Changes you expect in the 2025 TCRs

[Teban54]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't been made yet this year...

What changes do you think would, or should, be made in the post-season analyses of 2025 storms? Peak intensity, landfall intensity, genesis and intensification times, etc?

The thread is open to any basin, even though understandably the conversation will likely be tilted towards the Atlantic and EPAC.

Note that there have been a lot of recent discussions about Melissa in particular, in its own thread. The most concentrated comments start roughly from here.

[aspen]

Melissa has been talked about ad nauseam, so I’ll give some attention to this season’s other Cat 5s. I believe both Erin and Humberto warrant slight upgrades in post season.

For Erin, 145 kt might be a better blend of the available FL/SFMR/dropsonde winds. There was also an eye drop that I believe supported 913mb. Even if the NHC keeps the winds the same, I think there’s a decent chance they lower the official peak pressure by a few mbar.

For Humberto, obviously we didn’t have recon and can only go off of satellite imagery and its mid-920s measurement from the day after peak. Humberto’s highly persistent inner eyewall makes me believe it did not fill in quite as fast as most Cat 4/5s during an EWRC, but that pressure is highly indicative it peaked much lower the prior day. Upper to mid 910s seems like a safe bet, which would support 145-150 kt. Its Dvorak presentation also backs up those wind estimates, having maintained a thick and smooth W ring around a ~20C eye for a good 4-7 hours. However, after seeing how Melissa’s intensity lagged behind its satellite presentation for a while, I doubt Humberto had enough time to ever exceed 150 kt and 915 mb.

[Hurricane2022]

North Atlantic
• Erin: 140 kt/915 mb ---> 145 kt/913 mb
• Gabrielle: 120 kt ---> 125 kt
• Humberto: 140 kt/924 mb ---> 145-150 kt/918-913 mb
• Melissa: 160 kt ---> 165 kt

East/Central Pacific:
• Erick: 125 kt ---> 115 kt
• Iona: 110 kt ---> 115-120 kt
• Kiko: (1st peak) 125 kt ---> 130 kt, (3rd peak) 120 kt ---> 125 kt
• Priscilla: 95 kt ---> 100 kt

[Hurricane2022]

Other basins:
West Pacific:
• Danas: 100 kt --> 110 kt
• Wipha: 65 kt/970 mb --> 80 kt/965 mb
• Podul: 95 kt --> 100 kt
• Ragasa: (1st peak) 140 kt/922 mb --> 155 kt/895 mb, (2nd peak) 145 kt --> 150 kt
• Neoguri: 125 kt --> 140 kt

S. Hemisphere:
• Vince: 135 kt --> 140 kt
• Errol: 140 kt --> 150-155kt

Operational estimates are from JTWC.

[ljmac75]

My changes for "the big 3" (based completely on what I think NHC might realistically do)

Erin - 140 kt -> 145 kt, 915 mb -> 914 mb
The wind change is based on them being slightly generous, the pressure change is based on them figuring the pressure was a little lower but not wanting to go lower than Irma's.
Humberto - 140 -> 145 kt, 924 mb -> 920 mb
The wind change is due to the system pressure being lower than expected when they flew into it later, as is the pressure change.
I wrote a long thing about Melissa but I don't really wanna pretend like I'm an expert or anything, so I'll just do what everyone else is and call for 160 kt -> 165 kt (I'm a sheep I know).

[MarioProtVI]

My expectations:
* NHC comes within an inch of directly tying Barry to the Texas floods (retirement chances would hinge on this matter IMO), but they say it’s "inconclusive".
* Chantal gets upped a bit to 55 kt, as recon found 59 kt at 700 mb just before landfall
* Erin gets upped to 145 kt based on slight extrap but don’t see pressure being changed.
* Humberto gets upped to 150 kt / 916 mb, based on the incredible satellite presentation and the fact no recon was in at peak. Additionally, recon still found it to be in the 920s when it was weakening the following day, indicating that the pressure was likely lower then estimated and likely the same with the winds, so some extrapolation is required here.
* Jerry gets cut by about a day given during the last day it was a "TS" all evidence had suggested it dissipated as it was passing just E of the Leewards.
* Karen gets extended at the start by a day given typical catch up with SS designation.
* The biggest change would be Melissa gets upped to 165 kt / 889 mb. This is primarily based on the fact that recon was unable to fly through the NW quadrant (where stronger winds likely were) before landfall, and two consecutive passes indicated it was slowly coming off a peak likely just prior to recon arriving - first pass found 892, the second 894-895. Accounting for this and the exceptional dropsonde data, the pressure was likely slightly lower a few hours before.

[StormWeather]

Chantal - 50 kts -> 55 kts (off of the 59 kt measurement by recon)

Erin - 140 kts -> 145 kts

Fernand - unsure at the moment

Gabrielle - 120 kts -> 125 kts

Humberto - 140 kts -> 145 kts
(pressure adjustment from 924 mb to my best guess of 916-919 mb)

Imelda - 85 kts -> 90 kts
(similar case to Lesile last year, eyewall and eye briefly appeared solid before vanishing)

Jerry - 18 hours shaved off as a TC at the end of its track

Karen - 40 kts -> 45
(SS time extended back about 12-18 hours)

Melissa - 160 kts -> 165 kts
(pressure at the first pass around peak was 892 mb, second pass was 893-894 mb, leading me to think that Melissa’s pressure peaked at 888-891 mb before recon arrived. I think all of the data wind-wise definitely points to the need for an upgrade to 165 kts in reanalysis)