Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

* Breezy trade winds will prevail from today onward; possibly
becoming windy by this weekend.

* A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast from this evening
onwards.

* Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR
throughout the week.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
the islands at times. Afternoon showers forecast today mainly
for interior to SW PR.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Mostly quiet conditions prevailed overnight. Radar imagery showed
isolated showers over the local waters, with a few reaching the
windward sides of the islands. These produced no significant
impacts, and radar-estimated rainfall totals were minimal. Surface
observations indicated somewhat variable winds at 10 to 13 mph or
less with slightly higher occasional gusts. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and into the low 60s, or slightly lower, across
the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

The short-term forecast remains on track. At the surface, high
pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward into the
central Atlantic through the forecast period, tightening the
pressure gradient and promoting a northeasterly flow across our
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected, particularly
today and Wednesday. Aloft, a shortwave trough will cross the
northeastern Caribbean today as a mid-level ridge migrates toward
the Cuba and Bahamas region. Under this pattern, an advective
trade- wind pattern will continue to dominate the short term,
supporting a low to moderate chance of nighttime showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto Rico, and a
slight to moderate chance of afternoon convection over interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico each day. With increasing wind
speeds, showers will move quickly, further limiting rainfall
accumulations and keeping flood risk from none to very low.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no
flood threat. The primary weather impact today and Wednesday will
be the strengthening winds, which will result in breezy
conditions. Unsecured items may be blown around, particularly in
coastal areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast for the long term
period, particularly Saturday onwards as a surface high builds
over the Atlantic. Increasing moisture will maintain PWAT values
at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture will promote showers steered by east-northeast, becoming
more northeasterly as the period progresses, flow to reach
windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of
afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR. Flooding risks
are not forecast during the period. By Friday, the jet streak
will continue moving eastward and away from the area, while the
ridging weakens as a polar trough moves across the central
Atlantic. However, by Saturday and throughout the period, a high-
pressure system will build over the western to central Atlantic,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increasing
winds. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday through Tuesday. 925
mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year. Supporting highs in
generally the 80s, with some coastal/urban areas in the 90s and
higher elevations of PR in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low
to mid 70s, with some urban/coastal areas in the upper 70s and
higher elevations of PR into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conds across all TAF sites with just VCSH across TJSJ/TJBQ &
TIST/TISX in the USVI this morning and thru the rest of the
forecast period. Main aviation concern: NE wind flow will
dominate, becoming breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph or
slightly higher aft 25/13Z. VCSH possible bwn 25/15-21Z across
TJSJ and TJPS. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 25/23Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

A building high-pressure system moving into the central Atlantic
will bring increasing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over
the next few days. Confused seas are forecast as locally choppy wind
waves combine with an incoming northeasterly swell through tomorrow,
Wednesday. Small craft operators should exercise caution; small
craft advisories likely for tomorrow evening. Increasing winds and
building seas are also forecast by Saturday night and into the
weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

The risk of rip currents will remain low until this evening along
all local beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By
this evening, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as for
eastern St. Croix. Coverage of the moderate risk of rip currents
will increase to the northern USVI, Vieques and areas of southern
Puerto Rico as the week continues. By Thursday and Friday, a high
risk of rip currents is possible along north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico. High risk of rip currents are also forecast to start
the next workweek. Always check the beach forecast before heading
out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip
currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

* Up to breezy conditions will continue due to a surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine
conditions for small craft. A small craft advisory will be in
effect later tonight for the local offshore Atlantic.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands at times. Afternoon
showers are forecast today mainly for SW PR.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
exposed beaches of PR, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix; this risk will spread this evening to eastern PR,
southeastern PR, St. John and St. Thomas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

During the overnight hours, showery weather persisted across the
local waters, with a few showers reaching northern and eastern
Puerto Rico and the vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands. These
produced no significant impacts, and radar estimated rainfall totals
were minimal. Surface observations showed winds influenced by land-
breeze fluctuations, generally at 8 to 10 mph or less, with
occasional slightly higher gusts. Minimum temperatures ranged from
the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
and into the low 60s or slightly lower across the mountains and
interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
move eastward into the central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient and supporting a persistent northeasterly flow across the
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected today and
tomorrow, with a slight decrease anticipated by Friday. Aloft, a
shortwave trough will move away today and tonight, allowing weak
ridging to briefly develop before a polar trough moves across the
central Atlantic, altering the upper-level pattern. Precipitable
water values are forecast to remain below normal today (1.20 to 1.30
inches) as mixed patches of dry and slightly more humid air stream
in under the northeasterly flow. Under this pattern, no significant
rain hazards are expected. There is a slight chance of morning
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto
Rico, and a slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers across
southwestern Puerto Rico. With increasing wind speeds, any showers
will move quickly, further limiting rainfall accumulations and
keeping flood risk very low to none.

Tonight, moisture content will increase to near-normal levels
(around 1.5 to 1.6 inches), and with the axis of the upper-level
shortwave trough still present, an uptick in shower activity is
anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A similar pattern of trade-wind showers will persist on Thanksgiving
Day and Friday, with isolated showers overnight and in the morning,
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers across western
municipalities. No significant flooding impacts are expected though.

Model guidance continues to show 925-mb temperatures near the 25th
percentile for November climatology throughout the forecast period,
supporting more pleasant daytime and nighttime temperatures with no
heat risk impacts anticipated.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no flood
threat, fresher temperatures. Strengthening winds will be the
primary weather concern, producing breezy conditions that may cause
unsecured items, especially near coastal areas, to be blown around.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

Generally breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term
period, particularly Saturday to Monday as a surface high builds
over the western to central Atlantic and tightens the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model
guidance suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low pressure system will
move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic promoting a looser
pressure gradient and promote more seasonal wind speeds. PWAT
values will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches
of drier and slightly more humid air providing some variability.
Patches of moisture will promote showers steered by east-
northeast, becoming more northeasterly as the period progresses,
flow to reach windward sectors of the islands at times and promote
a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR.
Model guidance suggests the Wednesday will be the most humid day
with PWAT values at around 1.9 to 1.9 in, but uncertainty remains.
Flooding risks are not forecast during the period but above
mentioned showers can promote brief heavy downpours. 925 mb
temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions will persist along all the TAF sites during the day.
Expect period of VCSH across the USVI and TJSJ this morning. E to NE
wind flow will dominate, becoming breezy with gust up to 20 to 25
mph aft 26/14Z. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 26/21-22Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight. An uptick in shower
activity is anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the USVI sites aft 27/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

A building surface high pressure moving into the central Atlantic
will bring moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the next few
days. A dissipating northeasterly swell will also be present early
today. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from late tonight
through Friday morning for the Atlantic offshore waters due to
locally choppy wind waves. Small Craft should still exercise caution
over other local waters. Increasing winds and building seas are also
forecast by Saturday night and into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix. This evening the moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
to spread towards eastern PR, southeastern PR, St. John and St.
Thomas. By early tomorrow, areas of southern PR will also be under
a moderate risk of rip currents. Up to a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue during the rest of the week with localized
areas possibly under a high risk of rip currents tomorrow night.
Always check the beach forecast before heading out, and avoid
swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

* Happy Thanksgiving! Breezy conditions are anticipated today;
therefore, unsecured items could blow around.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine
conditions for small crafts; Small Craft Advisories are in
effect.

* Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible across most
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Quick moving showers will continue over windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and tonight; afternoon
showers forecast today for southwestern Puerto Rico as well.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight. As observed over the past
few days, showery weather persisted across the local waters, with
some showers reaching northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the
vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Radar estimates indicate
between 0.15 and 0.45 inches of rainfall in these areas since
midnight. Minimum temperatures ranged from the low to mid-70s across
coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and into the mid-60s or
slightly lower across the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto
Rico.

At the surface, a broad high-pressure system over the central
tropical Atlantic will continue to support a moderate to fresh east-
northeast wind flow through the forecast period. Aloft, lingering
influence from a shortwave trough will diminish as it moves away
this morning, allowing mid-level ridging to briefly develop across
the region. A polar trough is then forecast to move across the
western Atlantic tonight, along with its associated frontal
boundary, through the short-term period.

According to the latest guidance, precipitable water values will
fluctuate between 1.30 and 1.65 inches, which is considered below
normal to near average for this time of year. As a result, a
seasonable weather pattern will dominate the forecast, with a few
passing showers across windward areas throughout the day and
isolated to scattered afternoon showers developing across the
southwest quadrant of Puerto Rico today, Thanksgiving Day. Flood
risk remains locally limited, as localized ponding on roads and in
poorly drained areas cannot be ruled out, but in general, no
significant flooding impacts are expected. A similar pattern of
trade-wind showers will persist throughout the period, with isolated
showers overnight and in the morning across windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by
isolated to scattered afternoon showers across western
municipalities.

Model guidance continues to show 925-mb temperatures near the 25th
percentile for November climatology, supporting slightly cooler
daytime and nighttime temperatures, with no heat-related impacts
anticipated.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Up to breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term period,
particularly Sunday to early Monday as a surface high starts the
period over the western to central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model guidance
suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and below normal
values Wednesday and Thursday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low
pressure system will move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic
promoting a looser pressure gradient and, in turn, these decreasing
wind speeds. Precipitable water (PWAT) will be at up to normal
values (1.5 to 1.8 in) during the period with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture and nearby troughs will promote showers, steered by mainly
northeasterly flow, reaching windward sectors of the islands at
times and promote a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior
to SW PR, these can promote brief heavy downpours. Model guidance
suggests a trough approaching the region to end the period
increasing humidity and instability while also resulting in steering
flow veering to become more southeasterly, but uncertainty remains.
925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low
end normal values for this time of the year, reaching more normal
values to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist over the next forecast
period. Periods of VCSH across the USVI and TJSJ today. NE winds
with gusty period up to 20 to 25kts aft 227/14Z. Wind speeds
becoming lighter aft 27/22Z, around to 10 mph, with land breeze
variation overnight. VCSH activity is anticipated, particularly
across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI sites aft
28/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface highs over the central Atlantic will continue to promote
moderate to fresh easterly winds over the next few days, bringing
rough seas across the offshore waters and passages. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through Friday morning for the offshore
Atlantic Waters and the Anegada Passage. Small Craft Advisories are
also in effect through this morning for the offshore Caribbean Waters
and the Mona Passage. Even after the SCAs expire, breezy conditions
across most waters and choppy seas up to 6 feet across the Atlantic
waters are expected to prevail through early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone) for the northern,
eastern, southeastern and some southern exposed beaches of Puerto
Rico, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
By tomorrow, southeastern and southern PR is forecast to have a
low risk of rip currents. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
will continue through early next week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

* Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms today and
tonight, with a limited flooding risk across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through noon today for
the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage.
Afterwards, boaters will still need to exercise caution as
choppy seas will continue through the weekend.

