Texas Winter 2025-2026

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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#541 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 5:35 pm

Ntxw yeah, will be interesting to follow for sure, i would like to see the trough trend a little more to the west, looks like a dry run on this run because the + PNA is a little too strong,
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#542 Postby Quixotic » Sat Dec 06, 2025 5:35 pm

If 1983 repeats it will spill right down the spine of the Rockies and lock in. Not much snow in such a pattern. More like non stop flurries.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#543 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 06, 2025 5:36 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Ntxw yeah, will be interesting to follow for sure, i would like to see the trough trend a little more to the west, looks like a dry run on this run because the + PNA is a little too strong,

It may not matter depending on where the +PNA ridge is going to be, if it keeps trending west, we could have trouble with all that snow
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#544 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 5:52 pm

GFS 18z looks like its getting ready to reload again after next weeks front, new weat coast ridge spiking into alaska, trough digging into the central plains, a couple of days ago it was nothing but warmth in the extended range, you love to see it hahaha
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#545 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 5:59 pm

Stratton23 wrote:GFS 18z looks like its getting ready to reload again after next weeks front, new weat coast ridge spiking into alaska, trough digging into the central plains, a couple of days ago it was nothing but warmth in the extended range, you love to see it hahaha


It would be nice if we can get that ridge out west to back off a bit.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#546 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 6:26 pm

AIFS almost drops the arctic nuke lol, interesting days and weeks ahead
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#547 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:04 pm

Quixotic wrote:If 1983 repeats it will spill right down the spine of the Rockies and lock in. Not much snow in such a pattern. More like non stop flurries.


1983 was nuts in Kansas. I saw old photos my parents had that birth year for me.

No huge snows but it snowed almost every day and added up to 2 feet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#548 Postby Golfisnoteasy75 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:12 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Quixotic wrote:If 1983 repeats it will spill right down the spine of the Rockies and lock in. Not much snow in such a pattern. More like non stop flurries.


1983 was nuts in Kansas. I saw old photos my parents had that birth year for me.

No huge snows but it snowed almost every day and added up to 2 feet.

Most legendary cold spell maybe ever. I personally don't like dry cold. Like I've been saying, if it's a front loaded winter, I hope we can get a winter event before it warms up and stays warm, which of course I hope don't happen lol. I would take a clipper and be content if that's all we get with a few inches of snow lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#549 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:39 pm

For me the late week cold front is the surprise. It was hardly even on the radar not long ago and went from 0-70mph regarding temperature expanse this quickly. That's such a hard turnaround for the models from the long to medium range.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#550 Postby Harp.1 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:44 pm

Too bad it looks dry. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#551 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:53 pm

Harp.1 wrote:Too bad it looks dry. :cry:


Unfortunately I'm not surprised. Most Arctic air has been here. It would not shock me

On the other hand I've always heard get the cold air first then worry about the precip
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#552 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 7:54 pm

Harp.1 wrote:Too bad it looks dry. :cry:


It’s way too early to say that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#553 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:01 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:Too bad it looks dry. :cry:


It’s way too early to say that.


Yes to be fair it definitely wasn't gonna snow when it's 80 degrees all winter :lol:

You have to pick your battles down here and remember where we live. Just getting cold air that far south will be a feat
Last edited by Brent on Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#554 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:04 pm

It is 7-8 days out, i wouldn’t write off precipitation yet even though a + PNA isnt all that great for that
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#555 Postby Sambucol2024 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:06 pm

I’m just happy to see an Arctic front coming our way in these models!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#556 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:27 pm

Ummmm, that's a uptrend and a half :eek: :cold: :froze:

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#557 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:32 pm

Thats a big ooof
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#558 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Ummmm, that's a uptrend and a half :eek: :cold: :froze:

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif


That much of a shift in this day and age inside 10 days is crazy

Just makes you wonder
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#559 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:41 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Ummmm, that's a uptrend and a half :eek: :cold: :froze:

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bEHCJ.gif


Ensembles are not innocent either. I just think the quality of cold air is quite good this season so far, that's probably what causes these trends when it comes closer. You can fail with AO/NAO etc but the WPO sources the air from Siberia and builds it over Canada.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#560 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:41 pm

I'd like to see the Rocky Mountain states to lose the reds and oranges and be replaced with the prettier blues, greens, and barnies. :froze:
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