Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Yeah its weird, but their is hope, im seeing signs of - EPO ridging showing up on ensembles in the 12-15 day range, I think the next 2 weeks should feature more up and down weather ( warm up then a front- repeat etc. ) I do think beyond the 15th is when things change, this looks like a strong mjo rotation into phase 8 , and typically when its a strong rotation, those can feature some pretty significant cold snaps if its in the right phase and other telconnections are lined up, Euro/ AIFS starting to allude to these changes

[Lagreeneyes03]

Models are showing MJO to be in Phases 7 and 8, yet they torch, makes no sense.

May be why Cosgrove's extended forecast showed warming. I was a bit confused by it

[Stratton23]

Interesting, 12-15 day ensembles have resemblance to a - AO/ NAO/ EPO styled blocking pattern

[Stratton23]

im hearing their may be another SSWE taken place around mid december (15-16 ish)

[Cpv17]

im hearing their may be another SSWE taken place around mid december (15-16 ish)

I’ve been hearing mid to late December for the past 2 weeks now.

[HockeyTx82]

im hearing their may be another SSWE taken place around mid december (15-16 ish)

I’ve been hearing mid to late December for the past 2 weeks now.

And it's always two weeks out.

I'll gladly pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today.

[rwfromkansas]

Until Wxman shows up to try to crush our spirits it's hard to get too excited, but there is definitely potential.

My Kansas hometown got 1 inch of snow this morning, and I saw a video from this nearby cute little Swedish town, Lindsborg, that had the same. Many KC suburbs had around 4 inches, so very impressive for this early, even up there.

[Cpv17]

Until Wxman shows up to try to crush our spirits it's hard to get too excited, but there is definitely potential.

My Kansas hometown got 1 inch of snow this morning, and I saw a video from this nearby cute little Swedish town, Lindsborg, that had the same. Many KC suburbs had around 4 inches, so very impressive for this early, even up there.

When orangeblood makes an appearance then it’s game on.

[Wthrfan]

Models are showing MJO to be in Phases 7 and 8, yet they torch, makes no sense.

May be why Cosgrove's extended forecast showed warming. I was a bit confused by it

His Surface Temp anomalies showed much above average with a confidence level of 6 for the south and west from the 6th-10th timeframe. His maps show it to remain warm through the 20th in Texas with decreasing confidence the further it goes out. He is using December 2024 as an analogy (no bueno, was very warm). He does seem to think there will be some cold coming between Christmas and New Years and that January and February could have periods of fun for those of us that like winter weather!

[Ntxw]

39F max so far (unless there was intrahour 40) which if it holds will be tied for record low-maximum for DFW on Dec 1st.

[Brent]

I know you would think the models would look better with the mjo but on the other hand I wouldn't worry about the long range much I mean look what happened to this storm up here lol in 4-5 days it went from a snowstorm to a couple hours of freezing drizzle and maybe a flake as it ends. Kids didn't even get a snow day lol and Thursday night is trending the same way after it looked promising

One of these years we'll get an opposite trend like January was here

[rwfromkansas]

A freeze tonight seems to be unlikely if the drizzle doesn't go away. Come on, need another. Dewpoint above freezing.

[Brent]

Well we got our first snowflakes of the winter at least. Not gonna last long unfortunately

And they are over all that hype for like 5 minutes of flakes

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has my attention a bit more ( 1057 MB high dropping out of western canada, thats a pretty cold run for the central and eastern US, i suspect thats a reflection of the other SSWE thats being forecasted by models, its a long ways out, but im becoming at least slightly more intrigued about mid month (15th or so) and beyond.

[txtwister78]

Cloudy and 50 degrees but with the sun out tomorrow we should climb into low 60's down in this region of the state. Near 70 on Wednesday. Not quite winter down here despite certain models promising it a wk ago but comfortable nonetheless.

Warmer weather still on track this weekend into next week. I'll take mid 70's all day.

For those waiting for some real winter to arrive, I wouldn't hold your breath the next two weeks waiting for it. Warmer pattern likely on the way for now.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has my attention a bit more ( 1057 MB high dropping out of western canada, thats a pretty cold run for the central and eastern US, i suspect thats a reflection of the other SSWE thats being forecasted by models, its a long ways out, but im becoming at least slightly more intrigued about mid month (15th or so) and beyond.

There’s usually like a 2-3 week lag behind SSW’s. So that high you’re seeing would likely be coming from the SSW we just had in November.

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure how good Ryan Maue is but he’s very bullish on this winter.

[Gotwood]

I’m not sure how good Ryan Maue is but he’s very bullish on this winter.

Looks like the eastern half of USA will have a good winter. Hopefully we get a few storms.

[Stratton23]

Mid december and beyond on the overnight Euro/ GFS/ AIFS is starting to make me raise an eyebrow, the blocking showing
up is quite eye popping

[Brent]

I don't see any reason to worry right now it's December 2nd not even technically winter yet for one thing

Also so far we've been on track with first freeze and we're ahead of at least one year I remember here on the first flakes

Which 2 weeks ago it was 90 degrees and we still had 10 minutes of obvious snowflakes yesterday. That's pretty crazy to me... I know it wasnt as crazy as the models showed and was definitely overhyped but still

Also don't forget in February we were well into the 80s before the Arctic outbreak. That's assuming we even warm up which I dunno it's really cold right now lol. Maybe different down there but I'll be surprised if we get warmer than 60s here

And even if east of us is favored initially I bet anything they will get a southeast ridge at some point lol. I know people over there still bitter about 2021 and then they were too far north for the Gulf Coast snowstorm in January so yeah we could be in way worse shape lol