Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TomballEd]

Just cold enough to snow is fine with me. None of my plants are at risk above 25F.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw that would be great! Hope we can get an active sub tropical jet strwam to work with as well

Yeah the equatorward Pacific jet will allow the southern branch to do it's thing since it's forced to go underneath the ridge.

[Ntxw]

Just cold enough to snow is fine with me. None of my plants are at risk above 25F.

https://i.imgur.com/3NweO8c.png

FWIW today's CFSv2 run risks your plants, not that it's reliable in any sense for day to day forecasting but still!

[Iceresistance]

I found this in another weather forum, I surely wasn't expecting 1983 to be an extremely strong analog


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9NJS.png

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9NJz.png

I posted this in the Texas Fall 2025 topic at first by mistake, it was intended for here, oops.

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance im hearing 83 , 2010, and 2013 , this would be amazing

[Stratton23]

I like seeing the SE ridge showing up a little bit, could help to provide some resistance in terms of forcing energy/ troughs to dig out more to our west, as long as it doesnt flex too much a SE ridge could help with over running events/ winter storms across the deep south and texas

[Ntxw]

[Stratton23]

06z CFS unleashes an arctic attack down the central plains, waves of arctic air through the entirety of december, makes sense to me given the teleconnections in place and the SSWE on going, Cosgrove is going for a warmer december even in texas, yeah he’s out to lunch , not happening at all

[rwfromkansas]

06z CFS unleashes an arctic attack down the central plains, waves of arctic air through the entirety of december, makes sense to me given the teleconnections in place and the SSWE on going, Cosgrove is going for a warmer december even in texas, yeah he’s out to lunch , not happening at all

I love Cosgrove, such a nice man, but yep, I think he's wrong here. I don't see how one can go with a warm Dec. with these things lining up.

[Stratton23]

rwfromkansas seems hes mainly going with the GEFS extended for december, but you also got to look at the CFS/ euro weeklies and general ensembles as well which paint another story

[Cpv17]

rwfromkansas seems hes mainly going with the GEFS extended for december, but you also got to look at the CFS/ euro weeklies and general ensembles as well which paint another story

I mean, just look at the teleconnections.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 exactly, they are quite favorable

[Stratton23]

Holy moly the Euro AIFS drops the arctic motherload as the TPV swings down near the central canadian/ US border, barney colors galore, obviously cant say how cold it will get down here, but it looks like it could get really cold

[Sambucol2024]

Holy moly the Euro AIFS drops the arctic motherload as the TPV swings down near the central canadian/ US border, barney colors galore, obviously cant say how cold it will get down here, but it looks like it could get really cold

Just curious. What's the date(s) for that motherload?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 end of november and into the first week of december

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 end of november and into the first week of december

Interesting. Today, I wrapped pipes that had the wrap removed for plumbing work to be done a couple of weeks ago. I didn't bother to put new pipe wrap on until today when I got home from church this afternoon.

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 I think youll be fine for now with pipes but obviously since this is a big arctic airmass thats on the table, will probably just need to watch how temperatures trend as we get closer in time , given its beyond 10 days

[Stratton23]

Unsurprisingly models today have lost the cold in the medium range , I know how this is going to play out, but just wanted to mention this before someone asked why are the models not showing any cold? This happens every time with big pattern changes and arctic air masses.

[HockeyTx82]

Unsurprisingly models today have lost the cold in the medium range , I know how this is going to play out, but just wanted to mention this before someone asked why are the models not showing any cold? This happens every time with big pattern changes and arctic air masses.

Winter Cancel

[Stratton23]

HockeyTx82 yup winter is over, no chance we ever get cold at all!