Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yup, also the GEFS continues to trend colder , wouldn’t be shocked to see a winter storm signal grow on the models for texas as well

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yup, also the GEFS continues to trend colder , wouldn’t be shocked to see a winter storm signal grow on the models for texas as well

Sounds good. We definitely deserve some exciting weather around SE TX. This weather has been straight cheeks going on 3 months now. We can’t even get any rain down here.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Cpv17 yup, also the GEFS continues to trend colder , wouldn’t be shocked to see a winter storm signal grow on the models for texas as well

Im ready for some action. Its still mid-end of November.

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh GEFS

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9uQg.gif

[Stratton23]

Im officially intrigued now, pretty impressive GEFS signal for wintry mischief along with the arctic cold

[Cpv17]

Uh oh GEFS
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9uQg.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9uQg.gif

I love Barney

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't worry too much about the long range model noise. The analogs and trends favor cold from the high plains to the southern plains. Some op runs will be too progressive, others holds back too much. Ridging on and off the western North American coast is favorable

[Stratton23]

Ntxw good points, its easy to get caught up in the OP runs, and i definitely still do lol , the ensembles are still the best guidance to go with at this range, though it is nice to see a wet signal showing up on the ensembles, dont want it to be too cold because that could really suppress things

[wxman22]

Interesting…

[Ntxw]

OPs are now becoming more consistent an early season (Dec start) cold air mass will take trajectory down the plains, due to a large sprawling trough to the west/southwest. Structure and behavior of this trough will have winter storm implications. It's always about timing, definitely a ticket to watch.

This is still a 10-14 day forecast but the signal is quite strong.

[wxman22]

The Operational GFS has the winter storm the Euro AI has been showing around the beginning of December. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend.

[Iceresistance]

Would that be crazy if the MJO stalls in Phase 7?


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg

[Cpv17]

Would that be crazy if the MJO stalls in Phase 7?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg

What does phase 7 and 8 look like for Texas? All I keep hearing about is phase 8 needs to happen, but that’s coming from all those EC people on X.

[Ntxw]

Would that be crazy if the MJO stalls in Phase 7?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg

What does phase 7 and 8 look like for Texas? All I keep hearing about is phase 8 needs to happen, but that’s coming from all those EC people on X.

It's tricky, our biggest outbreaks are P6 going into P7 and weakening. P8 is generally good for the eastern CONUS as the forcing shifts to the Atlantic side. The winters where you hear of +PNA, cold but not brutal for us, always core to the east is P8.

[rwfromkansas]

Would that be crazy if the MJO stalls in Phase 7?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g4a.jpg

I can never figure out where it is currently when I look at this, so many numbers. Lol. I read somewhere you want it to go just past 7 for a good SSW event, but we can still get cold in 7 IRRC.

[Stratton23]

Holy smokes AIFS!! Coldest run yet, bottom completely falls out, widespread barneys colors across all of texas and it sticks around for some time

[Ntxw]

Holy smokes AIFS!! Coldest run yet, bottom completely falls out, widespread barneys colors across all of texas and it sticks around for some time

It's happened several times the past few winters we have criticized the models for trying to shove the big dome of HP cold to east up north especially when you have a big trough to the west. Cold goes the path of least resistance and that trough is like a bowl cold loves to sink into. Which is why using the analogs and ensembles, critical logic if there is a trough to the west don't believe the shifting models.

[wxman22]

The Euro AI now has the winter storm all the way to the coast.

[Stratton23]

Euro 12z came in significantly colder, looks awfully similar to the AIFS

[TomballEd]

The Euro AI now has the winter storm all the way to the coast.

Eyeballing 12 hours precip of about 0.2 inches of rain in Harris County after the temp at my house hits freezing. 60s to near 70 means initial rain melts and would be evaporated by 10 knot winds. But it doesn't take much to mess up untreated overpasses, and there a lot of creek and bayou crossings. It'd be nice getting that Tuesday off from school. Of course the kids are prepping for finals (and some have STAAR EOC retests) December 3rd and 4th.

Day off, not enough to take down trees and powerlines, well stocked house, that would be an ideal scenario.