Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans

Oh great, I just posted on my personal social a "be watchful" post. Lol.

[Stratton23]

Its mid range, you can see the TPV on the AIFS is in central canada, expect colder trends to continue

[Stratton23]

The signal is definitely growing in ensembles for some sort of potential winter storm somewhere in the state, definitely cant say where though, but interesting days ahead for sure

[Iceresistance]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans

Oh great, I just posted on my personal social a "be watchful" post. Lol.

Didn't February 2021 have the models begin to fumble on the mid-range before returning back to the craziness?

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yep! Especially the Euro, at one point the Euro completely lost the cold and had most of texas in the 60’s and low 70’s hahahaha, considering all of the models have the TPV lobe setting up close to hudson bay, id would expect models to see the true magnitude of the cold as we get closer in time, happens every year

[Ntxw]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans

Oh great, I just posted on my personal social a "be watchful" post. Lol.

Didn't February 2021 have the models begin to fumble on the mid-range before returning back to the craziness?

I wouldn't even call it medium range. Perspective! To me medium range is ~144 hours maybe out to 180 or so. 200+ is long range, and what we're looking at is very long range (used to consider fantasy range) but we've been able to zone in long range using different skill methods that makes it more than just a mere guess. Euro didn't even give us 240+ before. Come a long way with modeling.

[rwfromkansas]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans

Oh great, I just posted on my personal social a "be watchful" post. Lol.

Didn't February 2021 have the models begin to fumble on the mid-range before returning back to the craziness?

Yeah. I wonder why this is. Maybe big events confuse the models at the mid-range to long-range?

[Stratton23]

I suggest reading a post on X by a man named Nathaniel Tabor , he goes into full detail on why he thinks this be a more significant cold air dump than whats being forecasted, basically his main point is that models like the GFS/Euro have some sort of biased feedback issue with the rocky mountains that leads to the models creating artificially raised heights or ridging over the central US which leads to cold air getting trapped and “ unable” to push south, he expects the damn to burst though

[HockeyTx82]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans

Oh great, I just posted on my personal social a "be watchful" post. Lol.

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=t8yweQSVCu4

[Stratton23]

One model to watch this week is the ICON, it has done pretty well with seeing the true nature of arctic air-masses compared to the global models in the past few years, 12z run had a 1051 MB arctic high dropping into the central plains

[starsfan65]

One model to watch this week is the ICON, it has done pretty well with seeing the true nature of arctic air-masses compared to the global models in the past few years, 12z run had a 1051 MB arctic high dropping into the central plains

Interesting times are ahead.

[TomballEd]

The one thing on models losing things in the mid-range that may not apply to an AI model is that the AI model, is a super intelligent pattern recognition model. I assume it initializes off the Euro initialization and a bad initialization can throw off an individual run but I have a feeling Euro AIFS will suddenly rediscover the Arctic blast 4 days out.

[wxman22]

The 18z Euro AI brought back the winterstorm up here.fwiw

[wxman22]

If you extrapolated the 0Z ICON beyond 180hrs it would probably show a winterstorm. With the cold air already in place before energy rounds the base of the trough.

[Stratton23]

GFS coming in much colder, a lot of barney colors on this run

[Iceresistance]

GFS coming in much colder, a lot of barney colors on this run

It ejects the trough early, doesn't the GFS have progressive bias?

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yup and its still having its issues with cold air daming up against the rockies, this run is brutally cold for the western- central US, not a chance that airmass gets hung up like what the GFS shows

[Harp.1]

Not to mention the tropical storm hitting Florida. This is nuts.

[Stratton23]

1054 mb arctic high on the GFS, that is some brutally cold air!

[Brandon8181]

One model to watch this week is the ICON, it has done pretty well with seeing the true nature of arctic air-masses compared to the global models in the past few years, 12z run had a 1051 MB arctic high dropping into the central plains

ICON seemed to do very well particularly last year. Seemed liked if I remember right other models were locking on to something and ICON went a different direction and ICON was the winner.