Texas Fall 2025

[TomballEd]

HRRR shows semi-discrete ahead of the front in the near N and W suburbs of Houston by mid-afternoon. HREF favor a smidge further N.

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2222.html

MD out for SE Texas where there are some areas of clearing. Best threat looks to stay along/south of a Fairfield, TX to Shreveport, LA line. Northward extent of the threat is limited by how far north the warm front can make it.

[rwfromkansas]

Got another 1.6 inches. Looks like me up through McKinney was the “dry” spot this time.

[Ntxw]

~1.07" for DFW airport which brings the total around 5.06" for the month to date. We'll probably finish the year with December's numbers close to 40" close to last year. Feast or famine but this current -PDO has not been as punishing as the one from 2007-2014 where the lakes suffered greatly.

[TomballEd]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2222.html

MD out for SE Texas where there are some areas of clearing. Best threat looks to stay along/south of a Fairfield, TX to Shreveport, LA line. Northward extent of the threat is limited by how far north the warm front can make it.

That is a watch now. Brief warned storm.

[TomballEd]

I have been hearing thunder for an hour. Main part of cell looks an hour away.

[TomballEd]

The interesting part looks like it would pass no more than about 8 miles N of me on its current path. Will watch for any deviant R hand movement which could bring it closer.

[cheezyWXguy]

Observed tornado warning on that cell headed towards Spring, with cc drop. Rotational signature seems to be weakening some but it’s definitely one to pay attention to

[snownado]

Observed tornado warning on that cell headed towards Spring, with cc drop. Rotational signature seems to be weakening some but it’s definitely one to pay attention to

Aside from The Woodlands area and Conroe, fortunately, it should just miss most of Greater Houston

[snownado]

Got another 1.6 inches. Looks like me up through McKinney was the “dry” spot this time.

Pretty much.

The quick hitting squall line at the onset was the brunt of the event in this part of town, aside form several hours of lighr/moderate stratiform rains.

Equillibriums are funny though, because it was the southern suburbs and Denton that got screwed last time (they got the heavier amounts this time).

[TomballEd]

Never did see a tornado. Trees in the way but it lifted just before or soon after. I know the neighborhoods with damage reports. Hoping 'structure collapse' refers to a shed.

 https://x.com/OfficialYallbot/status/1993044700417126547

[cstrunk]

9 times out of 10 you can bet on an east Texas warm front lifting north much slower than expected. Especially if you see a bunch of rain in east Texas during the morning.

Models a day or two ago had this about 120+ miles north. It's still early but besides that Houston cell that produced at least one tornado, everything looks like junk (most of it is north of the warm front still).

[Brent]

Guys some of these forecasts up here next week are crazy

First off it rains again Saturday into Sunday(the moisture has really woken up lately which is also making me wonder).. and then Arctic air floods in at some point Sunday and there's multiple days below freezing with a winter storm threat into next week I'm concerned it's gonna be way more ice than snow but well see

Gonna be interesting to see if our first taste of winter is actually legit

[Lagreeneyes03]

I saw another graphic by an Oklahoma TV met showing "Major pattern shift" and a huge warmup 2nd week in December. Now that would be wild. DFW weather app showed freezing rain for next Tue/Wed also. Typical December roller-coaster I guess!

[Brent]

I'm surprised this thread is so dead

Talk of a blue norther

[bubba hotep]

I'm surprised this thread is so dead

Talk of a blue norther

I think everyone has already gone to the Winter Thread

[gpsnowman]

I'm surprised this thread is so dead

Talk of a blue norther

Most of the talk has moved to the Winter forum with the anticipation of the early December cold front. Still have fall remaining and some rain chances before December. Bring it

[TomballEd]

SPC Marginal Risk for SETX Saturday.

...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air
advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result
in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and
precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.
Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can
exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep
southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough
should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low
and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern
Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and
instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.

Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support
thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX
coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along
the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest
westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells
and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe
gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

[Ntxw]

Happy Thanksgiving! Hope everyone has a good time with the family and friends. Here's to snow and cold and an unhappy wxman57 winter!

[Iceresistance]

I saw another graphic by an Oklahoma TV met showing "Major pattern shift" and a huge warmup 2nd week in December. Now that would be wild. DFW weather app showed freezing rain for next Tue/Wed also. Typical December roller-coaster I guess!

Which Oklahoma TV met perchance?