Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Iceresistance]

Good grief

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png

[HockeyTx82]

Good grief
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png

I have no idea what I'm looking at, can you please add some context to your statement and also the graphic.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Good grief
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png

I have no idea what I'm looking at, can you please add some context to your statement and also the graphic.

Im not iceresistance, but its a stratospheric warming that is ongoing or fixing to start. Models have been hinting at it for a while. If it happens, it takes weeks to effect us with maybe cold and winter weather

[Iceresistance]

Good grief
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9j6h.png

I have no idea what I'm looking at, can you please add some context to your statement and also the graphic.

We may have an SSW event, a huge drop of the U wind that could actually reverse and make this the first November SSW in decades.

[Wthrfan]

And now Larry Cosgrove just came out and said no arctic blast late next week is reaching down here because of the SE ridge and that december looks mostly mild lol, good grief

As an amateur weather enthusiast, Larry is one person I follow quite a bit. He seems to be more right than he is wrong. I looked at the EURO AI ensemble this morning. I'm in OK and it looks like it will get pretty chilly here, a few days of highs in the 30s, but nothing crazy. Texas is looking at highs in the 50's and 60s from Central Texas to the Gulf. Do you think this is all going to be a big nothing burger?

[Stratton23]

Wthrfan no i believe its definitely going to be much colder than that, models right now are just all over the place with where this trough that pulls the arctic air down digs , we still are over 8 days from this so except the flip flopping to continue for a while

[TomballEd]

Wthrfan no i believe its definitely going to be much colder than that, models right now are just all over the place with where this trough that pulls the arctic air down digs , we still are over 8 days from this so except the flip flopping to continue for a while

Maybe an end of Daylight Savings Time thing but your post is half an hour into the future.

I'm not optimistic about anything winter down here in November but I was in DFW for the 1993 Cowboys Sleet Bowl loss to Miami. Lightning with sleet that day and not the only time I've seen a thunder sleet up that way. Everybody old enough to be on weather forums in 2004 knows significant weather can happen in SE Texas. I remember an accumulating show in mid-December 2018(?). That snow melted by noon but it sure was pretty to look at.

[wxman22]

As I said the other day, this looks like a ice storm setup to me. It will get cold also. But I’m not expecting anything record breaking at this point. I think up here we may be below freezing for 48-72 hrs with lows in the low 20s or upper teens at most. The bigger story may be the potential overrunning ice storm setup. I wouldn’t be surprised either if the frozen precip line ends up as far as south as Central Texas by the time it’s all said and done.12z GFS below.

[Iceresistance]

As I said the other day, this looks like a ice storm setup to me. It will get cold also. But I’m not expecting anything record breaking at this point. I think up here we may be below freezing for 48-72 hrs with lows in the low 20s or upper teens at most. The bigger story may be the potential overrunning ice storm setup. I wouldn’t be surprised either if the frozen precip line ends up as far as south as Central Texas by the time it’s all said and done.12z GFS below.

https://i.ibb.co/G3pxzLGZ/IMG-0540.png

Yeah, I got a lot of ice, I really don't want that at all

[wxman22]

The CMC may be finally getting onboard with the idea of a winter storm? We’ll see what it shows in future runs lol.

[Stratton23]

so close on that cmc run! Some light snow in central texas though, the trends are good today so far, AIFS snapped back sharply colder as well, lets see what the euro shows

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro AI has snow for DFW
I can't upload the gif here because my provider for it just glitched into where it won't upload into a format I can use

[wxman22]

Euro AI It also shows a decent winter storm.

[Stratton23]

Euro gets awfully close as well

[Ntxw]

The differences sits with what happens with the western trough. The guidance/runs that show little is because they cutoff the low deep into Baja and stall, so it never catches the cold/fully opens the dam. Needs to time right and come out in one big piece before the cold is not attached.

[TomballEd]

Euro gets awfully close as well

How close to Houston? Euro is higher res than the GFS but it would still have some issues this far out with shallow cold air. Looking at AIFS, which I don't think has the resolution issues of physics based models, freeze line gets IMBY just as the rain ends. If Euro is as close as say Navasota with surface freezing while precip still falls, that would mean at least a chance.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd its a close call, freeze line moves in just as precipitation clears on this run, but globals likely are underestimating the cold airmass, but we also have to hope the trough doesnt cut off as NTXW said is a possibility, either way some pretty positive trends today overall

[rwfromkansas]

I read a met saying the AO will be positive. I thought it was headed negative plus -EPO and -WPO.

[Iceresistance]

I read a met saying the AO will be positive. I thought it was headed negative plus -EPO and -WPO.

The AO is going positive per GEFS, but I'm not buying that, there's no way the AO will go positive with this cold launch

[Iceresistance]

Finally got the image. It was a problem on their end, and I had to email them a bug report, they appreciated me for reporting the bug quickly.


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b90g8.gif