Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

I'm interested in the end of the week if we can just get a little more ridging east of us. Icon is trying to snow too

This pattern is not hopeless is the point here. The cold air is definitely gonna be around our side of the planet at least. It could be a lot worse

St Louis had one of their biggest snowstorms on record in November btw today. It was literally that close

[rwfromkansas]

Decent snow expected 2-4 inches back home in KS on Monday. Things were backing off so maybe a good sign for later once it can get colder.

[Stratton23]

GFS wants to bring back a new - EPO signature in the 10 day range

[wxman22]

Got down to 27 here. Interesting that the 6z GFS and Euro AI are now showing frozen precip in NW Texas with Thursday/Fridays storm. The CMC also shows it.Lets see if the trends continue today or not.

[Brent]

Looking at the Euro mjo forecast I guess we're about to find out if phase 8 really does us any good or not

But yeah tomorrow has trended so badly here I'm hoping Friday is better. How do we go from a winter storm to totally dry possibly

[Ntxw]

Sitting at 34F currently at DFW which is colder than it was early this morning...BRRR last day of November cutting down the average.

We've made progress on the snow cover front. Key areas for us is Montana, Wyoming, Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas up to the Canadian prairies.



What we have seen so far since TG is a succession of cold air masses, each a little colder than the one prior, pivot around a settling +TNH pattern.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the Euro mjo forecast I guess we're about to find out if phase 8 really does us any good or not

But yeah tomorrow has trended so badly here I'm hoping Friday is better. How do we go from a winter storm to totally dry possibly

P8 danger without an actual El Nino is ++PNA. Not a warm pattern by any means but brunt is likely east. 1-2 we do better as long as it's progressing.

[Brent]

Looking at the Euro mjo forecast I guess we're about to find out if phase 8 really does us any good or not

But yeah tomorrow has trended so badly here I'm hoping Friday is better. How do we go from a winter storm to totally dry possibly

P8 danger without an actual El Nino is ++PNA. Not a warm pattern by any means but brunt is likely east. 1-2 we do better as long as it's progressing.

https://i.imgur.com/9y8sV06.png

https://i.imgur.com/RXqUYPy.png

Yeah I dunno I'm still a little bothered by not seeing more of a southeast ridge showing up

It just seems like east of us has been favored(some places over there have had flakes already) while our first even chance is tomorrow

[txtwister78]

Quick model verification check on what the AIFS/CMC had advertised last wk for high temps tomorrow down into Central/SC TX.

Both had highs in the low 40's.

Actual will be low to mid 50's. Tuesday & Wed look a little warmer now also.

Definitely a colder bias. CMC being the obvious

[Ntxw]

Looking at the Euro mjo forecast I guess we're about to find out if phase 8 really does us any good or not

But yeah tomorrow has trended so badly here I'm hoping Friday is better. How do we go from a winter storm to totally dry possibly

P8 danger without an actual El Nino is ++PNA. Not a warm pattern by any means but brunt is likely east. 1-2 we do better as long as it's progressing.

https://i.imgur.com/9y8sV06.png

https://i.imgur.com/RXqUYPy.png

Yeah I dunno I'm still a little bothered by not seeing more of a southeast ridge showing up

It just seems like east of us has been favored(some places over there have had flakes already) while our first even chance is tomorrow

I can't complain. Every December since 2020 has been +2F, +5F, +5F, +13F here...this is not a bad start! If we get another 5F+ December I will scream... . But yeah so far the 500mb west trough/se ridge has not verified well with this couple of early season cold waves, opposite from the long range.

[Brent]

P8 danger without an actual El Nino is ++PNA. Not a warm pattern by any means but brunt is likely east. 1-2 we do better as long as it's progressing.

https://i.imgur.com/9y8sV06.png

https://i.imgur.com/RXqUYPy.png

Yeah I dunno I'm still a little bothered by not seeing more of a southeast ridge showing up

It just seems like east of us has been favored(some places over there have had flakes already) while our first even chance is tomorrow

I can't complain. Every December since 2020 has been +2F, +5F, +5F, +13F here...this is not a bad start! If we get another 5F+ December I will scream... . But yeah so far the 500mb west trough/se ridge has not verified well with this couple of early season cold waves, opposite from the long range.

True I mean we're still below freezing at 11am

Finally...

I do think it's good at least the cold air isn't buried in Europe. It could be a lot worse

[Stratton23]

I think we get a new - EPO pattern to reestablish itself in the 10-12 day range, tropical forcing argues it as does MJO moving into 8, but surprise surprise the GEFS tries to dump the trough out west again with SE ridge, look for that to shift east again over the coming days lol

[Ntxw]

I think we get a new - EPO pattern to reestablish itself in the 10-12 day range, tropical forcing argues it as does MJO moving into 8, but surprise surprise the GEFS tries to dump the trough out west again with SE ridge, look for that to shift east again over the coming days lol

-WPO should keep feeding the Siberian air to Canada and build up the TPV there. There are subtle signs ridging may show up from Greenland to Davis Straits region. That would allow more air south eventually as the month goes on if it comes true. -AO/-NAO. Not ideal we don't get snow or wintry storms out of it right now, but it's not a blowtorch pattern by any means.

[wxman22]

It's past noon and the temp is only 33F degrees, loving this weather My cats also love it as it gives them an excuse to snuggle.LOL.

[Iceresistance]

What is the 0z CFS doing?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Opo.gif

[HockeyTx82]

What is the 0z CFS doing?
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Opo.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Opo.gif

No idea, can you tell us or someone else?

[Iceresistance]

What is the 0z CFS doing?
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Opo.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Opo.gif

No idea, can you tell us or someone else?

It does a monster -EPO ridge that just keeps going

Also a question, is the CFS bad for accuracy but generally good for a general idea of what's coming down the road with the pattern?

[Iceresistance]

Okay, this is the coldest CFS run I have ever seen, -21°F in OKC is WILD


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9OLt.png

[Stratton23]

I wish lol, give me 10’s and 20’s on christmas and i’ll be the happiest guy in the world! A guy can dream lol, it is the CFS

[Gotwood]

Okay, this is the coldest CFS run I have ever seen, -21°F in OKC is WILD

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9OLt.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9OLt.png

Quite the Split lol.