WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

[Hayabusa]

06z deepmind

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

JMA dissipated it but forecast to reform into a TD within 48 hours

[Hayabusa]

Back to TD

WWJP27 RJTD 160000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 13.7N 136.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro AI tracking towards Catanduanes then over Southern Luzon

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 161900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161900Z-170600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AS WELL
AS LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W
WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TC warning

TD a
Issued at 2025/10/16 19:15 UTC
Analysis at 10/16 18 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40′ (13.7°)
E132°35′ (132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 10/17 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35′ (13.6°)
E126°55′ (126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 10/18 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10′ (15.2°)
E123°50′ (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 10/19 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25′ (17.4°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 10/20 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E115°55′ (115.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 10/21 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55′ (17.9°)
E113°50′ (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 131.2E TO 15.3N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Despite the presence of high SST and OHC, good radial outflow, and favorable wind shear, the system still struggles to maintain sustained convection on its northwestern sector — likely due to the intrusion of dry air suppressing convective activity.

[Hayabusa]

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3zWO.gif

Despite the presence of high SST and OHC, good radial outflow, and favorable wind shear, the system still struggles to maintain sustained convection on its northwestern sector — likely due to the intrusion of dry air suppressing convective activity.

It really is struggling, the "Philippine sea effect" seems not that really working this year.

[Hayabusa]

Up to TS

T2524(Fengshen)
Issued at 2025/10/17 19:30 UTC
Analysis at 10/17 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55′ (12.9°)
E127°25′ (127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 220 km (120

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/matteyowwwwww/status/1979271317485687174

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1979330204951810151

[Hayabusa]

Looks like landfall over Sorsogon at 0900z

[Hayabusa]

JMA 15Z changed track again