Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

* Breezy trade winds will prevail from today onward; possibly
becoming windy by this weekend.

* A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast from this evening
onwards.

* Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR
throughout the week.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
the islands at times. Afternoon showers forecast today mainly
for interior to SW PR.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Mostly quiet conditions prevailed overnight. Radar imagery showed
isolated showers over the local waters, with a few reaching the
windward sides of the islands. These produced no significant
impacts, and radar-estimated rainfall totals were minimal. Surface
observations indicated somewhat variable winds at 10 to 13 mph or
less with slightly higher occasional gusts. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and into the low 60s, or slightly lower, across
the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

The short-term forecast remains on track. At the surface, high
pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward into the
central Atlantic through the forecast period, tightening the
pressure gradient and promoting a northeasterly flow across our
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected, particularly
today and Wednesday. Aloft, a shortwave trough will cross the
northeastern Caribbean today as a mid-level ridge migrates toward
the Cuba and Bahamas region. Under this pattern, an advective
trade- wind pattern will continue to dominate the short term,
supporting a low to moderate chance of nighttime showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto Rico, and a
slight to moderate chance of afternoon convection over interior
and southwestern Puerto Rico each day. With increasing wind
speeds, showers will move quickly, further limiting rainfall
accumulations and keeping flood risk from none to very low.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no
flood threat. The primary weather impact today and Wednesday will
be the strengthening winds, which will result in breezy
conditions. Unsecured items may be blown around, particularly in
coastal areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast for the long term
period, particularly Saturday onwards as a surface high builds
over the Atlantic. Increasing moisture will maintain PWAT values
at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture will promote showers steered by east-northeast, becoming
more northeasterly as the period progresses, flow to reach
windward sectors of the islands at times and promote a chance of
afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR. Flooding risks
are not forecast during the period. By Friday, the jet streak
will continue moving eastward and away from the area, while the
ridging weakens as a polar trough moves across the central
Atlantic. However, by Saturday and throughout the period, a high-
pressure system will build over the western to central Atlantic,
tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increasing
winds. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday through Tuesday. 925
mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year. Supporting highs in
generally the 80s, with some coastal/urban areas in the 90s and
higher elevations of PR in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low
to mid 70s, with some urban/coastal areas in the upper 70s and
higher elevations of PR into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conds across all TAF sites with just VCSH across TJSJ/TJBQ &
TIST/TISX in the USVI this morning and thru the rest of the
forecast period. Main aviation concern: NE wind flow will
dominate, becoming breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph or
slightly higher aft 25/13Z. VCSH possible bwn 25/15-21Z across
TJSJ and TJPS. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 25/23Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

A building high-pressure system moving into the central Atlantic
will bring increasing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over
the next few days. Confused seas are forecast as locally choppy wind
waves combine with an incoming northeasterly swell through tomorrow,
Wednesday. Small craft operators should exercise caution; small
craft advisories likely for tomorrow evening. Increasing winds and
building seas are also forecast by Saturday night and into the
weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 515 AM AST Tue Nov 25 2025

The risk of rip currents will remain low until this evening along
all local beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By
this evening, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as for
eastern St. Croix. Coverage of the moderate risk of rip currents
will increase to the northern USVI, Vieques and areas of southern
Puerto Rico as the week continues. By Thursday and Friday, a high
risk of rip currents is possible along north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico. High risk of rip currents are also forecast to start
the next workweek. Always check the beach forecast before heading
out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip
currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

* Up to breezy conditions will continue due to a surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine
conditions for small craft. A small craft advisory will be in
effect later tonight for the local offshore Atlantic.

* Periods of showers will affect mainly the windward locations of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands at times. Afternoon
showers are forecast today mainly for SW PR.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
exposed beaches of PR, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix; this risk will spread this evening to eastern PR,
southeastern PR, St. John and St. Thomas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

During the overnight hours, showery weather persisted across the
local waters, with a few showers reaching northern and eastern
Puerto Rico and the vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands. These
produced no significant impacts, and radar estimated rainfall totals
were minimal. Surface observations showed winds influenced by land-
breeze fluctuations, generally at 8 to 10 mph or less, with
occasional slightly higher gusts. Minimum temperatures ranged from
the low to mid-70s across coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
and into the low 60s or slightly lower across the mountains and
interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
move eastward into the central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient and supporting a persistent northeasterly flow across the
region. As a result, breezy trade winds are expected today and
tomorrow, with a slight decrease anticipated by Friday. Aloft, a
shortwave trough will move away today and tonight, allowing weak
ridging to briefly develop before a polar trough moves across the
central Atlantic, altering the upper-level pattern. Precipitable
water values are forecast to remain below normal today (1.20 to 1.30
inches) as mixed patches of dry and slightly more humid air stream
in under the northeasterly flow. Under this pattern, no significant
rain hazards are expected. There is a slight chance of morning
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and windward areas of Puerto
Rico, and a slight to moderate chance of afternoon showers across
southwestern Puerto Rico. With increasing wind speeds, any showers
will move quickly, further limiting rainfall accumulations and
keeping flood risk very low to none.

Tonight, moisture content will increase to near-normal levels
(around 1.5 to 1.6 inches), and with the axis of the upper-level
shortwave trough still present, an uptick in shower activity is
anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A similar pattern of trade-wind showers will persist on Thanksgiving
Day and Friday, with isolated showers overnight and in the morning,
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers across western
municipalities. No significant flooding impacts are expected though.

