Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Lol at the gfs near zero with snow cover here Christmas Eve morning

These models have no clue

[wxman22]

Had a low of 25F degrees.

[Brent]

Forget Christmas TWC has freezing rain here next Monday now. Like I thought there was zero precip til close to Christmas at best

What is going on... These models are completely lost

[Wthrfan]

December has started out nice in OKC. Been below freezing every night with the highest max of 52. Currently 7.6 degrees below average for the month. I know it will modify the next week or two for the most part, but this is the coolest start to a December in roughly 7-8 years.

[Brent]

December has started out nice in OKC. Been below freezing every night with the highest max of 52. Currently 7.6 degrees below average for the month. I know it will modify the next week or two for the most part, but this is the coolest start to a December in roughly 7-8 years.

Yeah I dunno all this talk about a warmup I'm still waiting on the first one everyone talked about

I mean I know it's going to moderate but it's been really cold up here

[Golfisnoteasy75]

December has started out nice in OKC. Been below freezing every night with the highest max of 52. Currently 7.6 degrees below average for the month. I know it will modify the next week or two for the most part, but this is the coolest start to a December in roughly 7-8 years.

Yeah I dunno all this talk about a warmup I'm still waiting on the first one everyone talked about

I mean I know it's going to moderate but it's been really cold up here

The cold blast this weekend has moderated dramatically since a day ago, even for my area. Trough like everyone knows has been far east of us. Got to be patient

[Cpv17]

December has started out nice in OKC. Been below freezing every night with the highest max of 52. Currently 7.6 degrees below average for the month. I know it will modify the next week or two for the most part, but this is the coolest start to a December in roughly 7-8 years.

Yeah I dunno all this talk about a warmup I'm still waiting on the first one everyone talked about

I mean I know it's going to moderate but it's been really cold up here

The cold blast this weekend has moderated dramatically since a day ago, even for my area. Trough like everyone knows has been far east of us. Got to be patient

Very La Niña esqe pattern we’re in rn.

[HockeyTx82]

December has started out nice in OKC. Been below freezing every night with the highest max of 52. Currently 7.6 degrees below average for the month. I know it will modify the next week or two for the most part, but this is the coolest start to a December in roughly 7-8 years.

Yeah I dunno all this talk about a warmup I'm still waiting on the first one everyone talked about

I mean I know it's going to moderate but it's been really cold up here

What are we defining as a "warm up?" I mean it's Texas and we are not Canada. Our average temps are upper 50's for highs and mid 30's for lows.

I think it’s been seasonal. I've been around this board long enough but there seems to be chaos right now.

These new AI models messing with us?

[HockeyTx82]

I see wxman57 lurking..........

[wxman57]

Lol at the gfs near zero with snow cover here Christmas Eve morning

These models have no clue

Last week, I made an animation of the GFS surface and 500mb charts starting at 240 hrs and going back 25 runs. Valid time was 12Z this coming Friday. Every single run had a completely different pattern. Compare the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs from overnight, as an example. Completely different. The GFS can't handle this fast zonal flow very well. Don't believe it beyond 4-5 days. For the same time period (Dec. 23), the has a weak Canadian front pushing slowly out into the Gulf. Noting significant.

[wxman57]

I see wxman57 lurking..........

Yep, always lurking. I'd be VERY careful believing the outlier GFS in a long-range forecast.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Freezing fog this morning. 24 F

[gpsnowman]

Freezing fog this morning. 24 F
https://i.ibb.co/wFPyZS7C/IMG-3675.jpg

This picture is why winter is the most beautiful season. Cold, cloudy, foggy, the lone tree in the distance all in one. Beats the hell out of summer.

[rwfromkansas]

Exactly, as much as i love the cold, im certainly not going all in on this pattern happening, but their is enough their to at least watch how everything involves, I will say though models habe been absolutely atrocious this year with showing maasive warmups in the long range, the persistent - WPO isnt going to allow pacific air to just flood the country, so that is one good thing

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

[rwfromkansas]

Wasn't expecting a freeze this morning, so that was a good surprise. It seems like there is a lot of model chaos right now, which is why we are seeing the mood swings on here, correct? Looks like back to warmth next week, just not crazy, more seasonable. I will take that. Seasonable or slightly warm is fine with me if we get cold later. As long as things align up, eventually we will get that -AO or -EPO. Now that I'm older, I am not a fan of cold without something pretty to look at. And I was one of the crazy kids in Kansas who wore shorts in winter while in college.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

So it seems like right now there is a lot of model chaos, which is why we are having the swings in mood on here, correct? Looks like back to warmth next week, just not crazy, more seasonable. I will take that. Seasonable or slightly warm is fine with me if we get cold later. As long as things align up, eventually we will get that -AO or -EPO. Now that I'm older, I am not a fan of cold without something pretty to look at. And I was one of the crazy kids in Kansas who wore shorts in winter while in college.

Lots of moving parts it seems. Trough isn't in a position to produce winter weather for us currently. Makes me kinda believe LC when he said that the mjo isn't in mjo phase 8, despite the rmm charts showing that. I believe if the mjo was in phase 8, the ao/nao would be negative most likely. I used to play golf in the 30s with winds blowing 20 mph. Don't do that no more. Ive gotten older to lol

[TomballEd]

Everyone loves the 6Z GFS although a trace of sleet in Houston is just a novelty. I have 2 weeks off for Christmas, snow would be nice but wouldn't cancel school.

I think teachers love snow days more than students. We have a day or two built in for weather days, but a foot and a half of snow ala 1895 would mean a week off. Tax Day Floods in Houston TEA waived having to make up days. Ditto Harvey. That was 2 weeks. HISD added a few minutes to each class to meet the state rules, TEA waived some of the 10 days off, I don't think my school went back to the shorter regular schedule.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Freezing fog this morning. 24 F
https://i.ibb.co/wFPyZS7C/IMG-3675.jpg

This picture is why winter is the most beautiful season. Cold, cloudy, foggy, the lone tree in the distance all in one. Beats the hell out of summer.

Exactly!

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025


- The next strong cold front is expected to arrive on Friday and
will bring another shot of colder air for next weekend.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The extended forecast continues to look fairly quiet through
Thursday with temperatures warming into the upper 60s and lower
70s beneath dry northwest flow aloft. A strong late week shortwave
trough will swing through the Great Lakes on Friday and will usher
a fairly strong cold front southward through the Plains. This
front will likely move through North Texas on Friday with brisk
north winds and colder air spilling southward. The front looks
like it will come through dry, but the latest guidance points to
an upstream shortwave kicking out of the southwest U.S. over the
weekend. With ample moisture above the shallow colder air, modest
isentropic ascent would likely lead to at least some light rain
over the weekend. At this time, we`ll keep the forecast dry, but
continue to monitor over the coming days

[Ntxw]

Exactly, as much as i love the cold, im certainly not going all in on this pattern happening, but their is enough their to at least watch how everything involves, I will say though models habe been absolutely atrocious this year with showing maasive warmups in the long range, the persistent - WPO isnt going to allow pacific air to just flood the country, so that is one good thing

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

I thought they were both negative, or has the EPO gone positive?

EPO is neutral positive due to trough up there. It is tied closely to Alaska, you need both for cross polar cold and then pushed to the lower 48 in a southerly direction. -AO can be beneficial because it expels Arctic cold and clogs up the 500mb flow from racing out to the Atlantic.

Code: Select all

2025 11 30 -143.31
2025 12 01  -85.18
2025 12 02  -89.11
2025 12 03  -84.15
2025 12 04  -68.53
2025 12 05   12.38