Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?

[WaveBreaking]

What do you all think? I think it has a good chance since the inner eyewall has been very resistant to structural changes.

[Hammy]

At this point I think it's entirely dependent on whether the plane makes it there before landfall, but there's a good chance it'll make it there by then, whether we find out or not

[aspen]

It may have gotten there last night. That final eye drop supported 900 mb flat. Even the slightest deepening would put it over the threshold. Whether it still is now or if the NHC goes with sub-900 operationally or in post remains to be seen.

[Beef Stew]

We'll find out in the next hour or so. I personally suspect Melissa won't get there before landfall, but I also wouldn't be surprised if she did. The drops last night supported approximately 900 ( I think the NHC officially went 901)... with the inherent undersampling that comes with hurricane observation I certainly don't think its out of the question that she already did technically go sub-900, even if just slightly.

[kevin]

I think recon will find Melissa stable at 905 - 910 mb. I won't rule out sub-900mb, but it has not gone below the 900 mb threshold even with a sustained T#8.0 appearance during the previous recon mission so I don't think it'll be any different now.

[tolakram]

No, eye is too large for that IMO. I could see around 900 at the lowest. We will know soon!

[Category5Kaiju]

Hot take: It will, but 899 mbar, so just barely.

[kevin]

Yes.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Well, it smashed its way into the 800s. No doubt about it. Well into the 800s

[tolakram]

No, eye is too large for that IMO. I could see around 900 at the lowest. We will know soon!

Really wrong!

[Beef Stew]

At this point, the question is will Melissa's MSLP fall beneath 890 mb...

[al78]

At this point, the question is will Melissa's MSLP fall beneath 890 mb...

That might be ambitious as the core winds are about to come ashore, although it can happen that a hurricane briefly intensifies as it comes ashore, something to do with increased surface friction helping to aid convergence of warm moist air in the eyewall I think.

[Category5Kaiju]

I believe there was a Storm2k member who made a list of the strongest and most intense storms by first letter; hard to believe that for M (previously represented by Milton's 180 mph/895 mbar), there's a new sheriff in town merely a year later.

Also, M is now the first letter to represent more than one sub-900 mbar Atlantic hurricane.

[Teban54]

I believe there was a Storm2k member who made a list of the strongest and most intense storms by first letter; hard to believe that for M (previously represented by Milton's 180 mph/895 mbar), there's a new sheriff in town merely a year later.

Also, M is now the first letter to represent more than one sub-900 mbar Atlantic hurricane.

Here's the said list, unsurprisingly by Kevin.

Here's the thread in which I found it.

[aspen]

I believe there was a Storm2k member who made a list of the strongest and most intense storms by first letter; hard to believe that for M (previously represented by Milton's 180 mph/895 mbar), there's a new sheriff in town merely a year later.

Also, M is now the first letter to represent more than one sub-900 mbar Atlantic hurricane.

The M-curse took a break for a few years but came back with a vengeance.

I think the big questions now are: did Melissa peak below 892 mbar? And did it maintain sub-900 pressures into landfall? As pointed out in the Melissa discussion, the pressure did seem to be rising a bit during the final recon passes. I’m leaning towards Crazy’s estimate of 897mb but it’s entirely possible it could’ve risen to 900+ mb.

[sasha_B]

I believe there was a Storm2k member who made a list of the strongest and most intense storms by first letter; hard to believe that for M (previously represented by Milton's 180 mph/895 mbar), there's a new sheriff in town merely a year later.

Also, M is now the first letter to represent more than one sub-900 mbar Atlantic hurricane.

The M-curse took a break for a few years but came back with a vengeance.

I think the big questions now are: did Melissa peak below 892 mbar? And did it maintain sub-900 pressures into landfall? As pointed out in the Melissa discussion, the pressure did seem to be rising a bit during the final recon passes. I’m leaning towards Crazy’s estimate of 897mb but it’s entirely possible it could’ve risen to 900+ mb.

I'm just an amateur but if I had to guess I'd say that Melissa peaked just below 892 hPa and made landfall just above 892 hPa (though I doubt it went back over 900). And those are just two of several points in Melissa's operational best track that could see revisions: the possibility that at some point early in its life it briefly became a gale-force low before regaining TS status, and the possibility that it briefly became a major hurricane yesterday before weakening again, were both raised in the main discussion thread. I also think that there may have been an initial 900～905 hPa peak on the 27th, followed by moderate weakening prior to the reintensification to its true peak on the 28th, based on satellite data during the recon gap (though this particular point seems less significant than the others).