WPAC: INVEST 99W

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 251030 1800 10.0N 168.7E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

If this is the one but I think it might be located further west, the GFS is showing an intense typhoon over Luzon, while Euro AI showing a recurve, GDM models are split between the two.

[Hayabusa]

Relocated at 00z

99W INVEST 251031 0000 10.0N 154.8E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

FNV3 18Z

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2025-010600ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY
259 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
WITH GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.6N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Latest 00z Euro AI and GFS recurve, while Euro Extreme Northern Luzon

[Hayabusa]

00Z FNV3 looks like this run a majority towards Luzon

[mrbagyo]

Its LLC is fully exposed, though we cant rule out another circulation to form underneath the heavy convection

[Hayabusa]

Latest 06z GFS landfall again in Luzon

[cycloneye]

06z Euro AI-AIFS recurves just east of Luzón, Taiwan and pass very close to Okinawa.

[mrbagyo]

The LLC has totally run away from the convection and is under heavy shear, a new circulation is expected to form way south of the previous one. I dont mind if they use a new number for that one - 90W

[Hayabusa]

12z Euro and GFS over Northern Luzon, while less reliable CMC tracking near the capital region

[cycloneye]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 147.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Hayabusa]

Assuming this invest is still the one developing, 18Z FNV3

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS big intense typhoon over Central Luzon

[mrbagyo]

new circulation appears to be forming near 7.6N, 148E - could become a new invest altogether