* Breezy conditions during the weekend, especially along exposed
coastal areas.

* Moderate risk of rip currents will persist through the forecast
period, especially along the north-facing beaches of the
islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

Frequent fast-moving showers affected the USVI, Vieques, Culebra
and, mainly, western Puerto Rico. Since midnight, radar estimated
accumulations indicate that localized areas of Puerto Rico,
particularly Juncos, Las Piedras, Yabucoa, Maunabo and Loiza
received above an inch of rain. Juncos received the highest radar
estimated accumulations, 1.37 in. The highest accumulations over the
USVI were around a quarter of an inch. Lows ranged from the low to
mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Some isolated reported coastal lows of Puerto Rico
were in the upper 60s and in the upper 70s (near the metro area).
Reported lows over interior Puerto Rico were in the low to mid 60s.

Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch
of moist air moving over the region with values ranging from 1.5 to
1.8 in, at normal values for this time of the year. A mid to upper-
level trough, along with breezy trades and the above mentioned moist
air mass will continue to promote scattered to even numerous fast-
moving showers to start the period. The mid to upper level trough
will gradually move eastward and away from the region, with weak
ridging developing behind the trough. PWAT will be at up to normal
values (1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip
towards below normal values forecast on Saturday. Although
somewhat decreasing winds are forecast today due to a surface
high over the central Atlantic that will continue to move
eastward as a low pressure system emerges from the northeastern
CONUS, another surface high will move into the western to central
Atlantic throughout the period, maintaining moderate to fresh
easterly flow, becoming more east- northeast to start the next
week. Up to breezy conditions will continue, especially along
exposed coastal areas. Hi- resolution model guidance continues to
suggest overnight and early morning showers (and a few isolated
t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI, particularly to
start the period. Coastal areas of northern and southern PR will
observe showers and possible isolated t-storms over their area or
over nearshore waters. Afternoon convection is forecast over
western Puerto Rico where isolated t-storms can also develop.
Areas downwind of El Yunque and of the USVI can also see
convective activity. Slightly below normal 500 mb temperatures are
forecast both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, also
bringing support to this afternoon convection and advective
showers reaching coastal areas. A limited flooding risk will
remain today for the region as heavy downpours and frequent fast-
moving showers over the above mentioned areas are forecast to
occur. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal
values for this time of the year.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

By early next week, winds will remain somewhat breezy but will
gradually subside as a polar trough pushes and weakens the surface
high over the northeastern Atlantic, easing the pressure gradient
across the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, expect northeasterly
winds with speeds decreasing to around 8 to 13 mph.

According to the latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance, moisture
will vary as patches of drier and slightly more humid air move
through the area. From Monday through early Wednesday, PWAT values
will remain near normal for this time of year, ranging between
1.50 and 1.75 inches. This streaming moisture will support passing
showers, mainly steered by a northeasterly flow, affecting windward
sectors at times. Afternoon convection is also possible, especially
over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy
downpours may occur.

By Wednesday afternoon, PWAT values will begin increasing, reaching
1.75 to 2.00 inches through Thursday. Model guidance indicates a
surface trough approaching the region Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday, accompanied by upper-level troughing. This will enhance
moisture and instability while causing the steering flow to veer
more easterly. As a result, this period have the highest chances
of precipitation, though the flood risk remains limited at this
time. Continue to monitor forecast updates as confidence improves
in the coming days. Winds are also expected to become breezy again
from Thursday into Friday. By the end of the period, Friday, more
stable conditions are expected as ridging builds at various levels
of the atmosphere, introducing drier air with PWAT values falling
below 1.4 inches, along with breezy easterly winds.

Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to rise to near-average values,
supporting seasonal surface temperatures. However, no heat-related
risks are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

SHRA/Isolated TS will continue to affect TIST/TISX/TJSJ and the
VCTY of TJPS/TJBQ to start the period, these can promote brief
MVFR conditions. However, VFR conditions are expected to dominate.
Easterly flow at around 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations is forecast for the terminals after 28/14z.
Overnight decreasing winds after 28/22Z are also forecast.
Afternoon SHRA/Isolated TS over interior to western PR can also
affect PR terminals or their VCTY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will sustain a
moderate to fresh easterly to northeasterly breeze through the
weekend. As a result, rough to hazardous seas will persist across
the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage, where Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least midday today.
Even after the advisories expire, breezy conditions and choppy
seas of around 5 to 6 feet, particularly across the Atlantic
waters, are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Boaters will need to exercise caution across most local waters
during the coming days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along beaches
from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This moderate risk
will persist through the forecast period, with life-threatening
rip currents possible, especially along the north-facing beaches
of the islands. Elsewhere, a low risk is expected, however, even
with a low risk, dangerous rip currents can still develop near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
531 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

* Breezy conditions during the weekend for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, especially along exposed coastal areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist, especially along
the north-facing and east facing beaches of the islands.

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will
prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the forecast period.

* Passing showers over windward sectors; afternoon showers and
isolated t-storms forecast for this afternoon mainly over
western PR posing a limited risk of flooding.

* The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends tomorrow, November 30th.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations indicate that showers
affected eastern PR, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. The highest
accumulations were at Naguabo where isolated areas received around
an inch of rain. The highest accumulations at the USVI were at St.
Croix, which received around 0.28 in. Lows ranged from the low to
mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Reported lows
over interior Puerto Rico were in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows
were in the 70s at the U.S. Virgin Islands. Satellite derived
precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch of moist air
gradually exiting the region with values ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 in,
at normal values for this time of the year.

A mid to upper level trough will continue moving eastward and away
from the region, with a weak mid to upper level ridge building over
the islands. An upper trough will then approach the region from the
north by late Sunday and Monday. PWAT will be at up to normal values
(1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip towards
below normal values forecast today (due to a patch of drier air). A
surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic during
the period supporting generally breezy conditions through Sunday,
with wind speeds decreasing on Monday as a frontal low moves over
the northwestern Atlantic and helps loosen the pressure gradient
pushing the surface high eastward. East to east-northeast
steering flow will persist during the period. Hi-resolution model
guidance continues to suggest overnight and early morning showers
(and a few isolated t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI.
Afternoon convection is forecast over western Puerto Rico where
isolated t- storms could also develop with areas downwind of El
Yunque and of the USVI also possibly seeing convective activty. A
limited flooding risk will remain today for the region as heavy
downpours over western PR are forecast to occur. 925 mb
temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal values for
this time of the year.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends this Sunday, November 30th.
According to the NHC's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

The forecast remains on track. From Tuesday into Wednesday,
expect northeasterly winds to weaken gradually. Precipitable water
(PWAT) values show fluctuating moisture levels but, overall,
remain near normal for this time of year (1.50–1.75 inches). This
moisture, combined with the northeasterly flow, will support
periods of passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas.
Afternoon convection also remains possible, particularly across
interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours
may develop.

An upper-level trough will linger over the region through
midweek, and we will need to continue monitoring its evolution to
determine whether any of its features begin to reflect at the
surface and potentially influence local weather conditions.

Drier air is still expected to filter in, with PWAT values
dropping below 1.4 inches, accompanied by continued breezy
easterly winds by the weekend. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast
to rise to near- average values, supporting seasonal surface
temperatures. No heat- related risks are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions forecast during the period. VCSH affecting
mainly TJSJ/TISX/TIST. Afternoon SHRA/Isold TSRA developing, mainly
over interior to western PR, and affecting PR terminals or their
VCTY. E winds at 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations after 29/14z, decreasing after 29/22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with
a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will
promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next
week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore
waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Similar to yesterday, a moderate risk of rip currents continues
along beaches from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as
well as at Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. This moderate risk
will persist throughout next week week, with life- threatening
rip currents possible, especially along the north- facing beaches
of the islands. By tomorrow, southern and southeastern PR, as well
as Vieques are forecast to drop to a low risk. Elsewhere, a low
risk is expected, however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip
currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

* The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends TODAY, November 30th.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening, posing a limited flooding risk, particularly across
Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail through at least
Monday. Therefore there is a Small Craft Advisory for the
Offshore Atlantic waters.

* Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents through next week
for PR and USVI.

* The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, should experience
pleasant temperatures throughout the forecast period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

Fresh easterly winds today brought fast-moving and frequent
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico,
with a few reaching farther inland. Radar shows up to about 1 inch
of rain in isolated spots of eastern Puerto Rico since midnight.
Winds were breezy in exposed areas, generally from the east-
northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland locations were light
or calm. Overnight temperatures dipped into the low 60s in the
higher elevations, with upper 70s across eastern and southeastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A typical pattern of passing trade-wind showers will continue this
morning, with frequent showers moving inland across northern
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. During
the afternoon, a few showers will develop across the southwestern
hills and downwind from the islands, including the Sierra de
Luquillo, steered by a fresh easterly breeze. Some of these
showers may produce brief heavier downpours with a limited
flooding risk, and a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Winds will reach 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts, and may be
locally stronger where sea-breeze effects form. Temperatures will
remain typical for this time of year, reaching the mid to upper
80s, with a few spots briefly near 90 degrees.


The typical overnight and early-morning pattern will return
tonight and continue each night, with passing showers affecting
northern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and nearby waters.
Afternoon showers will increase each day as conditions become more
favorable, shifting toward the southwest as winds turn more
northeasterly from Monday into early Tuesday. Winds will gradually
weaken as a surface trough approaches from the east, which will
allow showers to move more slowly and produce higher rainfall in
isolated areas. A deep upper-level trough moving in from the west
will linger over the region through Tuesday and will increase the
chance of thunderstorms beginning tonight, with the highest
potential late tonight into Monday night, especially for eastern
Puerto Rico and the USVI. Although flooding remains limited for
now, the area at risk may grow over the next few days as
thunderstorms become more common and rainfall coverage increases.
Lightning risk will also expand. By Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night, winds will slowly shift back to an east-northeasterly
direction. Nighttime temperatures will be slightly cooler as the
winds turn more from the northeast.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

An upper-level trough will continue to approach the region midweek,
extending its influence into the mid-levels. This pattern will
bring a moderate chance of instability (around 40 to 60 percent)
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Wednesday
through the end of the workweek. At the same time, an easterly
disturbance will approach the islands, maintaining a humid and
somewhat unsettled weather pattern during this period.

