NATL: LORENZO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OUT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 40.3W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last day
or two (AL97) has become better organized this morning. After
spending most of yesterday as an exposed low-level swirl, tonight a
large burst of deep convection with cloud top temperatures below
-80C has formed near and just east of the center. An earlier ASCAT-C
pass clipped the eastern side of the system, showing that it was
already producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a peak derived
wind of 36 kt. A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes at 04-06 UTC
near the system also showed the improved structural organization
under the cirrus. The subjective 06 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB was
T2.5/35 kt, and the satellite presentation has only grown more
impressive since that time, with the convective cloud tops taking a
distinct comma shape pattern. Thus, advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Storm Lorenzo this morning, with an initial intensity
of 40 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the earlier
scatterometer wind data.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/15 kt, a little
slower than the center being tracked earlier, potentially due to the
large convective burst tugging at the center. This general
northwestward motion with some additional slowdown is anticipated
today as Lorenzo approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridging
produced by an upper-level trough in the path of the tropical
cyclone. This trough is expected to fracture and shift to the
southwest of the system, and Lorenzo should turn northward between
this feature and the eroded mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo
Verde Islands. Ultimately, this ridge should result in the cyclone
recurving to the northeast around it, as it comes under influence of
broad-scale mid-latitude westerly flow. The initial NHC track
forecast is in pretty good agreement with a fairly tightly clustered
track guidance envelope, and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and
Google DeepMind guidance this cycle, a little east of the overall
track envelope.

While Lorenzo's structure on satellite imagery has improved, it is
still currently experiencing about 25-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. However, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance suggests this shear will soon lessen to less than 10 kts in
24-48 hours. Ordinarily this would lead to strengthening given the
sufficently warm 27-28 C ocean temperatures, but at the same time,
environmental mid-level relatively humidity is also expected to dry
substantially as the storm interacts with the upper-level trough
ahead of it. This trough could also still produce some residual
mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer. The overall guidance
is not that enthusiastic about Lorenzo's intensity prospects, but it
is worth noting there is quite a bit of spread in both the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble members, ranging from a very weak tropical
cyclone to a category 2 hurricane. The initial NHC intensity
forecast will try to split the difference, showing little change in
strength in the short-term while the shear remains high, and then
just gradual intensification afterwards. This is higher than the
majority of the hurricane-regional model guidance this cycle, but
under the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HWRF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.0N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 22.4N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 25.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 41.2W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1845 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

Lorenzo has maintained a large area of convection with cold cloud
tops, although the latest GOES-19 1-minute visible satellite images
suggest that the low-level center is near the southwestern edge of
this convection, which makes sense due to the strong southwesterly
wind shear over the cyclone. Overall, Lorenzo's structure hasn't
changed much over the past 6 hours. However, a timely recent ASCAT
pass shows a large area of 40-45 kt winds mainly in the northeast
quadrant, so the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, which is
slightly above the latest objective current satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 14
kt. Lorenzo is near the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
centered near the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther northwest, a mid- to
upper-level trough is acting to erode the subtropical ridge. This
trough is expected to fracture and shift to the southwest of the
system, and Lorenzo should turn northward on Tuesday between this
feature and the eroded mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Lorenzo is forecast to recurve northeastward on Wednesday
as the cyclone comes under the influence of broad-scale mid-latitude
westerly flow. If Lorenzo is still alive by Friday, it could
approach a weakness in steering flow, with mid- to upper-level
ridging possibly centered to the north or northeast of the cyclone,
so the track forecast shows a slowdown with a turn to the east in
4-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement through the 72
hour point, but spread increases significantly after that time. The
new NHC track forecast is slightly west of the previous NHC
prediction through hour 60, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus (HCCA) during that time period. At Day 5, the new NHC
forecast is south of the previous prediction.