Model guidance continues to show 925-mb temperatures near the 25th
percentile for November climatology throughout the forecast period,
supporting more pleasant daytime and nighttime temperatures with no
heat risk impacts anticipated.

Overall, expect quick-moving passing showers with little to no flood
threat, fresher temperatures. Strengthening winds will be the
primary weather concern, producing breezy conditions that may cause
unsecured items, especially near coastal areas, to be blown around.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

Generally breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term
period, particularly Saturday to Monday as a surface high builds
over the western to central Atlantic and tightens the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model
guidance suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low pressure system will
move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic promoting a looser
pressure gradient and promote more seasonal wind speeds. PWAT
values will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) with patches
of drier and slightly more humid air providing some variability.
Patches of moisture will promote showers steered by east-
northeast, becoming more northeasterly as the period progresses,
flow to reach windward sectors of the islands at times and promote
a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior to SW PR.
Model guidance suggests the Wednesday will be the most humid day
with PWAT values at around 1.9 to 1.9 in, but uncertainty remains.
Flooding risks are not forecast during the period but above
mentioned showers can promote brief heavy downpours. 925 mb
temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low end
normal values for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions will persist along all the TAF sites during the day.
Expect period of VCSH across the USVI and TJSJ this morning. E to NE
wind flow will dominate, becoming breezy with gust up to 20 to 25
mph aft 26/14Z. Wind speeds becoming lighter aft 26/21-22Z, around 8
to 10 mph, with land breeze variation overnight. An uptick in shower
activity is anticipated, particularly across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the USVI sites aft 27/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

A building surface high pressure moving into the central Atlantic
will bring moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the next few
days. A dissipating northeasterly swell will also be present early
today. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from late tonight
through Friday morning for the Atlantic offshore waters due to
locally choppy wind waves. Small Craft should still exercise caution
over other local waters. Increasing winds and building seas are also
forecast by Saturday night and into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 518 AM AST Wed Nov 26 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and St.
Croix. This evening the moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
to spread towards eastern PR, southeastern PR, St. John and St.
Thomas. By early tomorrow, areas of southern PR will also be under
a moderate risk of rip currents. Up to a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue during the rest of the week with localized
areas possibly under a high risk of rip currents tomorrow night.
Always check the beach forecast before heading out, and avoid
swimming at beaches with a high risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

* Happy Thanksgiving! Breezy conditions are anticipated today;
therefore, unsecured items could blow around.

* Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine
conditions for small crafts; Small Craft Advisories are in
effect.

* Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible across most
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Quick moving showers will continue over windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and tonight; afternoon
showers forecast today for southwestern Puerto Rico as well.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight. As observed over the past
few days, showery weather persisted across the local waters, with
some showers reaching northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the
vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Radar estimates indicate
between 0.15 and 0.45 inches of rainfall in these areas since
midnight. Minimum temperatures ranged from the low to mid-70s across
coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and into the mid-60s or
slightly lower across the mountains and interior valleys of Puerto
Rico.

At the surface, a broad high-pressure system over the central
tropical Atlantic will continue to support a moderate to fresh east-
northeast wind flow through the forecast period. Aloft, lingering
influence from a shortwave trough will diminish as it moves away
this morning, allowing mid-level ridging to briefly develop across
the region. A polar trough is then forecast to move across the
western Atlantic tonight, along with its associated frontal
boundary, through the short-term period.

According to the latest guidance, precipitable water values will
fluctuate between 1.30 and 1.65 inches, which is considered below
normal to near average for this time of year. As a result, a
seasonable weather pattern will dominate the forecast, with a few
passing showers across windward areas throughout the day and
isolated to scattered afternoon showers developing across the
southwest quadrant of Puerto Rico today, Thanksgiving Day. Flood
risk remains locally limited, as localized ponding on roads and in
poorly drained areas cannot be ruled out, but in general, no
significant flooding impacts are expected. A similar pattern of
trade-wind showers will persist throughout the period, with isolated
showers overnight and in the morning across windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the vicinity of the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by
isolated to scattered afternoon showers across western
municipalities.

Model guidance continues to show 925-mb temperatures near the 25th
percentile for November climatology, supporting slightly cooler
daytime and nighttime temperatures, with no heat-related impacts
anticipated.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Up to breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term period,
particularly Sunday to early Monday as a surface high starts the
period over the western to central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model guidance
suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and below normal
values Wednesday and Thursday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low
pressure system will move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic
promoting a looser pressure gradient and, in turn, these decreasing
wind speeds. Precipitable water (PWAT) will be at up to normal
values (1.5 to 1.8 in) during the period with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture and nearby troughs will promote showers, steered by mainly
northeasterly flow, reaching windward sectors of the islands at
times and promote a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior
to SW PR, these can promote brief heavy downpours. Model guidance
suggests a trough approaching the region to end the period
increasing humidity and instability while also resulting in steering
flow veering to become more southeasterly, but uncertainty remains.
925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low
end normal values for this time of the year, reaching more normal
values to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist over the next forecast
period. Periods of VCSH across the USVI and TJSJ today. NE winds
with gusty period up to 20 to 25kts aft 227/14Z. Wind speeds
becoming lighter aft 27/22Z, around to 10 mph, with land breeze
variation overnight. VCSH activity is anticipated, particularly
across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI sites aft
28/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface highs over the central Atlantic will continue to promote
moderate to fresh easterly winds over the next few days, bringing
rough seas across the offshore waters and passages. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through Friday morning for the offshore
Atlantic Waters and the Anegada Passage. Small Craft Advisories are
also in effect through this morning for the offshore Caribbean Waters
and the Mona Passage. Even after the SCAs expire, breezy conditions
across most waters and choppy seas up to 6 feet across the Atlantic
waters are expected to prevail through early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone) for the northern,
eastern, southeastern and some southern exposed beaches of Puerto
Rico, as well as for Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
By tomorrow, southeastern and southern PR is forecast to have a
low risk of rip currents. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
will continue through early next week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

* Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms today and
tonight, with a limited flooding risk across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through noon today for
the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage.
Afterwards, boaters will still need to exercise caution as
choppy seas will continue through the weekend.