Thursday currently has the highest probability of additional weather,
with deeper moisture and instability supporting a 50 to 70
percent chance of scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could temporarily affect
outdoor activities. Additionally, if frequent showers develop over
the same areas, localized flooding may occur in regions with poor
drainage. Therefore, we anticipate a limited flooding risk,
particularly over PR.

From late Friday into Saturday, a high-pressure system over the
western Atlantic will move north of the islands. As it does so,
the high pressure will help weaken the trough, promoting a more
stable environment. However, lingering moisture (30 to 50 percent
chance of showers) will continue to support occasional showers,
especially during the overnight and early-morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times, with brief MVFR
CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and VIS drops mainly thru 30/14Z and again aft
30/23Z. TJPS/TJBQ may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA
30/17-22Z. Winds thru FL015 E 1525 kt. SFC winds light/calm
early, increasing to 1520 kt with gusts and SBRZ effects aft
30/13Z, then light/calm again aft 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with
a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will
promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next
week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore
waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect from 6 AM today across
the exposed Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

The risk of life-threatening rip currents is moderate along north
and east-facing beaches, particularly those along the
northwestern and southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in Vieques,
Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. This risk will continue
throughout the forecast period. In other areas, while the risk is
low, dangerous rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties,
reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 512 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

* This afternoon, the most active weather expected in southwest
Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* Trade wind showers each night and morning across eastern and
northern PR and the USVI. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
each afternoon, increasing the flooding risk to limited from
Tuesday through Thursday.

* The chance of thunderstorms will increase today through mid-
week, with the highest potential Tuesday, especially for eastern
PR and the USVI as a surface trough moves in from the east.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents are expected
through the work week across the north exposed beaches of
Puerto Rico and USVI.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

East-northeast trade winds brought passing showers across exposed
coastal areas of the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, with a few reaching inland and leaving around half
an inch of rain in isolated spots of northeastern Puerto Rico.
Winds were influenced by the land breeze but still tended to come
from the east-northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland
locations remained light or calm. Overnight temperatures dropped
into the low 60s in the higher elevations, with upper 70s across
the lower elevations.

Today, strong winds aloft will provide just enough lift to help
clouds grow and allow a few heavier showers to form. A shortwave
trough moving in from the west will add a little more support later
in the day. At the surface, winds will continue to weaken and turn
from ENE to NE as a surface trough approaches from the east.
Moisture will stay close to normal but will remain uneven across the
area. Passing trade-wind showers will continue this morning across
northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but
they will become less frequent through the day. As the day
progresses, showers will form over land, mainly downwind from the
mountains and where the sea breeze is strongest. This includes areas
west-southwest of the islands and the Sierra de Luquillo, with the
most active weather expected in southwest Puerto Rico. One or two
isolated thunderstorms may form, but overall activity will stay
limited. Hazard summary for today: a limited lightning risk and a
low to no flooding risk, even if a thunderstorm develops.

Tonight, winds will continue to weaken as a surface trough moves in
from the east and the shortwave trough aloft gets closer. This will
make the environment slightly more favorable for thunderstorms,
though most activity should stay offshore. A few trade-wind showers
may still reach northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, but they will be less frequent due to the lighter winds. On
Tuesday, the shortwave trough will move over the area, bringing the
coolest air aloft along with added instability and very weak
steering flow from the surface trough. These conditions make Tuesday
the most favorable day for thunderstorms, even if they remain
limited in coverage. Slow-moving showers or storms could bring heavy
rain, causing ponding of water or minor urban flooding. Tuesday
night, a few storms may linger or develop offshore under the
influence of the trough. By Wednesday, the trough will move away and
a mid-level ridge will build in, bringing warmer and drier air aloft
and a more stable pattern. Thunderstorm chances will drop sharply,
leaving only a small chance of one or two isolated afternoon showers
or storms. Hazard summary: limited lightning risk increasing tonight
and peaking Tuesday, with a limited flood risk also increasing
Tuesday; both risks lower on Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

The long-term forecast remains without significant changes. An
upper-level trough will continue to influence the region by
Thursday, while an easterly disturbance approaches the islands,
sustaining a humid and somewhat unsettled pattern. Latest
precipitable water (PWAT) guidance shows moisture peaking Thursday
between 1.65 and 1.85 inches, which is above the climatological
norm for early December. This enhanced moisture will support
showers driven by a northeasterly flow, periodically affecting
windward areas. Afternoon convection is also possible, particularly
across interior and western Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours
and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the 500 mb
temperatures should warm to above-normal values and that might
slightly decrease the chance.

As a result, this period (Thursday) feature the highest precipitation
chance, posing a limited flood risk at this time, as rain
activity will likely result in ponding of water in roads and
poorly drained areas, and a low chance to observe urban and small
streams flooding. Winds are also expected to become breezier from
Thursday through the weekend. By Friday and into the weekend, a
high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move north of
the islands. As ridging builds at various levels of the atmosphere,
more stable conditions are expected, with drier air arriving and
PWAT values falling below 1.4 inches, accompanied by moderate to
locally breezy easterly to northeasterly winds. Even so, lingering
moisture (20 to 50 percent chance of showers) will continue to
support occasional showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours.

Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to be near-average values,
supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat-related risks
are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX at times with brief MVFR
CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and short-lived VIS reductions thru the period.
TJPS may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA mainly 1/16–22Z.
Winds thru FL015: E 10–20 kt. SFC winds: LGT/VRB early, increasing
to 12–16 kt with higher GUSTS and SBRZ inflow aft 1/13Z, then
becoming LGT/VRB again aft 1/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

A surface trough east of the islands will promote moderate
northeasterly winds today, allowing seas to subside slightly but
still supporting the small craft should exercise caution headline,
particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. As this feature
approaches and moves across the CWA around Tuesday, winds will
become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast, then shift
to moderate from the east to northeast late Wednesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the waters over the
next few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

Along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including
Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is a
moderate risk of rip currents today. These conditions are expected
to remain similar through the workweek, with some improvement as
winds diminish, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Beachgoers
are urged to use caution, as a moderate risk means life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. A low risk
persists elsewhere; however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip
currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.
Visitors and residents are encouraged to always swim near a
lifeguard. For location-specific details, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

In addition to rip currents, beachgoers should remain weather
aware, as showers and isolated thunderstorms may move across
coastal areas of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
the north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin
Islands today and through much of the forecast period.

* We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the
interior and mountain areas of PR, St. Thomas, and St. John this
afternoon.

* St Thomas, St John, and the mountain areas in PR have a slight
risk of flooding rains this afternoon into the evening.

* Residents and visitors in the US Virgin Islands and the windward
portions of Puerto Rico can expect occasional passing showers
each day.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overnight hours remained relatively tranquil, with most showers
staying over the surrounding waters. Temperatures stayed in the 70s
along coastal areas and in the 60s across the higher terrains. Winds
were light and variable across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

The latest precipitable water models continue to show near-seasonal
moisture values over the local area, with slightly higher PWATs to
the northeast in association with an induced surface trough. Model
guidance favors this trough gradually drifting across the islands
over the next couple of days, weakening the prevailing NE–E flow and
allowing deeper moisture to pool across the region. At the same
time, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around –9 degrees
Celsius, falling below the 25th percentile for this time of year.
Cooler mid-levels, combined with higher moisture and favorable upper-
level ventilation, will support a more unstable environment. As a
result, deeper cloud development and a vertical development in
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected, particularly during
the afternoon when daytime heating maximizes convective growth.
Current guidance highlights today as the most active day in the
short-term period. Nevertheless the wet pattern should prevail
through Thursday. Weakening winds will also increase the likelihood
that any showers or thunderstorms that form move slowly or remain
nearly stationary. If that occurs, localized flooding could develop,
especially across the eastern half and interior sections of Puerto
Rico. Although model guidance support rainfall amounts capable of
producing minor flooding impacts, confidence remains limited due to
uncertainty in cloud cover. If widespread clouds develop early,
daytime heating and resulting convection may be weaker than the
rainfall signals suggest. For this reason, flooding potential is
present but remains under the limited threshold.

A similar pattern is anticipated on Wednesday, with afternoon
convection possible, though current model trends point to somewhat
lower coverage and intensity than what is expected today and
Thursday. Also models indicates a slight increase in 925 mb
temperatures through mid-week, with Wednesday likely being the
warmest day. While localized heat indices may briefly approach 100
°F, probabilities keep values below Heat Advisory criteria. As a
result, no significant heat-related impacts are anticipated during
the forecast period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge building from the west over the
northeast Caribbean will likely displace a trough aloft eastward
and away from the region by Friday, promoting a more stable
atmosphere. This ridge aloft is expected to build and persist
throughout the forecast period, supporting subsidence and dry air
aloft, and reinforcing the trade-wind inversion.

With this pattern in place, an advective trade-wind regime will
prevail. As a result, there is a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%)
chance of occasional passing showers across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands each day. Afternoon
convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico also
carries a low to moderate chance of developing daily, but current
guidance does not indicate a flooding threat at this time.

Overall, expect a mix of sunshine and clear skies with periods of
passing clouds. Windward locations can anticipate occasional brief
showers carried by the prevailing trades.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites. Brief
periods of MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJSJ, TIST, and TJPS due
to increasing afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will
remain light from the NE, with occasional higher gusts near any
stronger shower activity. After 02/17Z, VCTS, VCSH and -RA will be
possible at TJSJ, TIST, and TJPS mainly associated with slow-moving
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A surface trough northeast of the islands will promote moderate
northeasterly winds today, then winds will shift more from the
southeast to south tonight into Wednesday, as the trough moves
westward near the region. Afternoon thunderstorms will form the next
few days due to the proximity of the surface trough. A small easterly
swell will spread across the local waters through Thursday.
Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic
will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast winds the second part of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip
currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small
easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday
onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents
are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore.

Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are
strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of
changing conditions.

There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours, across western Puerto Rico. This activity could
move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of
lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

* The north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin
Islands have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents
today and through much of the forecast period.

* We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the
interior and western PR, this afternoon.

* The US Virgin Islands can expect a slight to moderate chance of
occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with impacts
limited to ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Calm weather prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with mostly clear skies over land and isolated brief
showers mainly over the surrounding waters. A few of these showers
filtered into eastern Puerto Rico, but they produced little to no
measurable rainfall and resulted in no significant impacts.
Temperatures settled into the 60s over the higher elevations and
the 70s along the coasts, while winds remained light and variable.

