Early Thoughts About the 2026 Atlantic Season

[Category5Kaiju]

With nothing alarming or noteworthy appearing on long-range models, it looks like the 2025 Atlantic season may be very close to, if not already, wrapping up. An unusually bipolar season, featuring either very weak tropical storms or Category 4+ major hurricanes, most of which recurved from land thanks to a very persistent troughing pattern that came into place as early as August. And then, turning vicious in late October when the record-breaking and catastrophic Melissa occurred, likely becoming the season's "flag-bearer" storm.

I presume the annual seasonal indicators thread will likely be up by late December/early January, but if anybody wants to start thinking/discussing what 2026 may hold, here's the space!

[LarryWx]

With nothing alarming or noteworthy appearing on long-range models, it looks like the 2025 Atlantic season may be very close to, if not already, wrapping up. An unusually bipolar season, featuring either very weak tropical storms or Category 4+ major hurricanes, most of which recurved from land thanks to a very persistent troughing pattern that came into place as early as August. And then, turning vicious in late October when the record-breaking and catastrophic Melissa occurred, likely becoming the season's "flag-bearer" storm.

I presume the annual seasonal indicators thread will likely be up by late December/early January, but if anybody wants to start thinking/discussing what 2026 may hold, here's the space!

Per pro mets such as Eric Webb and Paul Roundy as well as the Euro model, El Niño may makes its return in 2026, possibly early. However, whereas I’m not saying that won’t happen (it’s very early to predict this), I advise caution on taking the Euro at face value due to a longtime warm bias in Nino 3.4. I’d like to wait a couple more months to get a better feel.

[Hurricane2022]

My very earrrly thoughts about 2026 is that it could be a similar season to 2023. Extremely Long-Range CANSIPS depicts incredibly warm anomalies at JAS with an visible El Niño in the Pacific. I would not be surprised to see another moderately-active season, but with much less impacts to land, just like 2023.

[weeniepatrol]

My very earrrly thoughts about 2026 is that it could be a similar season to 2023. Extremely Long-Range CANSIPS depicts incredibly warm anomalies at JAS with an visible El Niño in the Pacific. I would not be surprised to see another moderately-active season, but with much less impacts to land, just like 2023.

I agree. Multiple signs exist that suggest chances for El Niño in ‘26 are elevated. The extremely strong -IOD, ongoing westerlies over the Maritime Continent, typical La Niña buildup of WPAC heat and thermocline fuel, current climate model guidance, etc. it’s still very early, so this is subject to change.

I am very interested in such a scenario, however. After the 2023 season AND 2018 season with El Niños of different flavors and magnitudes still yielding above average Atlantic hurricane seasons, I want to see how the basin fares during more El Niño events.

[Woofde]

The +AMO and -PDO of the last 10 years have proven to be insurmountable to any subseasonal factors. Until those go I doubt we will see a traditionally below average season.

[Woofde]

The +AMO and -PDO of the last 10 years have proven to be insurmountable to any subseasonal factors. Until those go I doubt we will see a traditionally below average season.

Mega grain of salt warning of course , but if we try to look into next year none of the climate models show any hints of a reversal of either the -PDO or +AMO next year.

[chaser1]

Why not I'll go on the record right now -
2026 - 14/5/2, with Arthur becoming named in May
Notable (strong/destructive) storms: Dolly, Hanna, & Josephine

The REAL question for 2026 should be "WHERE?"
1) Where will the "sweet spots" be where development occurs?
2) What will be the big picture steering patterns in place?
3) What atmospheric volatility (SAL, UL wind, low humidity, SST, etc.) will play a further role impacting where genesis, longevity and direction of tropical cyclone tracks occur?

[Teban54]

The +AMO and -PDO of the last 10 years have proven to be insurmountable to any subseasonal factors. Until those go I doubt we will see a traditionally below average season.

Mega grain of salt warning of course , but if we try to look into next year none of the climate models show any hints of a reversal of either the -PDO or +AMO next year.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20251107/966a123d3beea9ff75f82092d1d4a0d5.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20251107/07de4a9d6a44168a64bb74cd5271c91a.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20251107/9c72958a529f4d7d2e83fc37b2e232af.jpg

All three model runs that you posted also show the Atlantic subtropics much anomalously warmer than the deep tropics (10-20N), though. That said, that had been a recurring theme in many recent years (arguably except 2023), but it hasn't been hurting seasonal activity for the most part.

[ncforecaster89]

I’ll begin by emphasizing that it’s way too early to be making any definitively skillful forecasts for the 2026 hurricane season. That aside, my best educated guess would favor either warm Neutral ENSO or weak El Niño.

Combining that expectation with the continuing AMO+, I’d go with the following:

Named Storms: 12-16 (14)
Hurricanes: 5-7 (6)
Major hurricanes: 2-4 (3)
ACE: 90-140 (115)

Note: Not only is it simply too early for skillful projections, but as we’ve seen recently, the intraseasonal factors are virtually unpredictable even in the medium range.

Lastly, I should mention also that the 1995-2024 averages are 16/8/4 (134.5), respectively. Consequently, I’m currently expecting 2026 to be a significantly below average season at this point in time. I don’t typically provide a “First Look” forecast until early March and I’ll plan to update these figures again in a few months.

[cycloneye]

With nothing alarming or noteworthy appearing on long-range models, it looks like the 2025 Atlantic season may be very close to, if not already, wrapping up. An unusually bipolar season, featuring either very weak tropical storms or Category 4+ major hurricanes, most of which recurved from land thanks to a very persistent troughing pattern that came into place as early as August. And then, turning vicious in late October when the record-breaking and catastrophic Melissa occurred, likely becoming the season's "flag-bearer" storm.