* Breezy conditions during the weekend, especially along exposed
coastal areas.

* Moderate risk of rip currents will persist through the forecast
period, especially along the north-facing beaches of the
islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

Frequent fast-moving showers affected the USVI, Vieques, Culebra
and, mainly, western Puerto Rico. Since midnight, radar estimated
accumulations indicate that localized areas of Puerto Rico,
particularly Juncos, Las Piedras, Yabucoa, Maunabo and Loiza
received above an inch of rain. Juncos received the highest radar
estimated accumulations, 1.37 in. The highest accumulations over the
USVI were around a quarter of an inch. Lows ranged from the low to
mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Some isolated reported coastal lows of Puerto Rico
were in the upper 60s and in the upper 70s (near the metro area).
Reported lows over interior Puerto Rico were in the low to mid 60s.

Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch
of moist air moving over the region with values ranging from 1.5 to
1.8 in, at normal values for this time of the year. A mid to upper-
level trough, along with breezy trades and the above mentioned moist
air mass will continue to promote scattered to even numerous fast-
moving showers to start the period. The mid to upper level trough
will gradually move eastward and away from the region, with weak
ridging developing behind the trough. PWAT will be at up to normal
values (1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip
towards below normal values forecast on Saturday. Although
somewhat decreasing winds are forecast today due to a surface
high over the central Atlantic that will continue to move
eastward as a low pressure system emerges from the northeastern
CONUS, another surface high will move into the western to central
Atlantic throughout the period, maintaining moderate to fresh
easterly flow, becoming more east- northeast to start the next
week. Up to breezy conditions will continue, especially along
exposed coastal areas. Hi- resolution model guidance continues to
suggest overnight and early morning showers (and a few isolated
t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI, particularly to
start the period. Coastal areas of northern and southern PR will
observe showers and possible isolated t-storms over their area or
over nearshore waters. Afternoon convection is forecast over
western Puerto Rico where isolated t-storms can also develop.
Areas downwind of El Yunque and of the USVI can also see
convective activity. Slightly below normal 500 mb temperatures are
forecast both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, also
bringing support to this afternoon convection and advective
showers reaching coastal areas. A limited flooding risk will
remain today for the region as heavy downpours and frequent fast-
moving showers over the above mentioned areas are forecast to
occur. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal
values for this time of the year.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

By early next week, winds will remain somewhat breezy but will
gradually subside as a polar trough pushes and weakens the surface
high over the northeastern Atlantic, easing the pressure gradient
across the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, expect northeasterly
winds with speeds decreasing to around 8 to 13 mph.

According to the latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance, moisture
will vary as patches of drier and slightly more humid air move
through the area. From Monday through early Wednesday, PWAT values
will remain near normal for this time of year, ranging between
1.50 and 1.75 inches. This streaming moisture will support passing
showers, mainly steered by a northeasterly flow, affecting windward
sectors at times. Afternoon convection is also possible, especially
over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy
downpours may occur.

By Wednesday afternoon, PWAT values will begin increasing, reaching
1.75 to 2.00 inches through Thursday. Model guidance indicates a
surface trough approaching the region Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday, accompanied by upper-level troughing. This will enhance
moisture and instability while causing the steering flow to veer
more easterly. As a result, this period have the highest chances
of precipitation, though the flood risk remains limited at this
time. Continue to monitor forecast updates as confidence improves
in the coming days. Winds are also expected to become breezy again
from Thursday into Friday. By the end of the period, Friday, more
stable conditions are expected as ridging builds at various levels
of the atmosphere, introducing drier air with PWAT values falling
below 1.4 inches, along with breezy easterly winds.

Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to rise to near-average values,
supporting seasonal surface temperatures. However, no heat-related
risks are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

SHRA/Isolated TS will continue to affect TIST/TISX/TJSJ and the
VCTY of TJPS/TJBQ to start the period, these can promote brief
MVFR conditions. However, VFR conditions are expected to dominate.
Easterly flow at around 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations is forecast for the terminals after 28/14z.
Overnight decreasing winds after 28/22Z are also forecast.
Afternoon SHRA/Isolated TS over interior to western PR can also
affect PR terminals or their VCTY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will sustain a
moderate to fresh easterly to northeasterly breeze through the
weekend. As a result, rough to hazardous seas will persist across
the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage, where Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least midday today.
Even after the advisories expire, breezy conditions and choppy
seas of around 5 to 6 feet, particularly across the Atlantic
waters, are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Boaters will need to exercise caution across most local waters
during the coming days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 542 AM AST Fri Nov 28 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along beaches
from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This moderate risk
will persist through the forecast period, with life-threatening
rip currents possible, especially along the north-facing beaches
of the islands. Elsewhere, a low risk is expected, however, even
with a low risk, dangerous rip currents can still develop near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
531 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

* Breezy conditions during the weekend for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, especially along exposed coastal areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist, especially along
the north-facing and east facing beaches of the islands.

