Ntxw wrote:It is 300 hours, just for novelty this is a 500mb pattern you look for when calling for warmth. All the troughs/ridges are complete opposite of what they need to be. Not saying 300hr map will pan out that way, we've seen 500mb maps for cold, just educational the other way as well.
https://i.imgur.com/GCg4K64.png
I posted earlier this morning the ensemble pattern at 15 days just needs to move that ridge a bit into Alaska and the trough a little bit to the East and then air forecast by the Euro to be about 20F below normal in the Yukon when the Yukon is normally already super cold is enough to start the really cold air heading towards Texas. Once moving, it flows to the Gulf on density alone while mid level flow is still off the Pacific. I also mentioned sneaky cold. If Houston flirts with a freeze it means dewpoints below freezing, probably not enough below winter precip is a threat down here but Dallas with dewpoints close to 20F, it can happen. I remember, both Bedford (DFW area) and Austin, days near 50F followed a day later by snow or ice without an airmass change. Clouds and evaporative cooling works miracles. Just missing the moisture.
I noted ensemble temps suggested a front is moving around somewhere near the Red River, clear air afternoon temps may seem too warm for a white/icy Christmas week miracle but dewpoints with even the backwash of an Arctic airmass hitting further E with a subtle, not yet detectable disturbance, could produce winter precip not too far N of the front. One thing I'm thinking now, low res ops and ensembles over 10 days out, besides maybe not seeing a good disturbance might also not get the shallow cold air far enough south. We're doing Christmas here but my mind isn't blown by a DFW Christmas miracle now that I think about it.
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