From today into Thursday, weather conditions are expected to be
variable. Lingering moisture from a departing surface trough will
allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during
the afternoon hours across interior and western Puerto Rico. Impacts
should be minor, with brief ponding of water on roadways or in
poorly drained urban areas. Therefore, flooding and lightning risks
will be limited or remain low today. On Thursday, an approaching
easterly disturbance may bring an increase in surface to mid-level
moisture, though the deepest plume is likely to stay south of the
islands. Due to this proximity, we anticipate a slightly higher
chance for showers, with the probability of widespread thunderstorms
staying low. Overall, Thursday is still favored to be the most
active day in the short-term period, though impacts should remain
under the limited threshold risk criteria.

By Friday, conditions are likely to become more stable as a mid- to
upper-level ridge builds from the west and displaces the trough
aloft. Drier air and a more suppressed pattern should lead to fewer
showers and lower chances for flooding or other hazards. If current
trends continue, the likelihood of impactful weather by the end of
the week remains significantly low.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

The 250-mb heights are at the 75th percentile of the December
climatology, indicating a strong mid- to upper-level ridge. Model
guidance agrees that this ridge will build and persist over the
Northeast Caribbean, leading to a substantial trade wind inversion
and subsidence caused by a denser, drier air mass located
primarily above 850 mb. Additionally, temperatures at 500 mb are
above normal (warmer than normal), also around the 75th
percentile. At the same time, the low-level lapse rates remain
relatively stable, falling below the 25th percentile and even
below -2 standard deviations. These factors indicate a stable
trend that is expected to dominate the local region over the long
term. Based on this information, both threats, the threat for
thunderstorm formation and flooding rain, were assigned to none
for the long-term period.

Under the described weather pattern, there is a likelihood of
having an advective pattern. As a result, there is a high chance
(60-80%) that residents and visitors in Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands can expect pleasant temperatures, with a mix of
sunshine and clouds each day. However, this advective pattern will
also bring a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance of
occasional passing showers, leading to brief periods of moderate
to locally heavy rain in portions of the windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Additionally, there is a low to
moderate chance of afternoon convection developing across the
interior and western parts of Puerto Rico each day; however,
current forecasts do not indicate a flooding threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. Brief periods of
MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJBQ and TJPS due to shower and
thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain between 5 to 13kts from the
E-NE, with occasional higher gusts near any stronger shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Winds will become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast as
the surface trough moves westward near the region. Afternoon
thunderstorms will form the next few days due to the proximity of the
trough. A small easterly swell will spread across the local waters
through Thursday, small craft operators should exercise caution
across the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas up to 6 feet.
Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic
will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast winds the second part of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip
currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small
easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday
onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents
are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore.

Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are
strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of
changing conditions.

There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours, across northwest Puerto Rico. This activity
could move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of
lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
341 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

* An increase in cloudiness and moisture will continue to result
in showers across eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection along the western interior.

* Slightly warmer daytime temperatures will persist over the
islands, surpassing seasonal normals, especially in urban and
coastal areas.

* Improving weather conditions are forecast from Saturday into
the upcoming workweek due to a more stable pattern.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all northern
coastal areas, including St. Thomas and St. Croix.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

Overnight weather conditions remained mostly calm under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies. Doppler radar detected a few quick-moving,
passing showers mainly across portions of eastern and northern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which resulted in minimal
accumulations. Minimum temperatures were observed in the low to mid
60s along the central mountain range of Puerto Rico and in the low
to mid 70s across the lower elevations of the islands. Winds were
light and variable throughout the night.

Today, a surface trough will continue to approach the local area
from the east, increasing the frequency of showers from this morning
into the late afternoon hours. The forecast remains on track, with
the bulk of the moisture associated with this trough remaining south
of the region. However, due to its proximity, there is an enhanced
chance for moderate to heavy showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms across the islands. Consequently, there is a limited
to elevated risk of excessive rainfall, particularly over portions
of central and southwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

From Friday into Saturday, weather conditions are expected to
improve as a mid-to-upper level ridge builds from the west,
promoting the intrusion of drier air and more stable conditions
aloft. Nonetheless, locally induced afternoon showers cannot be
ruled out, mainly over central and western Puerto Rico. This pattern
will likely extend into early next week, bringing limited showers
and great weather conditions for those early Christmas festivities
across the islands during the weekend.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the region during the next
few days, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the lower
elevations of the islands and from the upper 70s to low 80s along
the central mountain range of Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track. A strong mid to upper-
level ridge will be the main weather feature, mainly resulting in
a stable weather pattern during the period. At 500 MB,
temperatures in the -5 to -6 degree range and the 850 to 700 MB
lapse rate, two standard deviations from the climatological
values, will limit vertical development. Although very stable
conditions will prevail, a strong surface high pressure over the
Central Atlantic will drag patches of trapped moisture at 850 MB.
According to the global model guidance, precipitable water values
associated with the moisture patches will range from 1.4 to 1.6
inches, close to the climatological normals. Therefore, in the
afternoon, brief passing showers are possible due to diurnal
heating and local effects. On Sunday, surface winds will remain
mostly from the east as the surface high pressure remains in the
Central Atlantic. Veering winds are forecast from Monday onwards
as the surface high pressure builds further into the Central and
Eastern Atlantic.

Since the surface winds will remain east-southeasterly and plenty
of sunshine will be present due to the lack of instability,
daytime temperatures will remain just slightly above seasonal
levels across the islands. According to the global model guidance,
925 MB temperatures suggest warmer conditions from Monday
onwards, with Tuesday the warmest day of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mainly VFR conds across all terminals during the fcst period. The
proximity of a surface trough will result in an increase in SHRA/-
TSRA today, and promoting VCSH at TJSJ/TIST/TISX aft 04/13Z.
Afternoon convection will lead to VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ aft 04/17Z.
Winds will remain from the E-NE at 5 to 8 kt thru 04/13Z, increasing
between 10 to 14 kt thru 04/23Z, with occasional higher gusts near
the strongest shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

An induced surface trough just east of the islands will continue
to result in showers and thunderstorms across eastern local
waters. These showers will result in localized hazardous marine
conditions. On Friday, the islands will be dominated mainly by an
extending surface high pressure under moderate easterly winds,
resulting in seas up to 5 feet. Global model guidance suggests
energy from a northerly swell arriving in the northern offshore
Atlantic waters, probably resulting in high seas and hazardous
marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

An induced surface trough just east of the islands will continue
to result in showers and thunderstorms across the eastern coastal
areas during the morning hours today, and then across the western
side due to the afternoon showers.There is a low to moderate risk
of rip currents across the northern and northeastern coastal areas
of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. Croix.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

* Limited shower activity is forecast for today, with mostly
clear skies in the morning and afternoon.

* Seasonal daytime temperatures will persist over the islands
today into the weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80s
along the coastal areas and even in the low 90s across southern
coastal areas.

* Stable weather conditions are forecast for the weekend into
the upcoming workweek, with some passing showers but no flood
threat across the islands.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all northern
coastal areas, including St. Thomas and St. Croix.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today through Sunday...

Conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remained
tranquil, characterized by mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Satellite and radar observations showed a few passing showers moving
over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters; however, some of these
showers moved over the windward portions of the islands, resulting
in minimal accumulations. Overnight temperatures were observed in
the low to mid 60s along the higher elevations of Puerto Rico, while
they remained in the low to mid 70s along the lower elevations.

Today, a mid-to upper-level ridge extending from the west will
promote the intrusion of drier air and stable conditions aloft. This
ridge is projected to be the predominant synoptic feature for the
upcoming days, thus maintaining fair weather conditions across the
islands with very limited rainfall. Despite these conditions,
locally induced afternoon showers cannot be ruled out over central
and western Puerto Rico each day. By late Saturday into Sunday, a
surface high pressure system will begin to build north of the area,
supporting drier conditions into early next week. However, patches
of low-level moisture will move into the area on Sunday, promoting
the development of a few showers across the region. Seasonal
temperatures will prevail across the region during the weekend,
ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the lower elevations of the
islands and from the upper 70s to low 80s along the central mountain
range of Puerto Rico. Overnight lows are expected to settle between
the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations and the low to mid 70s
in the lower elevations, ideal conditions for holiday festivities
and the traditional "parrandas" this weekend.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track under a favorable stable
weather column across the islands. A strong and stalled mid to
upper-level ridge expanding in the central Atlantic will be the
main weather feature during the period.These features will hold a
stable weather pattern with warmer conditions aloft and a strong
trade wind cap inversion that limits vertical development across
the islands. Under this pattern, and as suggested by the 500 MB
temperatures in the -5 degrees, thunderstorm activity is not
anticipated. Although a lightning threat is not forecasted,
diurnal heating can still induce short-lived thunderstorms. Although
very stable conditions will prevail, a strong surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic will drag patches of trapped
moisture at 850 MB. According to the global model guidance,
patches of trapped moisture with precipitable water values from
1.4 to 1.6 inches, close to the climatological normals, will move
in and out of the region embedded in the trade winds. Therefore,
in the afternoon, brief passing showers are possible due to
diurnal heating and local effects. Surface winds will remain
mostly from the east as the surface high pressure remains in the
Central Atlantic, and veering winds are forecast from Monday
onwards as the surface high pressure builds further into the
Central and Eastern Atlantic.

By midweek, as the surface high pressure establishes across the
central Atlantic, a tight in the pressure gradient will result in
breezy conditions. Additionally, since the surface winds will
remain east-southeasterly and plenty of sunshine will be present
due to the lack of instability, daytime temperatures will remain
just slightly above seasonal levels across the islands. According
to the global model guidance, 925 MB temperatures suggest warmer
conditions from Monday onwards, with Tuesday the warmest day of
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conds expected across all terminals during the fcst period.
Mainly fair weather conds expected today; however, few passing
showers moving across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI will
result in VCSH across all TAFs sites thru 05/14Z. Winds will remain
from the ENE at less than 10 kt thru 05/13-14Z, increasing between
12 to 16 kt thru 05/22-23Z, with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today, an extending surface high pressure will dominate the
islands, producing moderate easterly winds and seas reaching up to
5 feet. A drier air mass is also moving across the region, which
will limit shower activity throughout the day. Global model
guidance indicates that energy from an incoming northerly swell
will reach the northern offshore Atlantic waters, likely leading
to higher seas and hazardous marine conditions. An increase in
surface winds will result in wind-driven seas, and energy from a
north-northwesterly swell will increase seas across the Atlantic
waters and the local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents across the
northern and northeastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra,
St. Thomas, and St. Croix. Global model guidance indicates that
energy from an incoming northerly swell will reach the northern
offshore Atlantic waters, likely leading to higher seas and
hazardous marine conditions. An increase in surface winds will
result in wind-driven seas, and energy from a north-northwesterly
swell will increase seas across the Atlantic waters, the local
passages, and the locally exposed beaches across the islands,
including the U.S. Virgin Islands

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

* Mostly fair and stable weather will continue for Puerto Rico, with
a few quick showers at times, especially overnight and in the
morning across eastern areas.