Lorenzo continues to experience about 25 kt of southwesterly wind
shear, although the shear is forecast to decrease significantly
later today, and relatively light shear is anticipated from tonight
through Thursday. Ordinarily, this would lead to strengthening
given the sufficently warm 27-28 C ocean temperatures, but at the
same time, environmental mid-level relatively humidity is also
expected to decrease substantially as the storm interacts with the
upper-level trough ahead of it. This trough could also still
produce some residual mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Most of the intensity guidance is not that enthusiastic
about Lorenzo's prospects, but there are a couple of ECMWF ensemble
members and a handful of Google DeepMind ensemble members that make
Lorenzo a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory other than the slightly stronger initial
intensity, and is near the high end of the intensity guidance suite,
showing little change in strength in the short-term, and then
gradual intensification afterwards. The NHC intensity forecast is
still generally higher than the HCCA, HAFS, and the intensity
consensus. There is some possibility that the aforementioned dry
air could cause Lorenzo to dissipate before the end of the 5-day
period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional
models, but the NHC forecast maintains it as a tropical storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.2N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.2N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 21.4N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 23.9N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 26.7N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.4N 34.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 31.8N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 41.7W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong
west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly
exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The scatterometer data
is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the
tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the
storm.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should
continue for about another day. However, by late Tuesday, a turn to
the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. The storm is then expected to turn
northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level
trough approaches from the west. Most of the models show this
trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward
or southeastward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is
generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the
details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next
several days.

The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next
few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the
circulation. In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo
remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough. The NHC
intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low
confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to
the unfavorable environmental conditions. This prediction is a
little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end
of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...LORENZO GAINING STRENGTH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 42.8W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

Satellite images shows that Lorenzo is producing a small area of
deep convection near the center of the tropical storm, with the bulk
of its associated thunderstorm activity well to the east. While the
system doesn't appear that well organized on conventional satellite,
WSF-M microwave images from a few hours ago revealed that Lorenzo
has a small central core with some character. Additionally, recent
scatterometer data indicated a large area of 45-kt winds were
present. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, assuming some
undersampling based on the coarse ASCAT resolution.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 11 kt, and that motion should
continue overnight. A gradual turn to the north and northeast with
an increase in forward speed is anticipated late Tuesday into
Wednesday due to the storm moving around the northwestern periphery
of the subtropical ridge into a faster flow regime. The biggest
change to note to this forecast is that most of the guidance now
turn the system to the east late this week and then to the south as
the cyclone, or its remnants, get trapped within the subtropical
ridge. Little change was made to the previous forecast during the
first couple of days, then a large eastward and southward adjustment
was made at long range, resulting in a sharp equatorward hook of
Lorenzo this weekend.

The intensity forecast is quite challenging. An upper-level low
that has been shearing Lorenzo is forecast to drop to the
southwest, resulting in decreasing shear during the next couple of
days. This synoptic evolution is historically well known for
intensification given the recent formation of the small inner core
over warm waters. However, very dry air is present in the
environment, and Lorenzo should embed itself deep into a recent
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak to the north within a couple of
days. There are credible models that respond to these factors by
weakening this into a tropical depression in a few days, like the
HAFS-A/B, or a category 1/2 hurricane, like the HWRF/HMON. The new
forecast splits these extremes, ending up a bit higher than the
previous official forecast but near the HFIP Corrected Consensus
model HCCA. It should be emphasized that this is a low-confidence
prediction for all of the conditions listed above and the cyclone's
small size, making it susceptible to large upward or downward
changes in a short period of time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.2N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.3N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.6N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 24.3N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 26.6N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 29.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 29.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 26.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo has the appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with the
estimated center exposed about 30 to 45 n mi outside the
northwestern edge of the cyclone's main convective mass. GOES-19
proxy vis imagery suggests that Lorenzo's exposed low-level center
has been moving farther away from the convection to the northwest
over the past several hours. Lorenzo is struggling, even though
SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the cyclone has
reached a lower wind shear environment compared to the stronger
shear it was experiencing yesterday, since the upper low to the west
of Lorenzo has moved farther away. The latest subjective and
objective intensity estimates range from 31-45 kt. The initial
intensity will be maintained at 50 kt for this advisory based on the
earlier evening ASCAT data, but if convection doesn't develop closer
to the low-level center soon, then the winds could start to
decrease.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13
kt. The northwest motion should continue today as Lorenzo
approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn to the north
is expected tonight, with a northeastward motion expected Wednesday
and Thursday as the storm moves around the northwestern periphery of
the subtropical ridge into the faster flow regime of the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly
westward through the first 60 hours, and is very near the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model during that time period.
Thereafter, the forecast is more or less similar to the previous NHC
prediction, showing a partial clockwise loop from days 3-5, as
Lorenzo (or its remnants) rotate southeastward and then
southwestward around the aforementioned subtropical high.

