Texas Winter 2025-2026

Winter Weather Discussion

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wxman22
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#641 Postby wxman22 » Mon Dec 08, 2025 4:38 pm

Patience, the Arctic air will come eventually lol. We still have a lot of season left. I myself am enjoying these seasonal temperatures we’ve been having here. We’ve had 8 official freezes and have also received a trace of snow so far this season. Not bad for early winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#642 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 08, 2025 5:03 pm

wxman22 wrote:Patience, the Arctic air will come eventually lol. We still have a lot of season left. I myself am enjoying these seasonal temperatures we’ve been having here. We’ve had 8 official freezes and have also received a trace of snow so far this season. Not bad for early winter.

I already had 1.5 inches with a lot more freezes, I got 12 days below freezing so far after a very slow start. Not too bad
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#643 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Dec 08, 2025 5:12 pm

 https://x.com/i/status/1997921921648714152



This one from one of our local mets here in SA was probably making the rounds on social media. CPC pretty much signaling the same so no surprises here.

Definitely early and as I mentioned a few weeks ago and as many of you know, January and February are the months that we typically look to for cold here. Yes, if you live in the Panhandle or Wichita Falls even, it's not unusual to see some "early" winter weather or a few cold snaps but this is still Texas folks and climatology matters.

So yes absolutely no reason to write winter off to be sure but as mentioned a week ago if you liked a warmer weather pattern for this time of year it's on its way. Hope everyone is having a great day and yes, we need some rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#644 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 08, 2025 5:32 pm

Its models like that EPS image that make me wish i was living in the Yukon instead of down here
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#645 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 09, 2025 5:49 am

Yeah I think at this point we just hope Christmas isn't a complete torch like the latest GFS shows

Winter for real will come in January like usual
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#646 Postby Gotwood » Tue Dec 09, 2025 7:42 am

txtwister78 wrote: https://x.com/i/status/1997921921648714152



This one from one of our local mets here in SA was probably making the rounds on social media. CPC pretty much signaling the same so no surprises here.

Definitely early and as I mentioned a few weeks ago and as many of you know, January and February are the months that we typically look to for cold here. Yes, if you live in the Panhandle or Wichita Falls even, it's not unusual to see some "early" winter weather or a few cold snaps but this is still Texas folks and climatology matters.

So yes absolutely no reason to write winter off to be sure but as mentioned a week ago if you liked a warmer weather pattern for this time of year it's on its way. Hope everyone is having a great day and yes, we need some rain.

Given the trends plus the cold positioning it’s self up north I don’t think that verifies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#647 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 09, 2025 7:51 am

Even Mike Morgan of all people who has never met a cold front he didn't hype has temperatures pushing 70 by the 19th :lol: :spam: good grief
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#648 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 10:00 am

Hope for big cold and winter weather chances in january, the week of christmas is starting to look down right miserable
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#649 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 09, 2025 10:21 am

MJO just went into the circle of death, I was afraid it was going to do that
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#650 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 09, 2025 12:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:MJO just went into the circle of death, I was afraid it was going to do that


Ugh, dang it. We just need a couple things to go right, but they refuse to do so. We have months left, it just would be nice to have a consistent winter pattern for once, but it's hard down here.

My tree is finally changing colors. It's a fire dragon maple, so it turns red even in the worst conditions. Just been delayed a week or so this year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#651 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 09, 2025 12:18 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:MJO just went into the circle of death, I was afraid it was going to do that


Ugh, dang it. We just need a couple things to go right, but they refuse to do so. We have months left, it just would be nice to have a consistent winter pattern for once, but it's hard down here.

My tree is finally changing colors. It's a fire dragon maple, so it turns red even in the worst conditions. Just been delayed a week or so this year.

It's weird this year. Some neighborhood trees started changing in October but others, especially the big oaks, are just now starting to change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#652 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 12:48 pm

Ha! GFS switched from below freezing and ice down to SE TX around the 23rd to warm with rain, which matches what the ECMWF had been predicting. Highs in the 70s around the 22-25. Of course, that doesn't mean it'll happen, either. Not too bad for Christmas.
GFS is garbage beyond 5 days or so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#653 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 12:58 pm

My weather depression has kicked in after seeing what modes are showing for Christmas, think ill be celebrating indoors this year
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#654 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 1:22 pm

Stratton23 wrote:My weather depression has kicked in after seeing what modes are showing for Christmas, think ill be celebrating indoors this year


GFS has lows in the lower 70s for us Christmas morning. Good for a long bike ride, perhaps? Of course, next run may have us in the low 30s with precip. Euro has been steady in its prediction of no major cold air around Christmas, though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#655 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 1:32 pm

wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on christmas if it didnt mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#656 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 09, 2025 1:39 pm

Stratton23 wrote:wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on christmas if it didnt mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside


After years of persistent holiday December warm modes down here, I'll be doing a trip to Minneapolis next week to visit some family! Get the snow and cold fix in early :D. Beautiful forecast up there. It will likely get worse here as the years go by probably.

Texas just experienced another top warm November, and October was not far behind.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#657 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 1:45 pm

Stratton23 wrote:wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on Christmas if it didn't mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside


Fortunately, mosquitos don't seem to like me. Haven't seen (or noticed) one in years. I used to go fishing in clouds of mosquitos in south Louisiana swamps and they ignored me. We Cajuns have thick skin or just taste bad to mosquitoes. My wife is a different story (from Chicago).
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#658 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 2:00 pm

Gotwood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote: https://x.com/i/status/1997921921648714152



This one from one of our local mets here in SA was probably making the rounds on social media. CPC pretty much signaling the same so no surprises here.

Definitely early and as I mentioned a few weeks ago and as many of you know, January and February are the months that we typically look to for cold here. Yes, if you live in the Panhandle or Wichita Falls even, it's not unusual to see some "early" winter weather or a few cold snaps but this is still Texas folks and climatology matters.

So yes absolutely no reason to write winter off to be sure but as mentioned a week ago if you liked a warmer weather pattern for this time of year it's on its way. Hope everyone is having a great day and yes, we need some rain.

Given the trends plus the cold positioning it’s self up north I don’t think that verifies.


Granted you can have all the cold you want "positioned" up north but until you have the right setup/delivery mechanism in place to get it into Texas it is what it is and I'm not saying that won't change at some point as long as the cold continues to get recycled, but I don't see that happening before Christmas.

The 12z GEFS at the 384 range Christmas Day looks "better" though but that's obviously hype range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#659 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 09, 2025 2:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on christmas if it didnt mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside


After years of persistent holiday December warm modes down here, I'll be doing a trip to Minneapolis next week to visit some family! Get the snow and cold fix in early :D. Beautiful forecast up there. It will likely get worse here as the years go by probably.

Texas just experienced another top warm November, and October was not far behind.

I swear this weather always finds a way to torch like crazy
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#660 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Dec 09, 2025 2:31 pm

MJO going into the killer null phase, depressing would be an absolute understatement of the century here
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