* The U.S. Virgin Islands will also see fair weather, with
occasional brief showers mainly during the night and early morning
hours.

* Winds will gradually increase by the end of the workweek, leading
to breezier conditions over the islands and coastal waters.

* A northerly swell expected late in the week, combined with
increasing winds, may lead to rougher seas and a higher risk of
life-threatening rip currents, though some uncertainty remains
regarding its timing and strength.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

Weather conditions during the night remained variable with passing
showers due to moisture and cloudiness that moved across the local
islands. The shower activity was limited to northern coastal areas,
affecting only those areas with minimal rainfall accumulations.
Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 70s across coastal and
urban areas, and even colder in the interior and mountain areas.

The short-term forecast remains on track. At the mid to upper
levels, a broad surface high-pressure system will continue to result
in mostly drier air aloft, stable conditions, and warmer
temperatures at 500 MB. Under this stable weather pattern, some
pockets of trapped moisture at 850 MB will move in and out due to
the moderate easterly winds across the area. According to the
precipitable water values from the derived satellite imagery, values
fluctuate between 1.15 and 1.4 inches today and are even drier with
a PWAT of around 1 inch for the rest of the period. Additionally,
the surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will hold for
today, with a slight increase in the pressure gradient resulting in
breezy conditions.

Given the expected conditions, a mostly stable weather pattern is
forecast for today with breezy conditions and limited showers. Since
the weather pattern will stay very stable, a lightning threat is not
expected today. On Sunday, the presence of the mid to upper-level
high pressure will hold stable conditions; however, the high-
resolution model suggests an increase in passing showers from late
Saturday into Sunday, increasing the Probability of Precipitation
(POP) up to 50 percent across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. As the surface high pressure moves farther east,
veering winds are forecast on Tuesday, pushing tiny patches of
moisture along the east side of the CWA as suggested by the global
model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF. Additionally, this wind
surface pattern might result in slightly warmer coastal and urban
daytime temperatures.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

A persistent mid-level ridge will dominate the period, maintaining
below- to near-normal mid-level relative humidity and generally
stable conditions. Climatology comparisons keep 700-500 mb relative
humidity in the lower to mid percentiles, but periodic patches of
low-level moisture will still move through, producing brief PWAT
increases and allowing isolated to scattered showers mainly across
eastern PR and the USVI during the nighttime and morning hours.
Afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico remain possible whenever
moisture deepens toward 700 mb. Even with the ridging aloft, 500 mb
temperatures are expected to remain cool enough for seasonal 700-500
mb lapse rates to support limited afternoon convection. Any storms
that develop will be short-lived and shallow, but a few brief
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

At the surface, southeast winds start out light early in the period
due to a weak pressure gradient. By the end of the workweek, winds
will strengthen and shift slightly east-southeast as the gradient
tightens across the northeastern Caribbean. Temperatures will remain
above normal, particularly early in the period under a southeasterly
wind flow, supported by 925 mb temperatures and 1000-850 mb
thickness values running near to above normal. Highs will generally
reach the mid to upper 80s at lower elevations.

Overall, the pattern favors stable conditions with passing shallow
moisture, occasional brief convection, increasing winds late in the
workweek, and continued warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the period.
Winds will remain from the east, peaking up up to 15 knots from
06/15Z. VCSH to -RA still expected across TJSJ and TIST for the
following hours. Some brief passing showers are expected in isolated
areas across the mountains, resulting in lower ceilings and reduced
VIS. An increase in -SHRA is forecast from 07/06Z across TIST, TISX,
and TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

An east to northeast 4 to 5 ft swell at around 10 seconds and
moderate trades will promote choppy seas across most offshore
waters and local passages today. A building surface high pressure
north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades
(easterlies) on Sunday before subsiding early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low to moderate rip current risk is expected through early next
week. Model guidance also suggests a long-period northerly swell
arriving in the Atlantic waters late in the workweek, which will
result in a potential increase in the rip current risk.
Strengthening winds may contribute as well. Some discrepancies
remain among model solutions regarding the timing and magnitude of
the swell, adding uncertainty to the forecast. Continued monitoring
is advised as conditions evolve.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

* Mostly fair and stable conditions will continue through the
period, with brief overnight and morning showers on windward sides
and isolated afternoon showers across the interior and west. No
flooding impacts are expected.

* Winds will increase late in the week, leading to breezy to windy
conditions across coastal and elevated areas by Thursday and
Friday. Lightweight outdoor items may be blown around in exposed
locations.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, fair weather will prevail, with a
few quick passing showers mainly during the night and early
morning. Winds will become noticeably stronger late in the week.

* Marine and beach conditions will deteriorate mid- to late week as
increasing winds and an incoming long-period northerly swell raise
seas and rip current risks. Hazardous surf and Small Craft
Advisories are likely.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

A variable weather pattern prevailed during the night into the early
morning hours, with abundant cloud cover and isolated to scattered
showers across the eastern section of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Rainfall activity was frequent, diminishing at 2 AM,
and rainfall accumulations were less than 0.5 inches. The rest of
the morning, cloudiness prevailed across the area as the surface
disturbance moved more westward into the Mona Passage. Overnight
temperatures remained in the mid to upper 70s across the coastal and
urban areas and in the 60s across the mountains.

For today, a similar weather pattern is expected, mostly due to a
mid- to upper-level broad ridge anchored in the central Atlantic.
This main weather feature will maintain very stable conditions
aloft, resulting in drier conditions, warmer temperatures at 500 MB,
and a drastically stable 850-700 MB lapse rate. At the surface, a
moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place as the broad
surface high pressure extending from the eastern Atlantic into the
Caribbean continues to result in a tight pressure gradient.
Therefore, today residents can expect breezy conditions across
coastal areas and local waters. Under the easterly wind flow, a
drier airmass will filter in, with precipitable water values of 1.1
in, as indicated by GOES-derived satellite imagery.

From Monday into Tuesday, a more east-southeasterly wind flow is
expected as the surface high pressure establishes across the central
Atlantic. Similar to previous days, precipitable water values will
remain quite low relative to the seasonal average, enhancing mostly
stable weather conditions with little rainfall activity. Although
excellent weather conditions will persist, diurnal heating at the
local level may enhance short-lived afternoon showers across the
western interior and northwestern sections. This shower activity is
not expected to pose a flooding threat across the affected areas.
Also, the wind component can help keep temperatures within seasonal
climatological normals and even slightly warmer in some coastal
areas.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

A persistent and increasingly dominant mid-level ridge will govern
the period, maintaining well-below-normal mid-level moisture. Recent
model cycles show 700-500 mb relative humidity frequently dipping
below 20 percent and at times near 10 percent, supporting a strong
and persistent inversion based near 850 mb through most of the
forecast period. This pattern will continue to favor stable
conditions and suppress deep convection for the most part. However,
occasional shallow moisture surges embedded in the trade winds will
periodically lift the inversion height above the 700 mb layer,
allowing for an uptick in passing showers. These events will favor
the overnight and morning hours across windward coastal areas.
During the afternoons, isolated to scattered showers remain possible
across the interior and western Puerto Rico, but any thunderstorms
that develop will be short-lived and very isolated. No significant
flooding threat is expected.

Toward the latter part of the period, surface high pressure over the
central Atlantic is forecast to strengthen while a frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the northeastern Caribbean and result in breezy to
windy conditions, especially across coastal and elevated areas from
late week into the weekend. These winds may cause unsecured or
lightweight outdoor items to blow around and could produce localized
minor impacts in areas exposed to stronger gusts.

Overall, conditions will remain largely stable with shallow
convection, limited rainfall amounts, and a notable increase in
winds late in the workweek into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period at all TAF sites.
Winds will remain from the east at 10 knots or less, increasing at
07/14Z up to 15 knots with gusty winds. Some brief RA to SHRA until
07/15z might continue to result in lower ceilings and a slight
reduction in VIS across TJSJ, TIST & TISX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

Marine conditions will remain moderate through early in the week,
with moderate easterly trades maintaining choppy seas across the
offshore waters and local passages. By midweek, strengthening high
pressure north of the region will tighten the pressure gradient and
increase easterly winds, allowing seas to build across the Atlantic
waters and exposed passages. At the same time, a long-period
northerly swell arriving midweek will further worsen conditions.
Hazardous seas and moderate to fresh winds are expected Thursday
into Friday, with Small Craft Advisories likely. A gradual
improvement remains possible over the weekend as winds and swell
ease.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 449 AM AST Sun Dec 7 2025

A low to moderate rip current risk will persist across the region
through the start of the week, primarily affecting the northern and
eastern exposed beaches of the islands, where weak northeasterly
swells and local winds are keeping the nearshore waters slightly
rougher. Conditions will start to change by midweek as a long-period
northerly swell moves into the area, which is expected to increase
wave energy and significantly raise the rip current risk along north-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some
uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and strength of this
swell, but the overall trend suggests a more hazardous setup from
Wednesday onward. Beachgoers should stay updated, since conditions
could deteriorate quickly once the swell arrives.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
429 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

* Marine and beach conditions will deteriorate by the second part
of the workweek, bringing choppy to rough seas and life-
threatening rip currents.

* Winds will increase late in the week, leading to breezy to windy
conditions across coastal and elevated areas by midweek.
Lightweight outdoor items may be blown around in exposed
locations.

* Mostly fair weather conditions are expected for the first part
of the workweek across the islands, with passing showers
promoting ponding of water across roadways and poorly drained
areas.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, few passing showers are very likely
during the night through the early morning hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

Overnight cloud cover was variable across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with only isolated and brief showers developing
over the local waters and occasionally brushing windward coastal
areas. Winds remained light to moderate from the east, with
typical land breezes dominating through the night.

