Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

[bubba hotep]

Unfortunately, this is an ENSO transition winter, and the last few have been warm and dry. We might not see any relief until late spring or early summer, when the pattern should shift to wetter conditions. However, not all hope is lost b/c we should still be good for one big Nina cold blast at some point.

[Brent]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

Yeah I've been noticing the same thing too.... Everyone acting like it's never been warm on Christmas before or that we never have winter anymore and sometimes it's very hard to scroll on by but it's like you'll never convince them otherwise

And it's funny because there's a lot of really snowy years here since 2000 ironically. More than a lot of other decades. 6 with over 15 inches already

[Ntxw]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

It's only Dec 13, thank goodness. By Christmas the New Year's pattern may look completely different. I'd say take it block by block, first half December was decent, didn't cash in on wintry precip plenty of dry below normal. Second half looks mild, largely dry. We'll see what the New Year pattern looks like in a week or so.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

Yeah I've been noticing the same thing too.... Everyone acting like it's never been warm on Christmas before or that we never have winter anymore and sometimes it's very hard to scroll on by but it's like you'll never convince them otherwise

And it's funny because there's a lot of really snowy years here since 2000 ironically. More than a lot of other decades. 6 with over 15 inches already

X is an absolute cesspool of bad people. I can’t tell you the amount of POS humans I’ve seen on that app. I love using it, but man, the amount of bad people on there is crazy.

[wxman22]

The HRRR has it getting down to 22F both tonight and tomorrow night here.Expecting freeze warnings to go up for those in the southern areas of the state. As the first freeze of the season looks to occur tomorrow for portions of SE/SC Texas. Not bad for a glancing blow.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

Yeah I've been noticing the same thing too.... Everyone acting like it's never been warm on Christmas before or that we never have winter anymore and sometimes it's very hard to scroll on by but it's like you'll never convince them otherwise

And it's funny because there's a lot of really snowy years here since 2000 ironically. More than a lot of other decades. 6 with over 15 inches already

For 2000-2013 were very good in Decembers with some memorable snow/ice events. Since 2013, Decembers have largely been devoid (outside of the panhandle and far W Texas/W Oklahoma) of wintry precip. So accustomed, but the hope was to be different. 2014-2025 really has seen one true cold blast in December and that was 2022. So we are on track per usual recent history.

[Cpv17]

The HRRR has it getting down to 22F both tonight and tomorrow night here.Expecting freeze warnings to go up for those in the southern areas of the state. As the first freeze of the season looks to occur tomorrow for portions of SE/SC Texas. Not bad for a glancing blow.

https://i.ibb.co/MDDwMnPW/iendex.png

https://i.ibb.co/0Rjhtsbf/irdex.png

Yep, freeze watches are up for a good part of SE TX already.

[Stratton23]

Honestly i dont care how cold we get down the line, id just love a repeat of january 2024, that was an amazing event, and it was mostly snow which means it was more fun than serious for most folks with not much in the way of power outages, we got half a foot of snow in katy and we have these small hills at a park by our house, i literally used a cardboard box to go sliding down the hill hahaha

[Cpv17]

Honestly i dont care how cold we get down the line, id just love a repeat of january 2024, that was an amazing event, and it was mostly snow which means it was more fun than serious for most folks with not much in the way of power outages, we got half a foot of snow in katy and we have these small hills at a park by our house, i literally used a cardboard box to go sliding down the hill hahaha

I haven’t seen snow since 2017 here in Wharton County. We didn’t get anything from that event last year over here and Feb 2021 all we got was ice. It’s been 8 years since I’ve seen snow.

[rwfromkansas]

Hopefully something changes down the road, big meltdown from everyone on X about this warm pattern, i might need to take a break, seeing nothing interesting in the models is killing my soul lol

I take comfort in everybody suffering with us lol.

But it is less exciting when nothing changes. That’s why the summer thread doesn’t have much action.

[gpsnowman]

Unfortunately, this is an ENSO transition winter, and the last few have been warm and dry. We might not see any relief until late spring or early summer, when the pattern should shift to wetter conditions. However, not all hope is lost b/c we should still be good for one big Nina cold blast at some point.

Very true. A big blast in an otherwise warm winter. JB mentions 84-85 similarities. Warm December, cold rest of winter. Sign me up if that's the case. Two big blasts in 1985 in Texas. One in January that is discussed frequently on here, and another in February. Both with snow days I believe.

[Stratton23]

what happened in 85? Of course i definitely wasnt around for that winter lol

[gpsnowman]

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/january1985cold
Brutal cold front that year. It was the year the Reagan Inauguration was held inside due to frigid temps. Another cold front came to the area later in January and early February though not intense IIRC. I was only 10 years old but that winter was the one that fueled my love of winter weather.

[gpsnowman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Nort ... _cold_wave
Numerous wright-ups on this but here is another.

[gpsnowman]

If y'all remember, most years before an arctic blast I will post a Troy Dungan weather report from January 1985. You'll see just how cold it was and the huge difference in the way weather was forecasted and presented. If I post it again this season something good is about to happen.

[Ntxw]

It is 300 hours, just for novelty this is a 500mb pattern you look for when calling for warmth. All the troughs/ridges are complete opposite of what they need to be. Not saying 300hr map will pan out that way, we've seen 500mb maps for cold, just educational the other way as well.

[Stratton23]

Seems like the EPS has been shifting west with the ridge the last couple of runs, rught over texas, yuck, hopefully we see things trend toward a more suppressed ridge

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It is 300 hours, just for novelty this is a 500mb pattern you look for when calling for warmth. All the troughs/ridges are complete opposite of what they need to be. Not saying 300hr map will pan out that way, we've seen 500mb maps for cold, just educational the other way as well.

https://i.imgur.com/GCg4K64.png

This may be a stupid question. Do we have a ways to go to perhaps get out of this pattern? Like you said, thankfully it's still mid December

[TomballEd]

Haven't been to the NWS site but a Freeze Watch somewhere near me just popped up.