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will
prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the forecast period.

* Passing showers over windward sectors; afternoon showers and
isolated t-storms forecast for this afternoon mainly over
western PR posing a limited risk of flooding.

* The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends tomorrow, November 30th.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations indicate that showers
affected eastern PR, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. The highest
accumulations were at Naguabo where isolated areas received around
an inch of rain. The highest accumulations at the USVI were at St.
Croix, which received around 0.28 in. Lows ranged from the low to
mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Reported lows
over interior Puerto Rico were in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows
were in the 70s at the U.S. Virgin Islands. Satellite derived
precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch of moist air
gradually exiting the region with values ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 in,
at normal values for this time of the year.

A mid to upper level trough will continue moving eastward and away
from the region, with a weak mid to upper level ridge building over
the islands. An upper trough will then approach the region from the
north by late Sunday and Monday. PWAT will be at up to normal values
(1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip towards
below normal values forecast today (due to a patch of drier air). A
surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic during
the period supporting generally breezy conditions through Sunday,
with wind speeds decreasing on Monday as a frontal low moves over
the northwestern Atlantic and helps loosen the pressure gradient
pushing the surface high eastward. East to east-northeast
steering flow will persist during the period. Hi-resolution model
guidance continues to suggest overnight and early morning showers
(and a few isolated t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI.
Afternoon convection is forecast over western Puerto Rico where
isolated t- storms could also develop with areas downwind of El
Yunque and of the USVI also possibly seeing convective activty. A
limited flooding risk will remain today for the region as heavy
downpours over western PR are forecast to occur. 925 mb
temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal values for
this time of the year.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends this Sunday, November 30th.
According to the NHC's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

The forecast remains on track. From Tuesday into Wednesday,
expect northeasterly winds to weaken gradually. Precipitable water
(PWAT) values show fluctuating moisture levels but, overall,
remain near normal for this time of year (1.50–1.75 inches). This
moisture, combined with the northeasterly flow, will support
periods of passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas.
Afternoon convection also remains possible, particularly across
interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours
may develop.

An upper-level trough will linger over the region through
midweek, and we will need to continue monitoring its evolution to
determine whether any of its features begin to reflect at the
surface and potentially influence local weather conditions.

Drier air is still expected to filter in, with PWAT values
dropping below 1.4 inches, accompanied by continued breezy
easterly winds by the weekend. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast
to rise to near- average values, supporting seasonal surface
temperatures. No heat- related risks are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions forecast during the period. VCSH affecting
mainly TJSJ/TISX/TIST. Afternoon SHRA/Isold TSRA developing, mainly
over interior to western PR, and affecting PR terminals or their
VCTY. E winds at 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations after 29/14z, decreasing after 29/22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with
a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will
promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next
week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore
waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025

Similar to yesterday, a moderate risk of rip currents continues
along beaches from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as
well as at Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. This moderate risk
will persist throughout next week week, with life- threatening
rip currents possible, especially along the north- facing beaches
of the islands. By tomorrow, southern and southeastern PR, as well
as Vieques are forecast to drop to a low risk. Elsewhere, a low
risk is expected, however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip
currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

* The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends TODAY, November 30th.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening, posing a limited flooding risk, particularly across
Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail through at least
Monday. Therefore there is a Small Craft Advisory for the
Offshore Atlantic waters.

* Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents through next week
for PR and USVI.

* The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, should experience
pleasant temperatures throughout the forecast period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

Fresh easterly winds today brought fast-moving and frequent
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico,
with a few reaching farther inland. Radar shows up to about 1 inch
of rain in isolated spots of eastern Puerto Rico since midnight.
Winds were breezy in exposed areas, generally from the east-
northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland locations were light
or calm. Overnight temperatures dipped into the low 60s in the
higher elevations, with upper 70s across eastern and southeastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A typical pattern of passing trade-wind showers will continue this
morning, with frequent showers moving inland across northern
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. During
the afternoon, a few showers will develop across the southwestern
hills and downwind from the islands, including the Sierra de
Luquillo, steered by a fresh easterly breeze. Some of these
showers may produce brief heavier downpours with a limited
flooding risk, and a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Winds will reach 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts, and may be
locally stronger where sea-breeze effects form. Temperatures will
remain typical for this time of year, reaching the mid to upper
80s, with a few spots briefly near 90 degrees.


The typical overnight and early-morning pattern will return
tonight and continue each night, with passing showers affecting
northern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and nearby waters.
Afternoon showers will increase each day as conditions become more
favorable, shifting toward the southwest as winds turn more
northeasterly from Monday into early Tuesday. Winds will gradually
weaken as a surface trough approaches from the east, which will
allow showers to move more slowly and produce higher rainfall in
isolated areas. A deep upper-level trough moving in from the west
will linger over the region through Tuesday and will increase the
chance of thunderstorms beginning tonight, with the highest
potential late tonight into Monday night, especially for eastern
Puerto Rico and the USVI. Although flooding remains limited for
now, the area at risk may grow over the next few days as
thunderstorms become more common and rainfall coverage increases.
Lightning risk will also expand. By Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night, winds will slowly shift back to an east-northeasterly
direction. Nighttime temperatures will be slightly cooler as the
winds turn more from the northeast.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

An upper-level trough will continue to approach the region midweek,
extending its influence into the mid-levels. This pattern will
bring a moderate chance of instability (around 40 to 60 percent)
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Wednesday
through the end of the workweek. At the same time, an easterly
disturbance will approach the islands, maintaining a humid and
somewhat unsettled weather pattern during this period.