Satellite imagery early this morning shows a pronounced dry slot
advancing toward the islands. This feature is expected to drop
precipitable water values below 1.0 inch, which is roughly two
standard deviations below normal for this time of year. As this dry
air moves overhead, mostly fair weather conditions should prevail
today, with limited shower activity.

For the remainder of the short-term period, a strong mid to upper-
level ridge northeast of the region will continue to dominate the
overall pattern. The ridge will gradually shift eastward, allowing
some troughiness to approach from the northwest Tuesday through
Wednesday. Although the area will remain mainly under ridge
influence, model guidance indicates a slight increase in mid-level
instability. Lapse rates at 500 mb are forecast to dip to near-
normal values between -6 and -7 degrees Celsius, with slightly
steeper lapse rates between 700 and 500 mb. This subtle change aloft
could enhance shallow convection. At lower levels, patches of
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region
from time to time. These will increase shower frequency,
particularly during the nighttime and early morning hours along
windward coastal sectors. During the afternoons, convection is
expected to develop across interior and western/northwestern Puerto
Rico. While most activity should remain shallow, a few short-lived
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, mostly on Wednesday.

At the surface, the high pressure over the central Atlantic will
shift slightly eastward, loosening the pressure gradient over the
region. Lighter steering winds will allow any showers that form to
move more slowly. Given this setup, a limited flooding threat has
been introduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Impacts should
remain minor, consisting mainly of ponding of water on roadways and
in poorly drained areas, with a low chance of urban and small-stream
flooding.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

No major changes were introduced to the forecast, as a broad mid-
level ridge will dominate and promote mostly fair conditions and
limited rainfall across the CWA. Moisture content will vary at
times, as a broad surface high pressure moving over the Central
Atlantic will bring patches of moisture, increasing the frequency of
showers across the islands. Based on the deterministic guidance of
the GFS and ECMWF, PWAT values will likely remain below normal
(between 1.2 and 1.4 inches), with a low chance of near above
climatological normal (up to 1.6 inches). Additionally, mid-level
moisture RH is expected to plummet well below normal (down to 10%)
while low to mid-level lapse rates shall remain seasonal to below
normal (3 - 5 degrees Celsius per kilometer). In terms of
instability, deep convection activity may be limited as 500 mb
temperatures will likely be warmer than normal (between -5 and -6
degrees Celsius), as the presence of the mid-level ridge should
promote stability aloft. A seasonal weather pattern is very likely
over the period, with passing showers moving over windward
sections and the U.S. Virgin Island streamers by noon, while
daytime heating combined with local effects and available moisture
should be enough for afternoon convection each day, particularly
over the western and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Due to
increasing winds, likely to promote breezy to locally windy
conditions, showers should become more progressive and less
stationary, reducing the chance of flooding. Although a lightning
risk is not expected through the period, short-lived isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly by the end of the
period.

Under a southeasterly wind flow, warmer-than-normal temperatures are
expected throughout the period, particularly during the day.
Although isolated areas may reach heat indexes of 100 degrees
Fahrenheit at low elevations on the islands, no heat threat is
expected in the long-term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind showers could move at
times across the USVI and east terminals of PR late in the forecast
period. ESE winds are expected to increase btw 10-15 kt aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will promote
east to southeast moderate to locally fresh winds today, weakening
and becoming moderate tonight. By midweek, strengthening surface
high pressure north of the region will tighten the pressure gradient
and increase winds, allowing seas to build across the Atlantic waters
and exposed passages. Additionally, a long-period northerly swell
arriving late Thursday night will further worsen conditions. Choppy
to rough seas are expected, with Small Craft Advisories likely by the
end of the workweek. A gradual improvement remains possible by the
weekend as winds and swell ease.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 357 AM AST Mon Dec 8 2025

The beach forecast remains on track. The moderate risk of rip
currents will continue over the north and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Wednesday.
Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution as life-threatening
rip currents are possible along the surf zone. Winds will likely
increase by Wednesday, with breaking waves increasing between 5 to
6 feet. Additionally, a long- period northerly swell is expected
to arrive by late Thursday night and spread across the local
waters and passages, deteriorating beach conditions particularly
along north- facing beaches of the islands. Hence, the chance of
life- threatening rip currents will increase to high over the
aforementioned areas. Residents and visitors are urged to check
the beach forecast before going out, and heed the advice of the
flag warning system. As the swell diminishes, beach conditions
should improve by the upcoming weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
503 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

* Marine and beach conditions will deteriorate by the second part
of the workweek, expect choppy to rough seas and life-
threatening rip currents.

* Winds will increase late in the week, leading to breezy to windy
conditions across coastal and elevated areas, lightweight
outdoor items may be blown around in exposed locations.

* For Puerto Rico, showers are expected to continue during the
morning hours across the east/southeastern portions. Over
west/northwest PR, afternoon showers are expected each day.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers will continue
throughout the morning, becoming frequent later tonight and
early tomorrow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

Satellite imagery and Doppler radar early tonight showed an area of
higher moisture and increased cloud cover associated with a weak
surface perturbation drifting across the islands. This feature
briefly enhanced shower activity over the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques, Culebra, and the southeastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.
However, rainfall accumulations were minimal.

For today, the mid-level ridge will continue to influence the
region, shifting slightly eastward as some troughiness approaches
from the northwest. Model guidance indicates that 500 mb
temperatures will be at their lowest of the short-term period. As a
result, 700-500 mb lapse rates will steepen slightly, providing
marginal instability. However, mid-level dryness will continue to
limit vertical development, keeping most showers shallow. The weak
trade wind perturbation will support variable cloudiness and passing
morning showers over windward coastal sectors, followed by localized
afternoon showers across the interior and western/northwestern
Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence.

Wednesday remains slightly wetter. Model guidance indicates
increasing moisture throughout the column, with precipitable water
values nearing 2.0 inches and 700–500 mb relative humidity rising to
above-normal levels. This additional moisture, combined with
gradually strengthening easterly to east-southeasterly winds and
marginal instability, will promote more frequent showers. Afternoon
convection over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico
will be deeper than in recent days, and a few isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out.

Thursday will feature a pattern similar to today, with shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow supporting passing
nighttime and early morning showers over windward areas, followed by
isolated to scattered afternoon showers across the interior and
west/northwest Puerto Rico. However, rainfall accumulations may be
lower than today as breezy to locally windy conditions are expected,
leading to quick-moving showers.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

Mostly fair conditions are expected to persist this upcoming
weekend, becoming variable early next week. As mentioned in the
previous discussions, a surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic will strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient, with SE
winds promoting breezy to locally windy conditions on Friday and
Saturday. Additionally, a mid-level ridge lingering northeast of the
CWA should serve as a blocking pattern, as shower activity will
mostly be limited through at least Sunday. Nevertheless,
“troughiness” in the mid to high levels may weaken the mid-level
ridge, slightly cooling 500 mb temperatures (between -6 and -7
degrees Celsius), and bringing marginal instability. From the latest
model guidance, PWAT values are expected to increase by early
Monday, although model solutions show high variability as ensemble
members show a spread between 1.2 - 1.6 inches. The most likely
scenario is an increase in frequency of showers early Monday over
the windward sections of the islands, with afternoon convection over
western and northwestern PR, including the San Juan streamer. The
latest model solutions also suggest that the proximity of a col
region north of the region may weaken winds, promoting slow-moving
showers. Taking into account possible marginal instability
conditions, the flooding potential may increase during the
afternoons, with mostly ponding of water over roadways and poorly
drained areas, and a low chance of urban and small stream flooding.
Although widespread lightning risk is not likely, short-lived
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

As winds are likely to remain from the southeast, model guidance
continues to suggest warmer-than-normal 925 mb temperatures,
particularly during peak daytime hours. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, the heat index in localized areas over the lower
elevations of the islands may reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit, but no
heat threat is expected during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

Mainly VFR conds expected across all terminals. Brief -SHRA/VCSH
will continue to move in from the E, mainly affecting USVI terminals
(TIST/TISX) and occasionally TJSJ through 09/14z, with brief
MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGs psbl. Sea-breeze influences aft 14Z may trigger
SHRA/VCSH at TJBQ and interior PR. Winds light/vrb overnight,
becoming ESE 10–15 kt with ocnl higher gusts aft 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will promote
east to southeast gentle to moderate winds today through Wednesday.
The high pressure will strengthen and tighten the pressure gradient
and increase winds, allowing seas to build across the Atlantic waters
and exposed passages. Additionally, a long-period northerly swell
arriving early Thursday will further worsen conditions. Choppy to
rough seas are expected, with Small Craft Advisories likely by the
end of the workweek. A gradual improvement remains possible by the
weekend as winds and swell ease.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 449 AM AST Tue Dec 9 2025

The moderate risk of rip currents will continue over the north and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through at least Wednesday. Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise
caution as life-threatening rip currents are possible along the surf
zone. A long-period northerly swell is expected to arrive early on
Thursday, and spread across the local waters and passages.
Combined with increasing winds, beach conditions are very likely
to deteriorate and become dangerous mainly along north- facing
beaches of the islands. Residents and visitors are urged to check
the beach forecast before going out, and heed the advice of the
flag warning system. As the swell ease and winds weaken, beach
conditions should improve by the latter part of the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

* Marine and beach conditions will deteriorate beginning Thursday.
Expect choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents.

* Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated today across coastal
and elevated areas. Light-weight outdoor items may be blown
around in exposed locations.

* For Puerto Rico, shower activity will increase throughout the
day, with limited flooding risk over eastern portions during the
morning and the northwestern section in the afternoon.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, showers will become more frequent
today, promoting ponding of water over roadways and poorly
drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

Satellite imagery and Caribbean radar data overnight indicated the
leading edge of a trade wind perturbation moving into the local
area. This feature produced brief clusters of showers across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and the southeastern coastal areas of Puerto
Rico, although rainfall totals generally remained under one-tenth of
an inch. The bulk of deeper moisture and shower activity persisted
farther east across the Leeward Islands, coinciding with slightly
higher Advected Layer Precipitable Water (ALPW) values within the
700-500 mb layer.

For today, the mid-level ridge centered northeast of the region will
continue to dominate the overall pattern, while weak troughiness
lingers to the northwest. Instability aloft remains marginal and
characteristic of the season, but a notable increase in low-level
moisture will accompany the advancing perturbation. Model guidance
continues to support precipitable water values fluctuating near or
around 2.0 inches as the disturbance moves across the islands. As a
result, expect an uptick in shower frequency, particularly for
windward coastal areas during the morning hours, followed by
additional afternoon showers developing over the interior and
northwestern Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating and local sea breeze
convergence.

