for a while now. Aleutian ridge is what's hurting us currently. A shift either west or east would do wonders for our area imo.

[gpsnowman]

This sucks. Happy shorts Saturday. Happy shorts Christmas week.

[Brent]

Seems so strange to me that with such a heat wave coming, nary a rain/severe threat, but I guess since there's no big temp gradient; cold/hot line not much to see.

6Z Euro suggests a weak boundary is in Oklahoma at 6 days, not as obvious on GFS. Moisture is there but almost summer time high heights would be a big negative for storms.

Wild to think about a cap in December. But then again, 10 years ago was tragic.

December 2021 is the one I remember too. Killer tornadoes in Arkansas and Kentucky and not a drop of rain here. It literally blew up an hour past us

That's also the last year we had a really warm Christmas

And of course the pattern flipped in January and it snowed for 48 hours we can only hope

[Stratton23]

CMC looks interesting in west texas around the 29th with a shortwave trough moving in and a flattened se ridge

[Quixotic]

Interesting video on 1977 and 1978 winters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM&t=2s

I do hope we start to see some change. Some hopeful signs, it just seems to move slowly once a pattern is stuck.

Thanks for that. I was old enough to remember those winters but too young to remember the pattern. I recall a National Geographic story about the two winters and it mentioned that the North Pacific ridge and Aleutian low was the cause so I’ve always assumed it. Much like 2013-14 and 14-15. My dad got stuck in Buffalo for weeks but I’m not sure which winter it was. My bet is 76-77. He couldn’t even leave the hotel. That video confirms my thinking. As a 7-8 year old, 77-78 in particular stood out. It seemed like it snowed every day for two months. DFW listed 17” but I’m quite sure other areas were much higher. My BIL built a two story igloo in the front yard.