Thursday currently has the highest probability of additional weather,
with deeper moisture and instability supporting a 50 to 70
percent chance of scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could temporarily affect
outdoor activities. Additionally, if frequent showers develop over
the same areas, localized flooding may occur in regions with poor
drainage. Therefore, we anticipate a limited flooding risk,
particularly over PR.

From late Friday into Saturday, a high-pressure system over the
western Atlantic will move north of the islands. As it does so,
the high pressure will help weaken the trough, promoting a more
stable environment. However, lingering moisture (30 to 50 percent
chance of showers) will continue to support occasional showers,
especially during the overnight and early-morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times, with brief MVFR
CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and VIS drops mainly thru 30/14Z and again aft
30/23Z. TJPS/TJBQ may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA
30/17-22Z. Winds thru FL015 E 1525 kt. SFC winds light/calm
early, increasing to 1520 kt with gusts and SBRZ effects aft
30/13Z, then light/calm again aft 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with
a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will
promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next
week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore
waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect from 6 AM today across
the exposed Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025

The risk of life-threatening rip currents is moderate along north
and east-facing beaches, particularly those along the
northwestern and southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in Vieques,
Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. This risk will continue
throughout the forecast period. In other areas, while the risk is
low, dangerous rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties,
reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 512 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

* This afternoon, the most active weather expected in southwest
Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* Trade wind showers each night and morning across eastern and
northern PR and the USVI. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
each afternoon, increasing the flooding risk to limited from
Tuesday through Thursday.

* The chance of thunderstorms will increase today through mid-
week, with the highest potential Tuesday, especially for eastern
PR and the USVI as a surface trough moves in from the east.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents are expected
through the work week across the north exposed beaches of
Puerto Rico and USVI.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

East-northeast trade winds brought passing showers across exposed
coastal areas of the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, with a few reaching inland and leaving around half
an inch of rain in isolated spots of northeastern Puerto Rico.
Winds were influenced by the land breeze but still tended to come
from the east-northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland
locations remained light or calm. Overnight temperatures dropped
into the low 60s in the higher elevations, with upper 70s across
the lower elevations.

Today, strong winds aloft will provide just enough lift to help
clouds grow and allow a few heavier showers to form. A shortwave
trough moving in from the west will add a little more support later
in the day. At the surface, winds will continue to weaken and turn
from ENE to NE as a surface trough approaches from the east.
Moisture will stay close to normal but will remain uneven across the
area. Passing trade-wind showers will continue this morning across
northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but
they will become less frequent through the day. As the day
progresses, showers will form over land, mainly downwind from the
mountains and where the sea breeze is strongest. This includes areas
west-southwest of the islands and the Sierra de Luquillo, with the
most active weather expected in southwest Puerto Rico. One or two
isolated thunderstorms may form, but overall activity will stay
limited. Hazard summary for today: a limited lightning risk and a
low to no flooding risk, even if a thunderstorm develops.

Tonight, winds will continue to weaken as a surface trough moves in
from the east and the shortwave trough aloft gets closer. This will
make the environment slightly more favorable for thunderstorms,
though most activity should stay offshore. A few trade-wind showers
may still reach northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, but they will be less frequent due to the lighter winds. On
Tuesday, the shortwave trough will move over the area, bringing the
coolest air aloft along with added instability and very weak
steering flow from the surface trough. These conditions make Tuesday
the most favorable day for thunderstorms, even if they remain
limited in coverage. Slow-moving showers or storms could bring heavy
rain, causing ponding of water or minor urban flooding. Tuesday
night, a few storms may linger or develop offshore under the
influence of the trough. By Wednesday, the trough will move away and
a mid-level ridge will build in, bringing warmer and drier air aloft
and a more stable pattern. Thunderstorm chances will drop sharply,
leaving only a small chance of one or two isolated afternoon showers
or storms. Hazard summary: limited lightning risk increasing tonight
and peaking Tuesday, with a limited flood risk also increasing
Tuesday; both risks lower on Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

The long-term forecast remains without significant changes. An
upper-level trough will continue to influence the region by
Thursday, while an easterly disturbance approaches the islands,
sustaining a humid and somewhat unsettled pattern. Latest
precipitable water (PWAT) guidance shows moisture peaking Thursday
between 1.65 and 1.85 inches, which is above the climatological
norm for early December. This enhanced moisture will support
showers driven by a northeasterly flow, periodically affecting
windward areas. Afternoon convection is also possible, particularly
across interior and western Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours
and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the 500 mb
temperatures should warm to above-normal values and that might
slightly decrease the chance.

As a result, this period (Thursday) feature the highest precipitation
chance, posing a limited flood risk at this time, as rain
activity will likely result in ponding of water in roads and
poorly drained areas, and a low chance to observe urban and small
streams flooding. Winds are also expected to become breezier from
Thursday through the weekend. By Friday and into the weekend, a
high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move north of
the islands. As ridging builds at various levels of the atmosphere,
more stable conditions are expected, with drier air arriving and
PWAT values falling below 1.4 inches, accompanied by moderate to
locally breezy easterly to northeasterly winds. Even so, lingering
moisture (20 to 50 percent chance of showers) will continue to
support occasional showers, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours.

Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to be near-average values,
supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat-related risks
are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX at times with brief MVFR
CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and short-lived VIS reductions thru the period.
TJPS may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA mainly 1/16–22Z.
Winds thru FL015: E 10–20 kt. SFC winds: LGT/VRB early, increasing
to 12–16 kt with higher GUSTS and SBRZ inflow aft 1/13Z, then
becoming LGT/VRB again aft 1/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

A surface trough east of the islands will promote moderate
northeasterly winds today, allowing seas to subside slightly but
still supporting the small craft should exercise caution headline,
particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. As this feature
approaches and moves across the CWA around Tuesday, winds will
become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast, then shift
to moderate from the east to northeast late Wednesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the waters over the
next few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025

Along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including
Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is a
moderate risk of rip currents today. These conditions are expected
to remain similar through the workweek, with some improvement as
winds diminish, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Beachgoers
are urged to use caution, as a moderate risk means life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. A low risk
persists elsewhere; however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip
currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.
Visitors and residents are encouraged to always swim near a
lifeguard. For location-specific details, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

In addition to rip currents, beachgoers should remain weather
aware, as showers and isolated thunderstorms may move across
coastal areas of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
the north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin
Islands today and through much of the forecast period.

* We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the
interior and mountain areas of PR, St. Thomas, and St. John this
afternoon.

* St Thomas, St John, and the mountain areas in PR have a slight
risk of flooding rains this afternoon into the evening.

* Residents and visitors in the US Virgin Islands and the windward
portions of Puerto Rico can expect occasional passing showers
each day.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overnight hours remained relatively tranquil, with most showers
staying over the surrounding waters. Temperatures stayed in the 70s
along coastal areas and in the 60s across the higher terrains. Winds
were light and variable across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

The latest precipitable water models continue to show near-seasonal
moisture values over the local area, with slightly higher PWATs to
the northeast in association with an induced surface trough. Model
guidance favors this trough gradually drifting across the islands
over the next couple of days, weakening the prevailing NE–E flow and
allowing deeper moisture to pool across the region. At the same
time, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around –9 degrees
Celsius, falling below the 25th percentile for this time of year.
Cooler mid-levels, combined with higher moisture and favorable upper-
level ventilation, will support a more unstable environment. As a
result, deeper cloud development and a vertical development in
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected, particularly during
the afternoon when daytime heating maximizes convective growth.
Current guidance highlights today as the most active day in the
short-term period. Nevertheless the wet pattern should prevail
through Thursday. Weakening winds will also increase the likelihood
that any showers or thunderstorms that form move slowly or remain
nearly stationary. If that occurs, localized flooding could develop,
especially across the eastern half and interior sections of Puerto
Rico. Although model guidance support rainfall amounts capable of
producing minor flooding impacts, confidence remains limited due to
uncertainty in cloud cover. If widespread clouds develop early,
daytime heating and resulting convection may be weaker than the
rainfall signals suggest. For this reason, flooding potential is
present but remains under the limited threshold.

A similar pattern is anticipated on Wednesday, with afternoon
convection possible, though current model trends point to somewhat
lower coverage and intensity than what is expected today and
Thursday. Also models indicates a slight increase in 925 mb
temperatures through mid-week, with Wednesday likely being the
warmest day. While localized heat indices may briefly approach 100
°F, probabilities keep values below Heat Advisory criteria. As a
result, no significant heat-related impacts are anticipated during
the forecast period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge building from the west over the
northeast Caribbean will likely displace a trough aloft eastward
and away from the region by Friday, promoting a more stable
atmosphere. This ridge aloft is expected to build and persist
throughout the forecast period, supporting subsidence and dry air
aloft, and reinforcing the trade-wind inversion.

With this pattern in place, an advective trade-wind regime will
prevail. As a result, there is a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%)
chance of occasional passing showers across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands each day. Afternoon
convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico also
carries a low to moderate chance of developing daily, but current
guidance does not indicate a flooding threat at this time.

Overall, expect a mix of sunshine and clear skies with periods of
passing clouds. Windward locations can anticipate occasional brief
showers carried by the prevailing trades.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites. Brief
periods of MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJSJ, TIST, and TJPS due
to increasing afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will
remain light from the NE, with occasional higher gusts near any
stronger shower activity. After 02/17Z, VCTS, VCSH and -RA will be
possible at TJSJ, TIST, and TJPS mainly associated with slow-moving
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A surface trough northeast of the islands will promote moderate
northeasterly winds today, then winds will shift more from the
southeast to south tonight into Wednesday, as the trough moves
westward near the region. Afternoon thunderstorms will form the next
few days due to the proximity of the surface trough. A small easterly
swell will spread across the local waters through Thursday.
Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic
will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast winds the second part of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 438 AM AST Tue Dec 2 2025

A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip
currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small
easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday
onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents
are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore.

Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are
strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of
changing conditions.

There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours, across western Puerto Rico. This activity could
move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of
lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

* The north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin
Islands have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents
today and through much of the forecast period.

* We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the
interior and western PR, this afternoon.

* The US Virgin Islands can expect a slight to moderate chance of
occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with impacts
limited to ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Calm weather prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with mostly clear skies over land and isolated brief
showers mainly over the surrounding waters. A few of these showers
filtered into eastern Puerto Rico, but they produced little to no
measurable rainfall and resulted in no significant impacts.
Temperatures settled into the 60s over the higher elevations and
the 70s along the coasts, while winds remained light and variable.