Low-level winds will strengthen and veer slightly southeasterly
through the day, with 925 mb wind speeds forecast to reach above-
normal levels. Breezy conditions along coastal sectors are therefore
likely, with locally higher gusts in showers. A limited flooding
threat remains possible, mainly ponding of water on roads and poor-
drainage areas where showers persist.

For Thursday and Friday, model guidance indicates a broadly similar
pattern, with alternating pockets of drier and moister air moving
through the trade wind flow. These fluctuations in precipitable
water will largely dictate shower coverage from one period to the
next. Overall, mid-level relative humidity is expected to remain on
the lower side, limiting vertical development and keeping most
showers shallow and brief.

During the overnight and morning hours each day, patches of
increased moisture will support passing showers across windward
coastal areas. As drier slots move in, activity will diminish,
especially through the mid-day period. Isolated afternoon showers
may still form across the interior and western Puerto Rico due to
diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence, but rainfall
accumulations should remain light given the persistent mid-level
dryness. Breezy east-southeasterly winds will continue, particularly
along coastal sectors, with no significant flooding threat
anticipated.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

Variable conditions may persist early next week, introducing changes
to the long-term forecast. The surface high pressure lingering over
the Central Atlantic will continue to promote southeasterly winds,
bringing breezy to windy conditions on Saturday. Due to the presence
of the mid-level ridge lingering northeast of the region, shower
activity should remain limited. But conditions will slightly worsen
as a disturbance in the trades is now expected to arrive late
Saturday night into Sunday, increasing the frequency of showers
across the windward sections of the islands. From the latest
probabilistic guidance of the GFS and the ECMWF, ensemble members
are now tending to a “wetter” pattern for this time of the year, as
there is a medium chance of seasonal and above climatological normal
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values (1.4 - 1.6 inches), with a low
chance of reaching 2.0 inches. By late Sunday night, the moisture
content should decrease and remain between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.
Although the frequency of showers should decrease, the latest
guidance suggests that the surface high pressure will interact with
a polar trough, weakening the pressure gradient. Winds should
become light and variable by Monday and Tuesday, meaning any
developing shower will likely become stationary and produce higher
rainfall accumulations. The latest model solutions show the polar
trough deepening more into the tropics, cooling 500 mb
temperatures (around -7 degrees Celsius), and enhancing marginal
instability conditions. Additionally, an
upper level trough may weaken the mid-level ridge and increase
instability aloft. Although the lightning risk is not expected to
be widespread, the chance of short-lived isolated thunderstorms
is increasing. Overall, afternoon convection is expected each day
of the period, with flooding potential increasing on Monday and
Tuesday, particularly over portions of western/northwestern Puerto
Rico and the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Although the flooding
risk is not anticipated across the U.S. Virgin Islands, streamers
developing near noon may linger near the coastal areas.

With southeasterly winds expected through most of the period, warmer
than normal temperatures will continue across the islands, with very
localized areas reaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit heat indexes during
daytime. Nevertheless, no heat risk is expected across the islands
for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mainly VFR across all terminals. A trade-wind perturbation will
bring periods of -SHRA/VCSH moving in from the E, mainly affecting
USVI terminals (TIST/TISX) and occasionally TJSJ through the
morning. Brief MVFR CIGS/VIS possible in passing SHRA. Low-level
winds ESE-SE 10–16 kt, with ocnl higher gusts aft 14Z. Sea-breeze
influences after 14Z may trigger SHRA/VCSH over TJBQ and interior PR
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

A building surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will
continue to promote easterly gentle to moderate winds today,
becoming moderate to locally fresh tonight. Increasing winds
combined with a long- period northerly swell arriving early Thursday
will lead to choppy to rough seas mainly over the Atlantic offshore
waters. A Small Craft Advisory in effect from Thursday morning
through late Thursday night. Although conditions will slightly
improve by Friday, hazardous conditions for small craft may return
by the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 440 AM AST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today, the rip current risk will remain moderate along the north
and east-facing beach of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Although the risk is
moderate, beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution as life-
threatening rip current are possible along the surf zone.

The forecast remains on track, as increasing winds combined with a
northerly long- period swell arriving early tomorrow will
increase breaking wave along exposed beaches and bring hazardous
beach conditions. Hence, a high risk of rip currents is
anticipated along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. As the swell spreads and diminishes by Friday,
dangerous beach conditions may persist in the weekend. Residents
and visitors are are urged to check the beach forecast before
going out, and heed the advice of the flag warning system.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

* Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are
expected into the weekend.

* For Puerto Rico, passing showers are expected mainly during the
night/early morning hours across the eastern sections. Followed
by limited afternoon shower activity over the northwest.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, a surge in moisture moving from the
Anegada Passage will bring showers and some cloudiness today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

Mostly fair conditions persisted during the night hours, with
passing showers moving across the local waters and passages into
portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based
on station reports, rainfall accumulations remain low (up to 0.06
inches), except on St. Croix, which received 0.16 inches in 3 hours.
SE winds slightly weak, but isolated stations such as in Utuado,
Aibonito, and Cayey in Puerto Rico reported wind gusts up to 27
mph. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Cyril E. King and Henry E.
Rohlsen International Airports, both at St. Thomas and St. John,
respectively, reported 17-20 mph wind gusts. According to local
stations, temperatures were slightly warmer compared to yesterday,
with lower elevations in the low to mid 70s and higher elevations
in the low to mid 60s.

No major changes were introduced to the short-term forecast. The
surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to
promote southeasterly winds through most of the period, increasing
by Saturday morning and bringing breezy to windy conditions (winds
between 15 - 25 mph, wind gusts up to 35 mph) once again across the
islands. The mid-level ridge lingering northeast of the region
continues to dominate the weather pattern, warming mid-level
temperatures, serving as a cap for deep convection and limiting
cloud growth. Another drier air mass is expected to filter into the
region in the morning hours, lowering the chance of precipitation
across the islands. The latest HIRES models indicate afternoon
convection over portions of northwestern Puerto Rico each day,
though rainfall accumulations are unlikely to pose a flooding risk.
Another disturbance in the trades is expected to arrive this
afternoon, pooling high moisture content for this time of the year.
The latest deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF suggests
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values increasing to seasonal and even
above climatological normals (1.4 and 1.6 inches, with a low chance
of reaching 1.8 inches). The most likely scenario remains, with an
increase in showers over the Caribbean waters moving over
southeastern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands for the rest of the day into the night hours, persisting
through Friday morning. Although a widespread flooding risk is not
expected, isolated areas may experience ponding of water over roads
and poorly drained areas. A similar weather pattern is expected on
Friday and Saturday, with another drier air mass filtering on Friday
afternoon (PWAT dropping between 1.0 and 1.2 inches) and another
disturbance arriving by early Saturday, increasing once again shower
activity across the islands and persisting throughout the day.


&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

A broad surface high pressure will linger near and south of the
Azores through the long term period. Meanwhile, a cold front is
expected to move early in the workweek over the western Atlantic.
This surface pattern will promote southeasterly winds over the
local area, leading to warmer than normal daytime temperatures
across the islands. Max temps are forecast to range from the upper
80s to low 90s in some of the lower elevations, with heat indices
reaching the low 100s, particularly in western PR.

In terms of weather conditions, a similar weather pattern is
expected early in the period due to the influence of a mid-to
upper-level ridge to the east/northeast of the region. This will
promote fairly stable conditions, with brief patches of moisture
embedded in the trades bringing passing showers across the USVI
and eastern portions of PR during the night. Shallow afternoon
convection is still expected to develop over NW PR, but rainfall
accumulations are not expected to cause flooding concerns.
However, by midweek, an upper level trough will bring SW winds
aloft, and cause a brief weakness at the surface that will allow
for better pooling of moisture over the area as weak surface
troughs move from east to west. This will increase the chance of
showers between 40-60% each day across the islands, with a slight
chance of thunderstorm development over west/northwest PR late in
the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

Mainly VFR conds across most TAF sites, with brf prds of MVFR conds
over TIST due to -RA through 11/13z. VCSH is expect by 11/18z due
another disturbance from the SE at most terminals through at
least 11/23z, reducing CIGs/VIS and brfly promoting MVFR conds.
Winds from the SE btwn 10-13 kt with gusts up to 23 kt are likely
after 11/13-14z, weakening btwn 5-8 kt around 11/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

A surface high pressure will continue to build near the Azores
through the weekend. A weak cold front and another surface high
pressure will move from the western Atlantic into the central
Atlantic during the next few days. This will promote moderate to
locally fresh east to southeast trades across the local waters.
Increasing winds and a long period northerly swell will cause choppy
to rough seas, mostly over the Atlantic offshore waters. Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected across these waters, however,
SCA conditions can spread into portions of the Anegada and Caribbean
waters later this weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 442 AM AST Thu Dec 11 2025

A long period northerly swell and increasing wind-waves will
cause life-threatening rip currents along the north and east
facing beaches of the islands during the next few days. There is a
Rip Current Statement in effect for the northwest to northeast
beaches of PR, including Culebra, and the northern USVI. Beach
goers are urged to avoid swimming in these conditions, particularly
today and on Friday. The west/southern beaches of the islands
will have a moderate risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

* Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are
expected to continue through the weekend.

* For Puerto Rico, passing showers are expected mainly during the
night/early morning hours across coastal areas of eastern,
southern, and northern PR, followed by afternoon shower activity
over the western PR.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, fair weather conditions expected
through the morning hours. Passing showers increasing once again
later tonight through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

Isolated to scattered showers associated with a disturbance
persisted during the night, moving across the local waters and
portions of southern and eastern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Based on the WSR-88D rainfall estimates, these
areas received up to 1 inch of precipitation. By midnight, isolated
thunderstorms developed over the Mona Passage, producing lightning.
Temperatures were slightly warmer than yesterday, as cloud cover
inhibited effective radiative cooling, and stations reported less
widespread cooler temperatures. Over coastal areas, temperatures
remain in the mid-70s, while higher elevations stayed in the mid to
high 60s, with isolated areas dropping to the low 60s. Stronger
winds were seen last night, as more stations in coastal areas and
higher elevations reported wind gusts up to 27 mph.

