Texas Winter 2025-2026

[starsfan65]

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

EPO is neutral positive due to trough up there. It is tied closely to Alaska, you need both for cross polar cold and then pushed to the lower 48 in a southerly direction. -AO can be beneficial because it expels Arctic cold and clogs up the 500mb flow from racing out to the Atlantic.

Code: Select all

2025 11 30 -143.31
2025 12 01  -85.18
2025 12 02  -89.11
2025 12 03  -84.15
2025 12 04  -68.53
2025 12 05   12.38

When the EPO will turn Negative?

[Golfisnoteasy75]

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

EPO is neutral positive due to trough up there. It is tied closely to Alaska, you need both for cross polar cold and then pushed to the lower 48 in a southerly direction. -AO can be beneficial because it expels Arctic cold and clogs up the 500mb flow from racing out to the Atlantic.

Code: Select all

2025 11 30 -143.31
2025 12 01  -85.18
2025 12 02  -89.11
2025 12 03  -84.15
2025 12 04  -68.53
2025 12 05   12.38

Im hoping we get the ao to trend negative. We definitely need a shake up if that would help things later

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

EPO is neutral positive due to trough up there. It is tied closely to Alaska, you need both for cross polar cold and then pushed to the lower 48 in a southerly direction. -AO can be beneficial because it expels Arctic cold and clogs up the 500mb flow from racing out to the Atlantic.

Code: Select all

2025 11 30 -143.31
2025 12 01  -85.18
2025 12 02  -89.11
2025 12 03  -84.15
2025 12 04  -68.53
2025 12 05   12.38

When the EPO will turn Negative?

It just was negative, but hopefully sooner rather than later.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

EPO is neutral positive due to trough up there. It is tied closely to Alaska, you need both for cross polar cold and then pushed to the lower 48 in a southerly direction. -AO can be beneficial because it expels Arctic cold and clogs up the 500mb flow from racing out to the Atlantic.

Code: Select all

2025 11 30 -143.31
2025 12 01  -85.18
2025 12 02  -89.11
2025 12 03  -84.15
2025 12 04  -68.53
2025 12 05   12.38

Ntxw, there is a guy by name of Kyle Mcrichie. He works for the cpc i think. He posted something showing the ao and nao and he believes the ao will be predominantly negative this winter and nao slightly negative. We shall see

[Stratton23]

12z Euro has a bit more blocking, like the GFS, although their is still plenty of room for improvement, i still believe the models will correct toward what phase 8 looks like, the last 2 GFS runs have shown my idea of what i think plays out

[txtwister78]

The ensembles overall through the 20th continue to look warm. No signs yet on the horizon that arctic air is lurking for Texas.

[JDawg512]

The ensembles overall through the 20th continue to look warm. No signs yet on the horizon that arctic air is lurking for Texas.

More concerning for me is lack of decent rain chances. Again I will point out that it is extremely late for tree color here, only now seeing a noticeable shift. Thanksgiving used to be peak color in Austin, when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, would be between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Overall I am not optimistic about this winter.

[Stratton23]

Lol someone on facebook posted a picture of the ensembles ahowing a torch on christmas in texas and its like a complete meltdown with folks, im very confident its not going to be a torch, you just simply arent getting that with a - WPO in place, also the models and ensembles have been REALLY BAD with over doing warm ups in the long range, look at the past couple of cold shots for texas this season and you’ll see what im talking about.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

While im on the fence about big cold on christmas, im pretty confident that its certainly not going to be a torch, models and even ensembles have been absolutely way too bullish on warm ups in the long range, and consistently have been have to correct colder for the south central and eastern US, im just saying that - WPO is going to at least limit what pacific air does get into the US, at worst we are probably talking maybe 70 degrees on christmas, but thats maybe, alot of scenarios are on the table here

The 12zgfs was interesting way out in lala land

[starsfan65]

Lol someone on facebook posted a picture of the ensembles ahowing a torch on christmas in texas and its like a complete meltdown with folks, im very confident its not going to be a torch, you just simply arent getting that with a - WPO in place, also the models and ensembles have been REALLY BAD with over doing warm ups in the long range, look at the past couple of cold shots for texas this season and you’ll see what im talking about.

Torch on Christmas? I ain't buying that. WPO has been our friend.

[Stratton23]

Yeah no torch lol, but i am cold biased, but i also am not jumping on the hype train yet, all i can say is it better be below 70 on christmas, I absolutely loath warm weather and i certainly cant hide it lol, no more of the texas sized mosquitoes please

[Iceresistance]

MJO could be defying forecasts to stay in Phase 7/8


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEwfm.png

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEwfk.png

[starsfan65]

Yeah no torch lol, but i am cold biased, but i also am not jumping on the hype train yet, all i can say is it better be below 70 on christmas, I absolutely loath warm weather and i certainly cant hide it lol, no more of the texas sized mosquitoes please

same here. No 70 Degrees on Christmas. It needs to be below 60 Degrees
.

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yeah its not making a lot of sense to me right now, either the diagram is wrong about the MJO or the models are WAY OFF, but we will see, ive been pretty stubborn about this pattern change lol, if im wrong, im wrong, Im 50:50 on this, i see both sides of the coin

[wxman57]

Pick your model. Each GFS run shows a different forecast for the 23rd. EC has been consistently forecasting warmer and drier. 12Z GFS gave up on the ice storm over Texas. Depending on which model is correct, temps across TX on the 23rd will either be in the 20s or 70s. I vote 70s.

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS-EC.jpg

[txtwister78]

Lol someone on facebook posted a picture of the ensembles ahowing a torch on christmas in texas and its like a complete meltdown with folks, im very confident its not going to be a torch, you just simply arent getting that with a - WPO in place, also the models and ensembles have been REALLY BAD with over doing warm ups in the long range, look at the past couple of cold shots for texas this season and you’ll see what im talking about.

In Texas, you can certainly still get warm air to win out. Many more factors at play here even with a -WPO.

The WPO is doing its thing for the NE and upper Midwest (Chicago/Iowa etc). Believe me they know it better than anyone. Our problem (if you're rooting for cold) is a lack of an active southern jet to get the polar jet to buckle and therfore create a path for the cold to push south instead of directed where it's been going as of late (SE).

Until that AO begins to cooperate I think most of the true cold air will continue to stay bottled up north. No sign yet that's going to change but again as long as the cold keeps getting recycled all it takes is one to deliver.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 good points, and im hoping i didnt jump the guns too soon, im kind of in cosgroves camp here, I just want it to where we arent dealing with those texas sized mosquitoes because its warm and humid lol, hard to do anything outside with those little buggers flying around attacking you any chance they get

[Iceresistance]

Oh good grief, I don't think I've seen the WPO modeled like this before


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEw5D.png

[Cpv17]

Oh good grief, I don't think I've seen the WPO modeled like this before

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEw5D.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEw5D.png

If we can get this to link up with a -EPO and -AO then we’re in business. -NAO would be nice too, but I won’t be too greedy

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Oh good grief, I don't think I've seen the WPO modeled like this before

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEw5D.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEw5D.png

The epo is opposite, unfortunately.