I presume the annual seasonal indicators thread will likely be up by late December/early January, but if anybody wants to start thinking/discussing what 2026 may hold, here's the space!

Will make the 2026 indicators thread on December 1 to coincide with that date CanSIPS run that will go thru november 2026.

[MarioProtVI]

Long range models indicate El Niño chances rising next year, so I think 2026 will likely get Nino’ed, and coupled with the lack of the ASW, might mean we have the first below average season since 2015. I could be wrong though but all signs currently IMO point to this.

[Category5Kaiju]

Long range models indicate El Niño chances rising next year, so I think 2026 will likely get Nino’ed, and coupled with the lack of the ASW, might mean we have the first below average season since 2015. I could be wrong though but all signs currently IMO point to this.

Do you by any chance have or know of a graphic or tool that specifically shows the predicted lack of an ASW? Would love to see it if possible, thanks!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Good lord you're already thinking of 2026????!

[ConvergenceZone]

I think next year will be much more active than this year. This year is one of those one offs that doesn't happen very often in that the USA escaped completely other than 1 tropical storm. It's happened before but it's not common. I think it will be back to what we usually see this year.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think next year will be much more active than this year. This year is one of those one offs that doesn't happen very often in that the USA escaped completely other than 1 tropical storm. It's happened before but it's not common. I think it will be back to what we usually see this year.

It’s possible to have a below normal season in line with the forecasted El Niño background state with intraseasonal patterns that favor impacts to the US. We saw this in 2023 with Idalia, though I don’t think the atmosphere behaved normally for an El Niño iirc. 1992 with Andrew would be a more classic example.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think next year will be much more active than this year. This year is one of those one offs that doesn't happen very often in that the USA escaped completely other than 1 tropical storm. It's happened before but it's not common. I think it will be back to what we usually see this year.

It’s possible to have a below normal season in line with the forecasted El Niño background state with intraseasonal patterns that favor impacts to the US. We saw this in 2023 with Idalia, though I don’t think the atmosphere behaved normally for an El Niño iirc. 1992 with Andrew would be a more classic example.

Oddly enough, 1992 was actually a cool neutral year. But between a dry Africa and the -AMO, it’s easy to know why it was so inactive (not to mention possible lingering Nino effects from the 1991 event). Destructive US hurricanes can and have happened during El Niño years, examples being Lili (2002), Frederic (1979), Camille (1969), and Betsy (1965).

I guess it’s one thing to see whether or not next year is below-average activity-wise in the first place. And even if so, it’s another thing to see if we still manage to get 155+ mph hurricanes and/or powerful storms that affect land based on the recent patterns that Atlantic seasons have exhibited.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think next year will be much more active than this year. This year is one of those one offs that doesn't happen very often in that the USA escaped completely other than 1 tropical storm. It's happened before but it's not common. I think it will be back to what we usually see this year.

It’s possible to have a below normal season in line with the forecasted El Niño background state with intraseasonal patterns that favor impacts to the US. We saw this in 2023 with Idalia, though I don’t think the atmosphere behaved normally for an El Niño iirc. 1992 with Andrew would be a more classic example.

Oddly enough, 1992 was actually a cool neutral year. But between a dry Africa and the -AMO, it’s easy to know why it was so inactive (not to mention possible lingering Nino effects from the 1991 event). Destructive US hurricanes can and have happened during El Niño years, examples being Lili (2002), Frederic (1979), Camille (1969), and Betsy (1965).

I guess it’s one thing to see whether or not next year is below-average activity-wise in the first place. And even if so, it’s another thing to see if we still manage to get 155+ mph hurricanes and/or powerful storms that affect land based on the recent patterns that Atlantic seasons have exhibited.

Huh, good to know. TIL

[LarryWx]

I think next year will be much more active than this year. This year is one of those one offs that doesn't happen very often in that the USA escaped completely other than 1 tropical storm. It's happened before but it's not common. I think it will be back to what we usually see this year.

Yeah, only 20% of full seasons have had no Conus H impacts. The last before 2025 was in 2015. Only 6 La Niña seasons before 2025 had none though fairly recent ones like 2010 and 2000 are among the six. Many more (15) were during El Niño, which of course is intuitive.

So, El Niño significantly increases the chance of no conus H impacts over other ENSO. With La Niña, only 12% had none. That rises to 18% for neutral ENSO and 29% for El Niño.

[wxman57]

I'm hoping for a season similar to 2025, minus Melissa. It was great not having any Gulf storms or any significant east coast threats. I only had to work one weekend all season and was able to take most Fridays off. Let's have a repeat of 2025 without Melissa.

On a more serious note, long range models are pointing toward neutral conditions in the Pacific next season. However, El Nino chances are increasing through the summer. CanSIPS model did a great job predicting the weaker Azores-Bermuda High position (closer to the Azores) this season. That was the reason for the general lack of storms tracking through the Caribbean, with the majority of storms north of the Caribbean and east of the U.S. Currently, it's predicting a similar pattern for next season.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2025110100/cansips_mslpaNormMean_month_atl_9.png

[FireRat]

This is my own speculative take, using the Chinese Zodiac cycles (12 year & 60 year):
2026 - Perhaps east-based season with greater threats for extreme south Florida, especially the Keys, and NC. Could be very interesting for Cuba and Dominican Republic in particular... Sept - Oct 2026.

Season could be more benign for the rest of the CONUS, especially the Gulf.

2026 may take on a general form of 2014, 2002, 1990 and 12 years back each times (Year of the Horse), with the 60-year cycle of "Fire Horse" hinting 2026 could lean closer to a mix of 1966, 1906 & 1846... heavy Caribbean years.

That's my "crystal ball" thought for '26.