Small changes were introduced to the short-term forecast, as
variable conditions are likely to persist in the weekend. As the
disturbance continues to retreat from the region, satellite-derived
products show the drier air mass mentioned in the previous
discussion already started filtering into the region, bringing
mostly fair conditions across the CWA. Based on the latest model
solutions, low to mid level moisture content should plummet to below
climatological normal ( with PWAT values between 1.0 and 1.2 inches,
even lower), which should limit the shower activity for today. The
surface high pressure will strengthen and linger over the Central
Atlantic throughout the period, with east-southeasterly winds
increasing, leading to breezy to windy conditions across the
islands. The mid-level ridge northeast of the region is now expected
to weaken due to a polar trough deepening into the tropics, which
will slightly cool 500 mb temperatures (between -6 and -7 degrees
Celsius), promote cloud growth, and introduce marginal instability
across the CWA. Confidence is increasing in the short term, as
deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF currently agrees on an
increase of moisture content due to a disturbance in the trades
moving across the region tonight, and another on Saturday evening
into early Sunday. Ensemble members are now tending to a wetter
pattern for this time of the year, with PWAT values likely between
1.4 and 1.6 inches, a medium to high chance of reaching 1.8 inches
on Saturday night (above climatological normal). The most likely
scenario remains, with an increase in shower activity, particularly
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico,
becoming stronger on Saturday evening. Although showers and isolatd
thunderstorms will likely be progressive rather than stationary,
periods of heavy showers will likely lead to ponding of water along
roads and poorly drained areas, with isolated urban and small
streams flooding. Hence, the flooding risk will remain limited,
particularly over northeastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Weather conditions should improve by Sunday morning, as another
drier air mass will reduce moisture content in the low and mid
levels, enhancing stability across the CWA and limiting shower
activity. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a southeasterly
wind pattern will continue pooling warmer air, leading to above
climatological normal temperatures in the short term. Nevertheless,
the heat threat will remain low for the rest of the period.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

Global models have a wetter solution than previous days with the
approaching frontal system over the western Atlantic and
associated upper level trough promoting more unstable conditions
through first part of the workweek. The 500 mb temperatures are
expected to drop to around -6.5C and the precipitable water
content is expected to remain near 1.75 inches, above normal
levels for most of the period. The mid-to upper-level ridge is now
expected to erode earlier and have little influence in the local
weather conditions. Pooling of normal to above normal moisture
content over the area will lead to weak surface troughs to move
from the east on most days, increasing the chance of showers
between 50-70% each day across the islands, with a slight chance
of thunderstorm development over western PR in the afternoon
hours. However, decided to not include them in the forecast as of
now due to possible model variations.

At the surface, a broad high pressure will linger near and south
of the Azores through the long term period. Meanwhile, a cold
front over the western Atlantic should remain north of the region
early in the forecast. This will promote a southeasterly wind
flow, leading to warmer than normal temperatures before the onset
of afternoon showers. Another surface high pressure is expected to
build behind the front and over the western Atlantic during the
second part of the week, bringing east to northeast trades and
a cooler air mass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

Mainly VFR conds are expcd across most TAF sites, with VCSH due SHRA
associated to disturbance through at least 12/12z. Winds from the E-
SE will increase by 12/13-14z, around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
through 12/23z. VFR conds will return in the morning as a drier ams
will move across the CWA, reducing SHRA activity, returning after
12/22-23z. VCSH for most terminals, that may reduce CIGs/VIS and
lead to brf MVFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

A surface high pressure will continue to build near the Azores
through the weekend. A weak cold front and another surface high
pressure will move from the western Atlantic into the central
Atlantic during the next few days. This will promote moderate to
locally fresh east to southeast trades across the local waters.
Increasing winds and a long period northerly swell will cause choppy
to rough seas, mostly across the Atlantic waters and portions of
the Anegada and Mona Passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 409 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025

A long period northerly swell and increasing wind-waves will
cause life-threatening rip currents along the north and east
facing beaches of the islands during the next few days. There is a
Rip Current Statement in effect for the northwest to northeast
beaches of PR, including Culebra, and the northern USVI. Beach
goers are urged to avoid swimming in these conditions, particularly
today and on Friday. The west/southern beaches of the islands
will have a moderate risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
345 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

* Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are
expected to continue through the weekend across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Patches of moisture will continue to reach the islands today
into Sunday, increasing passing shower activity. Limited
afternoon convection possible over northwest PR.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged by the
trade winds will continue to move into the area today.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected across the
islands this weekend.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

Today is expected to be the wettest day of the short term period due
to a surge of moisture associated with a weak trade wind trough.
This increase in moisture content, combined with daytime heating and
orographic lift over the Cordillera Central, could lead to scattered
to locally numerous showers, over central and western PR. However, a
wetter pattern is expected late this afternoon and through tonight
across the USVI and most coastal areas northern and southern PR, as
well across the eastern half of PR as the trough crosses the local
area. The precipitable water content is expected to peak close to 2
inches, well above normal levels. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, specially in an advective pattern across the waters
between the USVI and eastern PR. Urban and small stream flooding is
expected with the trough passage.

In contrast, on Sunday a temporary break from the rain is expected
as a pocket of drier and more stable air moves in from the east.
Based on global guidance, this is evidenced by a significant drop in
columnar moisture, with 850-700mb relative humidity levels dropping
from near 50% today to 10% on Sunday, resulting in mostly sunny
conditions with only isolated showers(0-20%). However, this drier
phase will be short lived. As an increase in wind speeds and a
subsequent return to higher mid-level moisture content is forecast
between late Sunday night into Monday. This suggests that scattered
showers(30-50%) will become more likely again as the synoptic
pattern influenced by a pre-frontal trough shifts back to a more
favorable setup for rainfall.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions
during the first half of the long term period. Normal to slightly
above-normal precipitable water content (PWAT) of 1.75 to 1.90
inches will enhance the potential for shower development across the
region. Showers are most likely over portions of eastern Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by afternoon showers over portions of central and western
Puerto Rico. During this period, the 500 mb temperatures are
expected to drop into the -6C to -7C range, meaning the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms, particularly across western Puerto
Rico, cannot be ruled out.

At the surface, a strong high-pressure system located over the
central Atlantic will maintain an east-southeasterly wind flow
across the area, promoting slightly higher than normal temperatures
throughout the week. However, by the second half of the long-term
period, another high-pressure system is expected to build over the
western Atlantic behind the frontal system. By then, winds are
expected to shift from the northeast, leading to cooler temperatures
into the northeastern Caribbean region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions early in the period. However, SHRA with max tops
around 15 kft are expected to continue to move from the Anegada
Passage, and cause mostly -RA/VCSH across the USVI and eastern PR
terminals early this morning. Late this evening and through the
overnight hours, additional SHRA en route from the Leeward Islands
associated to a weak surface trough could lead to tempo MVFR to
brief IFR conds across the same terminals. Iso TSRA is possible,
particularly btw 14/00z-06z. East winds expected to increase between
15 and 20 kt with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts aft
13/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

A surface high pressure system will continue to build near the
Azores through the weekend. A weak cold front and another surface
high pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the
central Atlantic over the next few days. This pattern will promote
moderate to locally fresh east to southeast trade winds across
the local waters. Increasing winds and a long-period northerly
swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly across the
Atlantic waters and portions of the Anegada and Mona Passages.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect at least through tomorrow
morning across the passages and through Sunday afternoon across
the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025

A long-period northerly swell and increasing wind waves will
create life-threatening rip currents along the north and east
facing beaches of the islands over the next few days. A Rip
Current Statement remains in effect for the northwest to northeast
beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas
and St. John. Beachgoers are urged to avoid swimming in these
conditions, particularly through late tonight. The west and
south- facing beaches of the islands will experience a moderate
risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
421 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

* A drier and stable air mass will continue to move across the
islands today, promoting limited showers.

* Choppy to rough seas are expected to continue across the
offshore Atlantic waters through at least Monday morning.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly fair weather conditions are
expected with few passing showers moving into the area.

* The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions
during the first half of the workweek.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

A drier and more stable air mass will continue to gradually fill
over the region today. This will promote mostly fair weather
conditions across the islands, with limited shower development this
afternoon over land areas. On Monday and Tuesday, global model
guidance continues to suggest a wet period, as an approaching cold
front and associated upper level trough from the western Atlantic
induces a pre-frontal trough near the local area. The precipitable
water content is expected to increase near 1.75 inches, which is
above normal levels. This pooling of moisture will allow for weak
surface troughs to move from the east, increasing the chance of
showers between 50-70% each day across the islands, with a slight
chance of thunderstorm development over western PR in the afternoon
hours. As the front remains north of the region, and the area sits
between two areas of high pressure over the Azores and behind the
front over western Atlantic, a southeasterly wind flow will prevail.
This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures before the onset
of afternoon showers.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

The inherited forecast remains on track. Instability is expected
to arrive in the area on Wednesday, driven by an upper-level
trough positioned along a frontal boundary north of the region.
At the surface, a building high-pressure system over the western
Atlantic will begin to push moisture associated with this front
into the local area, promoting wetter conditions by the latter
part of the week. As this surface high strengthens, winds will
shift to the northeast, pushing slightly cooler air into the area.
Under this pattern, frequent passing showers are expected during
the morning hours across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon showers over portions
of central and western Puerto Rico. During this period,
precipitable water content values are expected to range from 1.6
to 1.8 inches, suggesting normal to near-above-normal values for
the season. At the 500 mb level, temperatures are expected to
remain around -6C; however, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, particularly with the afternoon activity over western Puerto
Rico. Furthermore, the increasing pressure gradient force driven
by the strengthening high pressure will result in breezy
conditions during the latter half of the week, with wind speeds
sustained between 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected at times across the
area terminals. Winds will prevail from the east at 15-20 kt with
sea breeze variations and stronger gusts aft 14/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

A surface high-pressure system will continue to build near the
Azores, promoting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
across the local waters. Increasing winds and a fading long-period
northerly swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly
across the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect at least through Monday morning across the offshore
Atlantic waters. A cold front and another surface high- pressure
system will move from the western Atlantic into the central
Atlantic early next week, weakening the pressure gradient and
allowing for gentle to moderate winds through Tuesday. By midweek,
increasing winds and a northwesterly swell will deteriorate
marine conditions once again.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025

A fading, long-period northerly swell will create life-threatening
rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the
islands, where a Rip Current Statement remains in effect at least
through early this morning. Beachgoers are urged to avoid
swimming under these conditions. For the rest of the area, a low
to moderate risk of rip currents is expected to dominate from
today onwards, with beach conditions deteriorating again by
midweek as a northwesterly swell spreads across the local Atlantic
waters.