From today into Thursday, weather conditions are expected to be
variable. Lingering moisture from a departing surface trough will
allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during
the afternoon hours across interior and western Puerto Rico. Impacts
should be minor, with brief ponding of water on roadways or in
poorly drained urban areas. Therefore, flooding and lightning risks
will be limited or remain low today. On Thursday, an approaching
easterly disturbance may bring an increase in surface to mid-level
moisture, though the deepest plume is likely to stay south of the
islands. Due to this proximity, we anticipate a slightly higher
chance for showers, with the probability of widespread thunderstorms
staying low. Overall, Thursday is still favored to be the most
active day in the short-term period, though impacts should remain
under the limited threshold risk criteria.

By Friday, conditions are likely to become more stable as a mid- to
upper-level ridge builds from the west and displaces the trough
aloft. Drier air and a more suppressed pattern should lead to fewer
showers and lower chances for flooding or other hazards. If current
trends continue, the likelihood of impactful weather by the end of
the week remains significantly low.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

The 250-mb heights are at the 75th percentile of the December
climatology, indicating a strong mid- to upper-level ridge. Model
guidance agrees that this ridge will build and persist over the
Northeast Caribbean, leading to a substantial trade wind inversion
and subsidence caused by a denser, drier air mass located
primarily above 850 mb. Additionally, temperatures at 500 mb are
above normal (warmer than normal), also around the 75th
percentile. At the same time, the low-level lapse rates remain
relatively stable, falling below the 25th percentile and even
below -2 standard deviations. These factors indicate a stable
trend that is expected to dominate the local region over the long
term. Based on this information, both threats, the threat for
thunderstorm formation and flooding rain, were assigned to none
for the long-term period.

Under the described weather pattern, there is a likelihood of
having an advective pattern. As a result, there is a high chance
(60-80%) that residents and visitors in Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands can expect pleasant temperatures, with a mix of
sunshine and clouds each day. However, this advective pattern will
also bring a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance of
occasional passing showers, leading to brief periods of moderate
to locally heavy rain in portions of the windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Additionally, there is a low to
moderate chance of afternoon convection developing across the
interior and western parts of Puerto Rico each day; however,
current forecasts do not indicate a flooding threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. Brief periods of
MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJBQ and TJPS due to shower and
thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain between 5 to 13kts from the
E-NE, with occasional higher gusts near any stronger shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

Winds will become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast as
the surface trough moves westward near the region. Afternoon
thunderstorms will form the next few days due to the proximity of the
trough. A small easterly swell will spread across the local waters
through Thursday, small craft operators should exercise caution
across the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas up to 6 feet.
Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic
will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast winds the second part of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025

A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip
currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small
easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday
onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents
are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore.

Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are
strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of
changing conditions.

There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours, across northwest Puerto Rico. This activity
could move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of
lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
341 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

* An increase in cloudiness and moisture will continue to result
in showers across eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection along the western interior.

* Slightly warmer daytime temperatures will persist over the
islands, surpassing seasonal normals, especially in urban and
coastal areas.

* Improving weather conditions are forecast from Saturday into
the upcoming workweek due to a more stable pattern.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all northern
coastal areas, including St. Thomas and St. Croix.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

Overnight weather conditions remained mostly calm under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies. Doppler radar detected a few quick-moving,
passing showers mainly across portions of eastern and northern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which resulted in minimal
accumulations. Minimum temperatures were observed in the low to mid
60s along the central mountain range of Puerto Rico and in the low
to mid 70s across the lower elevations of the islands. Winds were
light and variable throughout the night.

Today, a surface trough will continue to approach the local area
from the east, increasing the frequency of showers from this morning
into the late afternoon hours. The forecast remains on track, with
the bulk of the moisture associated with this trough remaining south
of the region. However, due to its proximity, there is an enhanced
chance for moderate to heavy showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms across the islands. Consequently, there is a limited
to elevated risk of excessive rainfall, particularly over portions
of central and southwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

From Friday into Saturday, weather conditions are expected to
improve as a mid-to-upper level ridge builds from the west,
promoting the intrusion of drier air and more stable conditions
aloft. Nonetheless, locally induced afternoon showers cannot be
ruled out, mainly over central and western Puerto Rico. This pattern
will likely extend into early next week, bringing limited showers
and great weather conditions for those early Christmas festivities
across the islands during the weekend.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the region during the next
few days, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the lower
elevations of the islands and from the upper 70s to low 80s along
the central mountain range of Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track. A strong mid to upper-
level ridge will be the main weather feature, mainly resulting in
a stable weather pattern during the period. At 500 MB,
temperatures in the -5 to -6 degree range and the 850 to 700 MB
lapse rate, two standard deviations from the climatological
values, will limit vertical development. Although very stable
conditions will prevail, a strong surface high pressure over the
Central Atlantic will drag patches of trapped moisture at 850 MB.
According to the global model guidance, precipitable water values
associated with the moisture patches will range from 1.4 to 1.6
inches, close to the climatological normals. Therefore, in the
afternoon, brief passing showers are possible due to diurnal
heating and local effects. On Sunday, surface winds will remain
mostly from the east as the surface high pressure remains in the
Central Atlantic. Veering winds are forecast from Monday onwards
as the surface high pressure builds further into the Central and
Eastern Atlantic.

