2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, is early but decided to make the 2026 ENSO Updates thread as members will be interested to know if the forecast for El Niño will come and how strong it may be if it forms.

PDO data

2025 and past years ENSO Updates

ONI data

































 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1987866201880715454

[cycloneye]

CPC 11/10/25 weekly update has NIño 3.4 at -0.7C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

From Kingarabian at the 2025 thread.

Looks like a strong WWB is setting up over the MC over the next 2 weeks. Should reinforce the WPAC warm pull and we should see a strong downwelling KW setup. Still a long way to go though and nothing is certain.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting discussions on there.

Was there ever a time in recorded history when a strong or, at least, significant El Niño came merely 3 years after another strong event? My assumption would be that a warm neutral or weak El Niño may be more likely, but I could easily be wrong.

[Teban54]

Interesting discussions on there.

Was there ever a time in recorded history when a strong or, at least, significant El Niño came merely 3 years after another strong event? My assumption would be that a warm neutral or weak El Niño may be more likely, but I could easily be wrong.

Looking at historical ONI values alone, and mostly looking at ONI above 1.0:

• 1963-1965 (2 years): ONI peaked at 1.4 in OND 1963, then 2.0 in SON and OND 1965.
• 1969-1972 (3 years): Both 1968-69 and 1969-70 were El Ninos with ONI peaking at 1.1 and 0.9 respectively. 3 years later, 1972 was a super Nino at 2.1 in OND and NDJ.
• 1991-1994 (3 years): ONI peaked at 1.7 in DJF 1992, then 1.1 in NDJ 1994.
• 1994-1997 (3 years): ONI peaked at 1.1 in NDJ 1994, then 2.4 in OND and NDJ 1997.

[cycloneye]

[jconsor]

Nice charts, cycloneye. Could you please post links for them? Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/7wKC4zw.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/7IPZ4zd.jpeg

[cycloneye]

Nice charts, cycloneye. Could you please post links for them? Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/7wKC4zw.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/7IPZ4zd.jpeg

Dont have the links as they were posted at the X chat by Eric Webb without them.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1988367081512022310



TC Activity in 1982 was about as you'd expect in the Northern Hemisphere during a super el nino, very active epac/wpac, and very inactive Atlantic. It's still way too far out to anticipate a strong/super El Niño, but things seem to be setting up well for a push towards +enso in 2026.

[cycloneye]

CPC on the november update has La Niña not lasting too long as Neutral conditions are favored to be present between January and March 2026. El niño is up to 40% by JAS.

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1988970114096443779



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI finally resembles La Nina in the atmosphere.

[dexterlabio]

Based on those CDAS Niño indices, no wonder WPAC has been dead (Niño 4 and Niño 3 being very negative)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1989347424071295468

[Kingarabian]

Waters east of Japan are now just slightly above average. NW of Hawaii those waters remain well above average. Need those to cool by January and maybe then we can finally see a +PDO.