Crazy model runs?

[Ptarmigan]

Has a model ever forecast a sub-900 pressure - for an extratropical cyclone?

Yes
 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1582008472425885697

That one is near Antarctica. Those storms that circle Antarctica are quite intense. I would not want to be caught in one in the middle of the ocean.

I am pretty sure there have been sub-900 millibar extratropical storms in the past.

[Ptarmigan]

Adding this one because of how sadistic it is. 20th Anniversary of Katrina hit.
https://i.imgur.com/EzQQIwf.png

Katrina's revenge?

[Teban54]

I think 12z ICON now fits this thread.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think 12z ICON now fits this thread.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JVpL69W/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh51-180.gif

“Hey hey, no, don’t do that. Don’t hit the CONUS like that. You’re coming with me.”

*grabs the left AOI by the arm*

[Travorum]

I think 12z ICON now fits this thread.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JVpL69W/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh51-180.gif

Dueling majors in the open Atlantic that bring the NATL to 9/4/4 would be hilariously on brand for 2025.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Adding this one because of how sadistic it is. 20th Anniversary of Katrina hit.
https://i.imgur.com/EzQQIwf.png

Katrina's revenge?

More like Katrina's clumsy apology, according to the Onion:
https://theonion.com/hurricane-katrina- ... 819570176/

[Iceresistance]

This 12z Euro model run from September 24th, what I found funny is how 94L (or Imelda if it forms) shoves out Humberto

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bwHTJ.gif

[MarioProtVI]

The latest 18z GFS which has a 1932 Cuba repeat becoming a Helene repeat for the Carolinas because of a PRE while accelerating offshore and then ends as it’s about to hook left into the Northeast Sandy 2.0 style because of a low over KY.

[kevin]

00z HAFS-B for Melissa. 886 mb at +126 hr and still intensifying btw. Welcome back Wilma.

[Fancy1002]

The latest Hafs b for Melissa.

[Iceresistance]

The latest Hafs b for Melissa.

And this one too

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3vZd.png

[Travorum]

12z experimental HAFS-B (HAFS v2.1.1B), I think the deepest model storm I've seen except for the HMON Irma runs and the time that HWRF broke and punched a hole through the atmosphere halfway to space.

[Teban54]

Last 3 HAFS-B runs for Melissa, peak wind speeds within 126 hours. As others have noted upthread and in the Melissa models thread, the 12z run intensifies it even further beyond 126 hrs, and newer, experimental versions of HAFS-B are even more insane.

• 0z 10/22: 889 mb / 164 kt
• 6z 10/22: 900 mb / 144 kt
• 12z 10/22: 884 mb / 173 kt

[MarioProtVI]

Last 3 HAFS-B runs for Melissa, peak wind speeds within 126 hours. As others have noted upthread and in the Melissa models thread, the 12z run intensifies it even further beyond 126 hrs, and newer, experimental versions of HAFS-B are even more insane.

• 0z 10/22: 889 mb / 164 kt
• 6z 10/22: 900 mb / 144 kt
• 12z 10/22: 884 mb / 173 kt

https://i.postimg.cc/zfJK2rK5/ezgif-321568addad3e7.gif

This is getting into Lee territory with the batshit model runs ATP. Which scares me a lot.

[Iceresistance]

Even the EPS didn't want to be left out, I don't remember the last time the EPS had a sub-880 member before

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3vrY.png

[kevin]

So the crazy Melissa runs actually verified...

[Teban54]

HAFS-A run at 6z on Nov 4, 2025, for TD 32W in WPAC. The next name is Fung-wong.

[dexterlabio]

Not only the modelled intensity that is crazy but the size as well. It's like WPAC saw Melissa and said she is not having it.

[Teban54]

HAFS-A run at 6z on Nov 4, 2025, for TD 32W in WPAC. The next name is Fung-wong.

https://i.postimg.cc/PJjpmWsm/hafsa-mslp-wind-32W-34.png

So even though pre-Fung-wong's model runs were as crazy as Melissa's, if not crazier, they didn't verify largely due to the extremely large size of Fung-wong with almost a 60 nm eye. This may have also exposed the storm to other unfavorable conditions more, such as dry air intrusion.

This contrast within a span of 2 weeks shows how miraculous it was for Melissa's model runs to actually verify.