Since the surface winds will remain east-southeasterly and plenty
of sunshine will be present due to the lack of instability,
daytime temperatures will remain just slightly above seasonal
levels across the islands. According to the global model guidance,
925 MB temperatures suggest warmer conditions from Monday
onwards, with Tuesday the warmest day of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mainly VFR conds across all terminals during the fcst period. The
proximity of a surface trough will result in an increase in SHRA/-
TSRA today, and promoting VCSH at TJSJ/TIST/TISX aft 04/13Z.
Afternoon convection will lead to VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ aft 04/17Z.
Winds will remain from the E-NE at 5 to 8 kt thru 04/13Z, increasing
between 10 to 14 kt thru 04/23Z, with occasional higher gusts near
the strongest shower activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

An induced surface trough just east of the islands will continue
to result in showers and thunderstorms across eastern local
waters. These showers will result in localized hazardous marine
conditions. On Friday, the islands will be dominated mainly by an
extending surface high pressure under moderate easterly winds,
resulting in seas up to 5 feet. Global model guidance suggests
energy from a northerly swell arriving in the northern offshore
Atlantic waters, probably resulting in high seas and hazardous
marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 340 AM AST Thu Dec 4 2025

An induced surface trough just east of the islands will continue
to result in showers and thunderstorms across the eastern coastal
areas during the morning hours today, and then across the western
side due to the afternoon showers.There is a low to moderate risk
of rip currents across the northern and northeastern coastal areas
of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. Croix.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

* Limited shower activity is forecast for today, with mostly
clear skies in the morning and afternoon.

* Seasonal daytime temperatures will persist over the islands
today into the weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80s
along the coastal areas and even in the low 90s across southern
coastal areas.

* Stable weather conditions are forecast for the weekend into
the upcoming workweek, with some passing showers but no flood
threat across the islands.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all northern
coastal areas, including St. Thomas and St. Croix.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today through Sunday...

Conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remained
tranquil, characterized by mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Satellite and radar observations showed a few passing showers moving
over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters; however, some of these
showers moved over the windward portions of the islands, resulting
in minimal accumulations. Overnight temperatures were observed in
the low to mid 60s along the higher elevations of Puerto Rico, while
they remained in the low to mid 70s along the lower elevations.

Today, a mid-to upper-level ridge extending from the west will
promote the intrusion of drier air and stable conditions aloft. This
ridge is projected to be the predominant synoptic feature for the
upcoming days, thus maintaining fair weather conditions across the
islands with very limited rainfall. Despite these conditions,
locally induced afternoon showers cannot be ruled out over central
and western Puerto Rico each day. By late Saturday into Sunday, a
surface high pressure system will begin to build north of the area,
supporting drier conditions into early next week. However, patches
of low-level moisture will move into the area on Sunday, promoting
the development of a few showers across the region. Seasonal
temperatures will prevail across the region during the weekend,
ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the lower elevations of the
islands and from the upper 70s to low 80s along the central mountain
range of Puerto Rico. Overnight lows are expected to settle between
the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations and the low to mid 70s
in the lower elevations, ideal conditions for holiday festivities
and the traditional "parrandas" this weekend.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track under a favorable stable
weather column across the islands. A strong and stalled mid to
upper-level ridge expanding in the central Atlantic will be the
main weather feature during the period.These features will hold a
stable weather pattern with warmer conditions aloft and a strong
trade wind cap inversion that limits vertical development across
the islands. Under this pattern, and as suggested by the 500 MB
temperatures in the -5 degrees, thunderstorm activity is not
anticipated. Although a lightning threat is not forecasted,
diurnal heating can still induce short-lived thunderstorms. Although
very stable conditions will prevail, a strong surface high
pressure over the Central Atlantic will drag patches of trapped
moisture at 850 MB. According to the global model guidance,
patches of trapped moisture with precipitable water values from
1.4 to 1.6 inches, close to the climatological normals, will move
in and out of the region embedded in the trade winds. Therefore,
in the afternoon, brief passing showers are possible due to
diurnal heating and local effects. Surface winds will remain
mostly from the east as the surface high pressure remains in the
Central Atlantic, and veering winds are forecast from Monday
onwards as the surface high pressure builds further into the
Central and Eastern Atlantic.

By midweek, as the surface high pressure establishes across the
central Atlantic, a tight in the pressure gradient will result in
breezy conditions. Additionally, since the surface winds will
remain east-southeasterly and plenty of sunshine will be present
due to the lack of instability, daytime temperatures will remain
just slightly above seasonal levels across the islands. According
to the global model guidance, 925 MB temperatures suggest warmer
conditions from Monday onwards, with Tuesday the warmest day of
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conds expected across all terminals during the fcst period.
Mainly fair weather conds expected today; however, few passing
showers moving across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI will
result in VCSH across all TAFs sites thru 05/14Z. Winds will remain
from the ENE at less than 10 kt thru 05/13-14Z, increasing between
12 to 16 kt thru 05/22-23Z, with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today, an extending surface high pressure will dominate the
islands, producing moderate easterly winds and seas reaching up to
5 feet. A drier air mass is also moving across the region, which
will limit shower activity throughout the day. Global model
guidance indicates that energy from an incoming northerly swell
will reach the northern offshore Atlantic waters, likely leading
to higher seas and hazardous marine conditions. An increase in
surface winds will result in wind-driven seas, and energy from a
north-northwesterly swell will increase seas across the Atlantic
waters and the local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 431 AM AST Fri Dec 5 2025

There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents across the
northern and northeastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra,
St. Thomas, and St. Croix. Global model guidance indicates that
energy from an incoming northerly swell will reach the northern
offshore Atlantic waters, likely leading to higher seas and
hazardous marine conditions. An increase in surface winds will
result in wind-driven seas, and energy from a north-northwesterly
swell will increase seas across the Atlantic waters, the local
passages, and the locally exposed beaches across the islands,
including the U.S. Virgin Islands