Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

DFW has not had a below normal December in 12 years. 2013. Not one, and the new averages went up in 2021, which nudged the baseline up and we couldn't even do that.

Houston is running 6.2F below normal this December. You're welcome to take some of our cold up there.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx

Oh, and currently, DFW is running 4.9F below normal for the first 10 days of December:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=fwd

A few days with lows in the 50s (highs 70s) can wipe it out quickly, seen it before. A lot will depend on what happens the last week of December if we are to hold on to below normal.

[rwfromkansas]

Hoping for some signs of models changing as we get closer to Christmas. Honestly as much as I want a snowy Christmas I also have to drive to Kansas right after, and trust me, I have had a few scary calls, so I really don't want to risk it anymore. One trip was so bad it took two hours to go 30 miles it was snowing so hard, and that's with plows on the interstate. It was insane. Never doing that again as pretty as it was. But, I really hope we have a quick shift the 28th or so....

[Gotwood]

What’s the latest on the SSW? Did it ever actually occur?

[Stratton23]

No, i havent heard anything about that happening, but even if it did it doesn’t guarantee it effects NA or at least our part of the US

[Sambucol2024]

I am not a meteorologist, and have never studied weather in college. I am no expert. In my opinion, a Christmas forecast this far out as in 14 days is a long way away for accuracy to be 100%. It won't be a surprise if the forecast changes.

[rwfromkansas]

Yesterday in 2007 there was a huge ice storm in Kansas and I think OK as well. I remember that well. Crazy how times change.

[TomballEd]

Now I'm seeing posts about severe weather for Christmas

Someone must be believing one of the runs of the GFS to think there will be severe weather for Christmas. Compare the GFS and EC 500 mb flow for the evening of the 25th. GFS has a trof approaching TX (severe weather producer), while the EC has a ridge planted right over Texas (no significant weather). Euro has been quite consistent in its forecasts.

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025121106&fh=366

ECMWF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025121100&fh=360

If one thinks of different runs of an op model at different times, when initial conditions should not have changed much, they function as an ensemble. I belief the CFS ensemble used multiple model runs. Consistent Euro favors the Euro. If it isn't going to snow Christmas week, 60's or 70s are fine with me. I will stop for menudo after Mass on cold days but I prefer being comfortable going and coming. I don't think the restaurant we stop at is even open on Christmas. Euro lows above 60F sounds fine to me.

[Stratton23]

Man i just hope we get a severe arctic outbreak or two later down the road, give me some 20’s and a couple of snow days compared to the depression showing up for christmas

[Ntxw]

580dm+ upper ridge is pretty warm for December. There will probably be a couple of fronts prior to Christmas week but it will get very warm to begin the holiday week.

If you like chill for the holiday period then you're rooting against the Euro which has a big sprawling upper ridge, summer like. My anecdotal feel for a 'torch' is 3+ days of lows in the 50s (average highs are in the 50s) and highs in the 70s.

[TomballEd]

Man i just hope we get a severe arctic outbreak or two later down the road, give me some 20’s and a couple of snow days compared to the depression showing up for christmas

I gave up on citrus. My wife's late uncle near Hobby airport had grapefruit trees, a cold sensitive citrus, they always fruited as my lemons and limes died. 2021 killed my hybrid kumquat-mandarin. The below 20F freezes makes my larger palms look dead for several months and has killed some of the seedlings. (Fan palms breed like rabbits. My ~25 foot palm came from Walmart in the back seat of my car, 3 feet tops, $5 because the sun had bleached the bar code, in 2021. It breeds new palms, most of which I have to murder, But one of my earlier transplants from after the 2021 freeze is pushing 3 feet already)

[Stratton23]

TomballEd that’s probably why ill never get into gardening, as much as i enjoy the cold weather, all it takes is one big cold snap and most of those plants you just bought go bye bye, unless its a non- tropical plant which probably will have a better time surviving,

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's the best way to look at a forecast, if it's more than 72 hours out it's BS, plain and simple. What a model shows today may be vastly different 24 hrs later. I prefer to just focus on what Winter is in NTX, and that's Jan-Feb and some times the first half of March.

I'm just looking forward to Sunday and it's forecast high of 46, nothing better than Football, a Fireplace, and Hot Wings on game day. Maybe we can get a snow game on TV.

[wxman22]

[Ntxw]

Here's the best way to look at a forecast, if it's more than 72 hours out it's BS, plain and simple. What a model shows today may be vastly different 24 hrs later. I prefer to just focus on what Winter is in NTX, and that's Jan-Feb and some times the first half of March.

I'm just looking forward to Sunday and it's forecast high of 46, nothing better than Football, a Fireplace, and Hot Wings on game day. Maybe we can get a snow game on TV.

I'm normally ok with warmth prior to the winter solstice, after that there needs to be signs of cold and snow! . After Christmas to early January is peak snow retention before sun angle ever so slightly creeps up.

[txtwister78]

Would not he surprised to see some low 80's Christmas week show up across SC TX especially in the LRGV.

 https://x.com/i/status/1999017334707728532

[Brent]

Lol wind chills near zero Sunday morning

Hope everyone soaks it up it might be awhile before we see that again

[Stratton23]

Id rather it be 20 below zero on christmas lol

[txtwister78]

I'll add don't look at the Euro Weeklies if you're searching for a cold January either.

Granted that one has a tendency to change at this range but certainly not a good sign for cold lovers.

[rwfromkansas]

I'll add don't look at the Euro Weeklies if you're searching for a cold January either.

Granted that one has a tendency to change at this range but certainly not a good sign for cold lovers.

I think it performed very poorly. It was predicting an icebox for December.

[txtwister78]

I'll add don't look at the Euro Weeklies if you're searching for a cold January either.

Granted that one has a tendency to change at this range but certainly not a good sign for cold lovers.

I think it performed very poorly. It was predicting an icebox for December.

For Texas? Interesting.

I actually think it hit pretty well on where the core of the cold was centered (upper Midwest into interior NE)