Yesterday, some of the global and regional models like the GFS, HWRF
and HMON, as well as some of the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensemble
members were holding onto Lorenzo through the 5-day period, even
indicating some strengthening over the next few days. However, the
latest cycle of global and regional models all show Lorenzo either
dissipating completely or becoming a remnant low by hour 72, with
fewer ECMWF and Google Deep Mind ensemble members holding onto the
system compared to the previous few cycles. In fact, most of the
reliable model guidance shows a steady intensity for a day or so,
followed by weakening, and then dissipation in about 3 days. The
new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous
prediction, but will not bite off yet on the aforementioned model
solutions since Lorenzo is forecast to remain in relatively low
shear and warm ocean temperatures for the next few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance
suite through hour 12, and then is above all of the intensity models
from hour 24 onward. The intensity forecast is low confidence, and
it's possible that Lorenzo could dissipate sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 27.9N 37.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 29.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 25.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo remains a poorly organized storm over the tropical central
Atlantic. The system is producing a few clusters of deep
convection, one of which is currently over the low-level center. The
satellite intensity estimates have come down and now range from 30
to 39 kt. In addition, very recent ASCAT passes show peak winds of
about 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered
to 40 kt.

Lorenzo continues to move northwestward at 13 kt. A turn to the
north is expected later today as the storm moves into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. On Wednesday, the storm is likely to turn
northeastward when it moves in the flow between an approaching
mid-to upper-level trough and the subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. If the storm survives, the system could turn eastward or
southeastward this weekend on the northern periphery of the ridge.
The track guidance is in fair agreement, and no big changes were
made to the previous prediction.

The storm is currently embedded in a sheared and dry environment,
and those conditions are expected to persist during the next several
days. The model guidance shows little to no strengthening. In
fact, most of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided, and
then opening up into a trough within the next few days. Based on a
combination of the models and the lower initial intensity, the NHC
intensity forecast has again been nudged downward, and now shows
dissipation occurring by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 45.5W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo is really struggling over the tropical Atlantic. The
system is now only producing a few clusters of deep convection as
dry air continues to entrain into the circulation. Based on the
degraded satellite appearance and intensity estimates, the initial
wind speed is lowered to 35 kt.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the north
is expected by tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west.
The faster northeastward motion will likely continue until the
system dissipates in a few days.

Dry air and moderate to strong shear should continue to affect
Lorenzo during the next several days. These conditions should
cause the system to continue to degrade, and Lorenzo is now forecast
to dissipate by day 3. In fact, most of the models show Lorenzo
opening into a trough even sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.7N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.6N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 28.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 29.8N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO HOLDING ON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective
organization. However, satellite images depict that there has been
a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although
these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt.
Given the convection has only just recently returned over the
center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this
advisory.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system
rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an
accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast
period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching
trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and
corrected consensus aids.

The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on
Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins
to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce
organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually
opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up
dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo
opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

While convection associated with Lorenzo has increased during the
last few hours, satellite imagery suggests the circulation is
becoming elongated north-south as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. Satellite intensity estimates are
generally in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be
held at 35 kt.

Lorenzo has turned northward with the initial motion now 010/11 kt.
A turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected
later today as the system encounters stronger southwesterly flow,
and this general motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track is a little to the southeast of
the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

The dynamical guidance continues to indicate that Lorenzo will
degenerate to a trough due to shear and dry air intrusion, with
most of the models showing this happening during the next 24 h. The
new intensity forecast moves up the time of dissipation to between
24-36 h, and Lorenzo could dissipate earlier than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 20.5N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.7N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

Lorenzo continues to struggle to maintain organized, deep
convection. Unfortunately, there are no new satellite microwave or
scatterometer data available to diagnose the state of the low-level
circulation. Visible imagery suggests that the center is elongated,
but the convective remnants are still obscuring the near-surface
structure. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, consistent with
the TAFB and AiDT satellite estimates.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn
toward the northeast with an accelerated motion is expected later
today as Lorenzo becomes caught up in strong southwesterly flow.
Model guidance indicates the system will dissipate within 24 hours,
though this could much occur sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 21.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 23.7N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

The end.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lorenzo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

...LORENZO DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 42.5W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Remnants Of Lorenzo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows that Lorenzo no longer has a
well-defined circulation and has dissipated. Recent microwave
imagery also suggested that the system had opened to its west.
Satellite intensity estimates have decreased as well, indicating
that Lorenzo has lost its organized convection. The initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of these estimates.
The remnants of Lorenzo have turned northeastward and are moving an
estimated 16 kt. This general motion with an accelerated forward
speed is expected for the next day or so.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 23.1N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci