NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HAFS-B has so far backed off significantly from the earlier insane 12z run.

18z HAFS-A, however, is actually slightly stronger.

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS: though it still has majority to W of Hispaniola, it is a smaller majority than the last 3 runs with it closer to 2/3 of the members there

[AutoPenalti]

18z Euro shifts east at 144.

[Nuno]

18z Euro shifts east at 144.

Everything is shifting eastward for 18z after several cycles of west shifts. The wipers are wiping...

[aspen]

18z Euro shifts east at 144.

Everything is shifting eastward for 18z after several cycles of west shifts. The wipers are wiping...

This whole 18z suite was odd. Hurricane models also shifted a little east, and the HAFS-B weirdly lost the center for a bit.

[chaser1]

I'm curious whether that might be a result of the next short wave dropping in slightly quicker, or perhaps a slight change in the orientation of its tilt?

[Teban54]

18z HAFS-B has so far backed off significantly from the earlier insane 12z run.

18z HAFS-A, however, is actually slightly stronger.

18z HAFS-A is actually the strongest in wind speed among all past runs, by a substantial margin. It has 160 kts, when earlier runs "only" had 150 kts or less.

[CrazyC83]

How does the upper level environment compare to the reanalyzed environment from the 1932 hurricane? Since that seems to be the primary analog right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z CMC, WHAT ARE YOU DOING??? That’s a little too close to South Florida!!!


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[Tekken_Guy]

00z CMC, WHAT ARE YOU DOING??? That’s a little too close to South Florida!!!


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Well hopefully it won’t be heading to Jersey this time.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: still weak but now even further N, doesn’t go as far W, and even turns NNE at the end

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2025 0 14.5N 75.0W 1005 33
1200UTC 23.10.2025 12 14.9N 74.5W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.10.2025 24 16.0N 75.2W 1004 34
1200UTC 24.10.2025 36 16.1N 74.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 25.10.2025 48 16.6N 74.3W 1004 34
1200UTC 25.10.2025 60 16.7N 74.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 26.10.2025 72 16.9N 74.8W 1004 30
1200UTC 26.10.2025 84 17.1N 75.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 27.10.2025 96 17.5N 78.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 27.10.2025 108 17.0N 78.6W 1005 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 120 17.6N 79.5W 1004 24
1200UTC 28.10.2025 132 17.9N 80.9W 1005 24
0000UTC 29.10.2025 144 17.9N 82.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.10.2025 156 18.7N 82.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 30.10.2025 168 19.5N 82.5W 1004 28

[FireRat]

How does the upper level environment compare to the reanalyzed environment from the 1932 hurricane? Since that seems to be the primary analog right now.

1932 certainly comes to mind. Also a Michelle 2001, but on crack. Would be nice to know indeed how similar the upper environment it is to 1932.

[kevin]

06z ICON trending ever so slightly SW compared to 00z (and way SW of 18z which ended on Haiti travelling north). Now ends at the NE tip of Jamaica. Stays pretty weak due to land interaction.

[kevin]

Even with all the recon missions and data so far the models still don't agree on Melissa's track. This is an exceptionally difficult forecast, usually recon data greatly improves forecast accuracy.

[ronjon]

00z Euro smashes the western side of JAM at 926 mb on Tuesday evening then onto NE tip of Cuba and Turks and Caicos. Melissa will be a historic storm for impacts in the Greater Antilles.

[aspen]

Oh my god the 00z HMON is a catastrophic scenario for Jamaica. Just stalls over the island as a Cat 3/4. Not good that the hurricane models have shifted closer to Jamaica during the 00z cycle.

HAFS-A/B both have a sub-900 monster much closer to Jamaica than in previous runs, too.

[kevin]

Oh my god the 00z HMON is a catastrophic scenario for Jamaica. Just stalls over the island as a Cat 3/4. Not good that the hurricane models have shifted closer to Jamaica during the 00z cycle.

HAFS-A/B both have a sub-900 monster much closer to Jamaica than in previous runs, too.

Indeed, let's hope the coming cycles trend SW again because this 'compromise' between the Haiti-bound tracks and the south of Jamaica tracks (resulting in a Jamaica MH landfall) would be catastrophic for Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

My observation of the trends of operational and ensembles is that there may be a consensus building for a sharp turn near Jamaica thru Eastern Cuba.

[aspen]

06z HAFS-A and B are both significantly further east by Saturday than last run (about a full degree on the HAFS-B). They might be caving to the GFS solution.

[Kazmit]

Really getting down to the wire for the GFS. I still think it will be a major bust, but time will tell.