Texas Winter 2025-2026

Winter Weather Discussion

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wxman22
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#841 Postby wxman22 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 8:10 am

Currently 22F here with a windchill of 10F. We're now officially at 12 freezes for the season so far. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#842 Postby Wthrfan » Sun Dec 14, 2025 8:26 am

gpsnowman wrote:If y'all remember, most years before an arctic blast I will post a Troy Dungan weather report from January 1985. You'll see just how cold it was and the huge difference in the way weather was forecasted and presented. If I post it again this season something good is about to happen.


I grew up in Dallas and watched Troy and Harold Taft every night. The reporting and technology (or lack thereof) was markedly different. Harold would still would hand draw his weather maps!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#843 Postby TomballEd » Sun Dec 14, 2025 8:46 am

Wthrfan wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:If y'all remember, most years before an arctic blast I will post a Troy Dungan weather report from January 1985. You'll see just how cold it was and the huge difference in the way weather was forecasted and presented. If I post it again this season something good is about to happen.


I grew up in Dallas and watched Troy and Harold Taft every night. The reporting and technology (or lack thereof) was markedly different. Harold would still would hand draw his weather maps!


My Dad knew Harold Taft from American Airlines back in the day of Love Field being the big airport.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#844 Postby Golfisnoteasy75 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 9:44 am

Stratton23 wrote:Euro also isnt keeping the SE ridge of death permanently locked in for weeks lol, of course this all means nothing if the ensembles dont make any changes, but i do think there were some positive changes in the overnight global mode guidance, mainly for potentially better chances at rain but also a better blocking pattern in the pacific ( - EPO ), beyond christmas

Stratton, I know you don't like hot weather. When you get older, you can't tolerate the cold as much as you used to when you was younger. LC Is trying to be optimistic in his weather america newsletter. I hope he is correct. He is a smart guy
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#845 Postby Wthrfan » Sun Dec 14, 2025 10:32 am

Golfisnoteasy75 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Euro also isnt keeping the SE ridge of death permanently locked in for weeks lol, of course this all means nothing if the ensembles dont make any changes, but i do think there were some positive changes in the overnight global mode guidance, mainly for potentially better chances at rain but also a better blocking pattern in the pacific ( - EPO ), beyond christmas

Stratton, I know you don't like hot weather. When you get older, you can't tolerate the cold as much as you used to when you was younger. LC Is trying to be optimistic in his weather america newsletter. I hope he is correct. He is a smart guy


I call LC the Oracle! I started reading his weekly weather outlooks a few years back and he has been right far more than anyone else I've followed. He has some thinly veiled disdain for the internet/twitter weather types! In his most recent blog, he said don't make assumptions based on the MJO predictions. There might be some cold between Christmas and New Years and then again a week or so after. He believes there will be a "thaw" into mid-January but predicts things will turn cold around the last 1/3 of January lasting possibly through February. We are just going to have to be patient it appears.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#846 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 11:44 am

No question where the chill is being felt across the state this morning. Stuck in the low 50's here but manageable as we avoid the brunt of the arctic air to our NE.

High res models have even backed off on the threat of a freeze locally within the metro.

Big warmup mid week and beyond.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#847 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 11:50 am

Just as i suspected, ensembles are starten to weaken the - PNA and slowly trend back towards neutral, their was never much evidence this pattern was going to stick around long despite the total apocalyptic meltdown on X by weather weenies, yet again models are too aggressive with the Se Ridge in the long range, real shocker, it will be warm on christmas, but this is looking more like a transition pattern than a permanent one, starting to look for big changes around the turn of the new year
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#848 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 1:16 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Just as i suspected, ensembles are starten to weaken the - PNA and slowly trend back towards neutral, their was never much evidence this pattern was going to stick around long despite the total apocalyptic meltdown on X by weather weenies, yet again models are too aggressive with the Se Ridge in the long range, real shocker, it will be warm on christmas, but this is looking more like a transition pattern than a permanent one, starting to look for big changes around the turn of the new year
how warm will it be?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#849 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Dec 14, 2025 1:20 pm

Like mid 70’s to near 80 on christmas, but i do not thing this is a pattern that stays locked in for weeks on end, im targeting new years for changes to be underway, and im pretty confident in this
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#850 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 14, 2025 4:12 pm

I fell to 15°F this morning, brrrrrr
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#851 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Dec 14, 2025 5:36 pm

I won't be surprised to see some teens across NE TX tomorrow morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#852 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 14, 2025 8:04 pm

We didn't get above freezing and apparently there's been a bunch of power outages :eek: :double:

Great start to winter :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#853 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 15, 2025 7:39 am

17 is the lowest I see across NE TX. Mainly low 20s rural and mid 20s in town.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#854 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 15, 2025 7:47 am

19 degrees with still talk of record highs for Christmas(which is mid 70s here). The EPS has a summer like ridge almost then. I guess be glad its not July or August. Looks very warm almost to January so far
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#855 Postby cstrunk » Mon Dec 15, 2025 9:05 am

25F here in Longview this morning.

Trees that still have leaves have finally been turning their brilliant red/orange colors over the last week or two... or at least that I've noticed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#856 Postby wxman22 » Mon Dec 15, 2025 9:50 am

Had a low of 19F here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#857 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 15, 2025 10:01 am

So of the two warmest Christmas here on record one had 14 inches of snow after one had 0.2 inches of snow....

I really hope it's not the latter :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#858 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Dec 15, 2025 11:01 am

It was 31F at my house in Cypress(W Houston).
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#859 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 15, 2025 1:14 pm

Looks like ensembles show the Scandinavian ridge retrograding back into greenland, - NAO is showing up on all guidance, that could be important late december and especially going into january, also seeing signs of a strong westerly wind burst around new years which should help to reinforce north pacific blocking, wont be surprised to see a - EPO ridge show up again in early january, patience is a virtue, but changes will come, its not all doom and gloom just because christmas is warm
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#860 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Dec 15, 2025 1:37 pm

Wow is that mid 80's I see showing up now on the Euro and ICON all the way up into parts of West Texas and the Lubbock region stretching into the Wichita Falls area for Saturday? Torchmas anyone?

Now granted that level of warm weather shouldn't last long up there but nonetheless that may break some one day records if ends up verifying.
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